CDs with Highest Third Party Performances

[HAnnA MArin County]

Below, I've taken the results from three of the "major" third parties' best performances in the past two election cycles. Does anyone have any explanations as to why these third party/Independent candidates ran so well in these congressional districts? Is there a history of voters giving such high margins to third-party candidates in these districts? 

Libertarian Party
2008: CA-26
David Dreier (R) 52.64%
Russ Warner (D) 40.44%
Ted Brown (L) 06.92%

2010: CA-28
Howard Berman (D) 69.54%
Merlin Froyd (R) 22.42%
Carlos A. Rodriguez (L) 08.04%

Green Party
2008: CA-01
Mike Thompson (D) 68.10%
Zane Starkewolf (R) 23.36%
Carol Wolman (G) 08.54%

2010: IL-04
Luis Gutierrez (D) 77.36%
Israel Vasquez (R) 14.32%
Richard J. Burns (G) 08.32%

Constitution Party
2008: UT-03
Jason Chaffetz (R) 65.61%
Bennion L. Spencer (D) 28.28%
Jim Noolander (C) 06.11%

2010: OH-18
Bob Gibbs (R) 53.86%
Zack Space (D) 40.49%
Lindsey Sutton (C) 05.64%

Independents
2008: OH-02
Jean Schmidt (R) 44.83%
Victoria Wulsin (D) 37.46%
David Krikorian (I) 17.70%

2010: OH-17
Tim Ryan (D) 53.89%
Jim Graham (R) 30.08%
James Traficant (I) 16.03%

[tmthforu94]

I completely forgot about Traficant until I read this.

[Sbane]

CA-1 makes a lot of sense. It contains Humboldt County and the extremely liberal city of Arcata. It used to have a Green mayor and Nader did very well in these parts.

Can't explain the other two California districts other than Libertarianism finds a lot of sympathy in suburban LA. But that is true of most suburbs in America, so I'm not sure what exactly is going on here. At least in Drier's case, it could be protest vote. And CA-28 might be because the Libertarian candidate is the only Latino candidate in a 65% Latino district.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA-1 makes a lot of sense. It contains Humboldt County and the extremely liberal city of Arcata. It used to have a Green mayor and Nader did very well in these parts.

Can't explain the other two California districts other than Libertarianism finds a lot of sympathy in suburban LA. But that is true of most suburbs in America, so I'm not sure what exactly is going on here. At least in Drier's case, it could be protest vote. And CA-28 might be because the Libertarian candidate is the only Latino candidate in a 65% Latino district.

Yes CA-01 makes a lot of sense.
Anyways, the dynamic of 3rd parties will change considerably in California now that we've gone to a runoff system.

[tpfkaw]

Apparently Bob Gibbs in OH-18 only received 21% of the vote in a very close 8-way primary, so the Constitution Party candidate got a lot of protest votes.

[jimrtex]

Below, I've taken the results from three of the "major" third parties' best performances in the past two election cycles. Does anyone have any explanations as to why these third party/Independent candidates ran so well in these congressional districts? Is there a history of voters giving such high margins to third-party candidates in these districts?  

I've interspersed my comments.

Libertarian Party
2008: CA-26
David Dreier (R) 52.64%
Russ Warner (D) 40.44%
Ted Brown (L) 06.92%

Maybe people who are disappointed when they realize that Dreier is a pretty conventional Republican congressman.

2010: CA-28
Howard Berman (D) 69.54%
Merlin Froyd (R) 22.42%
Carlos A. Rodriguez (L) 08.04%

Libertarians with Hispanic names tend to do very well.  Some Hispanic voters will vote based on the name, while few Libertarians will not vote for a Libertarian candidate because he has a Hispanic name, and Hispanic voters outnumber Libertarians.  The same is not true for Republicans and Democrats, because some voters will not vote for Hispanic candidates, and Republicans and Democrats outnumber Hispanic voters.

Green Party
2008: CA-01
Mike Thompson (D) 68.10%
Zane Starkewolf (R) 23.36%
Carol Wolman (G) 08.54%

Strong Green area on the north coast, and no risk of harm to the Democratic candidate.

2010: IL-04
Luis Gutierrez (D) 77.36%
Israel Vasquez (R) 14.32%
Richard J. Burns (G) 08.32%

This was probably 832 votes.  Gutierrez is not personally likable, and no risk of voting for the Green candidate here if you don't want to vote for a candidate simply because he is Puerto Rican.

Constitution Party
2008: UT-03
Jason Chaffetz (R) 65.61%
Bennion L. Spencer (D) 28.28%
Jim Noolander (C) 06.11%

Perhaps some backlash on a personal basis against Chaffetz.  Chaffetz was Jewish, but recruited to be the kicker for BYU's football team, and then converted to Mormonism.  His father was married to Kitty Dukakis, prior to Kitty marrying Michael Dukakis, and Chaffetz's father remarrying and fathering Chaffetz.  Chaffetz was involved slightly in Dukakis' 1988 campaign.

2010: OH-18
Bob Gibbs (R) 53.86%
Zack Space (D) 40.49%
Lindsey Sutton (C) 05.64%

Don't know.  

Independents
2008: OH-02
Jean Schmidt (R) 44.83%
Victoria Wulsin (D) 37.46%
David Krikorian (I) 17.70%

Jean Schmidt is not a likable person in a strongly Republican district.

2010: OH-17
Tim Ryan (D) 53.89%
Jim Graham (R) 30.08%
James Traficant (I) 16.03%

Traficant was the former congressman, who ran after he was released from prison.  He was always a populist and idiosyncratic which has appeal in a working class district (Youngstown).

[memphis]

They do best in safe districts where your vote doesn't matter anyway so you may as well waste it. Not surprising.

[Verily]

Also worth pointing out that the Illinois Green Party is one of the most organized in the country for whatever reason (probably only the Maine Greens have better organization; the California Greens get more votes but are an organizational disaster).

Didn't know that backstory to Chaffetz. Especially interesting given that he is possibly the most conservative member of the House at the moment.

[Verily]

Oh, and David Dreier probably has a contingent who won't vote him because he is all but openly gay, and the Cynthia Matthews debacle in 2004 probably didn't help him among ultra-conservatives in the district, either.

[zorkpolitics]

A more interesting question, in which districts did a Green or other left leaning third party candidate get more votes then the margin between a winning Republican and losing Democrat?

And in which districts did a Libertarian, Constitution, Tea Party candidate or other Right leaning third party candidate get more votes then the margin between a winning Democrat and losing Republican?

[Linus Van Pelt]

His father was married to Kitty Dukakis, prior to Kitty marrying Michael Dukakis, and Chaffetz's father remarrying him. 

Well, that would have produced quite the backlash among the Mormons.

[jimrtex]

His father was married to Kitty Dukakis, prior to Kitty marrying Michael Dukakis, and Chaffetz's father remarrying him. 

Well, that would have produced quite the backlash among the Mormons.

Fixed!

[King]

I'd imagine protest votes by Ds and Rs in safe districts without having to select the other party, mostly.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A more interesting question, in which districts did a Green or other left leaning third party candidate get more votes then the margin between a winning Republican and losing Democrat?

And in which districts did a Libertarian, Constitution, Tea Party candidate or other Right leaning third party candidate get more votes then the margin between a winning Democrat and losing Republican?

From 2010:

AZ-08

Gabrielle Giffords (D) 48.8%
Jesse Kelly (R) 47.3%
Steven Stoltz (L) 3.9%

CA-11

Jerry McNerney (D) 48.0%
David Harmer (R) 46.9%
David Christensen (AI) 5.2%

IL-08

Joe Walsh (R) 48.5%
Melissa Bean (D) 48.3%
Bill Scheurer (G) 3.2%

IN-02

Joe Donnelly (D) 48.2%
Jackie Walorski (R) 46.8%
Mark Vogel (L) 5.0%

MO-03

Russ Carnahan (D) 48.9%
Ed Martin (R) 46.7%
Steven Hedrick (L) 2.8%
Nick Ivanovich (C) 1.6%

NY-23

Bill Owens (D) 47.5%
Matt Doheny (R) 46.4%
Doug Hoffman (Cons) 6.1%

VA-11

Gerry Connolly (D) 49.2%
Keith Fimian (R) 48.8%
Chris DeCarlo (I) 0.8%
David Dotson (L) 0.6%
David Gillis (IG) 0.4%

I excluded the races with independents (since there's no telling what their political views were) and the Independence Party in Minnesota.

[zorkpolitics]

Thanks.
in 6 out of 7 races third parties helped the Democrats.

[ottermax]

Thanks.
in 6 out of 7 races third parties helped the Democrats.

That's assuming that those third party voters would vote for Republicans... I'm betting most of them wouldn't have voted for either candidate to begin with. Not everyone sees in black and white (or red and blue in this case...)

[memphis]

Thanks.
in 6 out of 7 races third parties helped the Democrats.

That's assuming that those third party voters would vote for Republicans... I'm betting most of them wouldn't have voted for either candidate to begin with. Not everyone sees in black and white (or red and blue in this case...)

In 6 out of 7 races, the third party candidate was completely irrelavant because a major party candidate broke 50%.

[minionofmidas]

High third party votes in close races are caused by weak major party candidates, not the other way round. A lot of their voters are just the type of person who would otherwise vote for the candidate they're ideologically less close to, just because they dislike "their" candidate so much.

You need to excempt situations where people wouldn't have known afore that the race would be close, of course, but there's only one such on the list (Carnahan). Also the Connolly race, where there aren't any third party candidates that broke out and attracted votes beyond the minimum they'll get. (And committed Libertarian or Constitution voters would presumably vote Republican if their party of choice wasn't on the ballot.)