Irish Election Results Thread

[YL]

Louth: Nash (Lab) elected, and has a surplus of 756 which is slightly more than the difference between Fitzpatrick (FG) and Carroll (FF), so they'll have another count but it would be bizarre if it changed the order.  So the seats actually elected will be FG 2, Lab 1, SF 1.

[minionofmidas]

The misspelled O'Keeffe is the first person elected in Galway West.

[Franzl]

Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

[YL]

Kerry South: Griffin (FG) elected with a 1,540 surplus.  Healy-Rae is 1,461 ahead of Sheahan, which I'd guess is too much for the latter to make up, so I presume everyone's favourite Kerry dynasty lives on.

[Hash]

Some rounding.

Why is Labour traditionally strong in southern Ireland than it is in northern Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The south of Ireland used to have a lot of agricultural labourers and they used to form the backbone of Labour support before the late 1960s. Further north we're looking at more in the way of smallholders and so on. And as voting patterns in Ireland have tended to be passed down the generations...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The south of Ireland used to have a lot of agricultural labourers and they used to form the backbone of Labour support before the late 1960s. Further north we're looking at more in the way of smallholders and so on. And as voting patterns in Ireland have tended to be passed down the generations...

Almost true. But I should stress here Agricultural labourer unions. There is also much more agri-industry in the south of the country.

Amazingly, Cork South Central manages to return the exact same party contigent as in 2007. The only consistuency to elect two FF TDs so far, though it looks like Laois-Offaly might do that as well. Oh, the localism of the Irish.

[minionofmidas]

...and you do stress "might" - going to go down to the wire.

Yeah, Labour was traditionally a party of South Leinster and to a lesser extent of Munster - areas that had a landless agricultural proletariat (kind of like Norfolk, then). Labour becoming more a party of Dublin didn't start to emerge until the 60s, and the process wasn't really completed until the 90s (and the merger with the sane wing of Official Sinn Fein Democratic Left. Which then arguably took over the party - Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore both being former DL TDs.)

[minionofmidas]

If we're counting 40s groupers National Labour, County Wicklow was without a Labour TD for just two years ending with the merger with DL - and it was a three-seater for much of the time. By contrast, Dublin did sometimes have no Labour TDs whatsoever between the wars.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

...and you do stress "might" - going to go down to the wire.

Yeah, Labour was traditionally a party of South Leinster and to a lesser extent of Munster - areas that had a landless agricultural proletariat (kind of like Norfolk, then). Labour becoming more a party of Dublin didn't start to emerge until the 60s, and the process wasn't really completed until the 90s (and the merger with the sane wing of Official Sinn Fein Democratic Left. Which then arguably took over the party - Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore both being former DL TDs.)

Basically. Though by the 90s DL had pretty much shed all its republican baggage (and wasn´t supporting North Korea any more).

Wicklow was the personal fiefdom consistuency which elected James Everett for over forty years. An interesting character and the main cause iirc of the National Labour-Labour split.

[Hash]

Also, I recall reading on the Wikipedia that eastern Ireland had more large landholders and western Ireland had more smallholders. Is there any truth to this or is it yet another case of Wikipedia making stuff up?

[minionofmidas]

No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal )

[Franzl]

Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of personality politics and Labour, the Spring dynasty is back in the Dail. Yeah, that was declared last night, but worth a minor note somewhere.

Almost true. But I should stress here Agricultural labourer unions. There is also much more agri-industry in the south of the country.

I sort of assumed that was a given, given 'Labour'

Labour will certainly take back the Carlow/Kilkenny seat lost in 2007, fwiw. Again, obvious, but related to this topic.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Also, I recall reading on the Wikipedia that eastern Ireland had more large landholders and western Ireland had more smallholders. Is there any truth to this or is it yet another case of Wikipedia making stuff up?

When are we talking about here?

Yes I know my unions comment was obvious but it´s important. It´s not like there were no agricultural labourers in the west of Ireland in the 1920s. Much the opposite actually... but they didn´t vote Labour.

[Hash]

No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal )

Does that fact have any impact on voting patterns anymore though?

[minionofmidas]

Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

I'd have to actually do the math to see if that's an appropriate use of "virtually".

Mind you, with all these independents, it doesn't necessarily mean there'll be a coalition. Might be a minority. Can't begin to tell until the dust has settled and everybody's had a good night's sleep.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes I know my unions comment was obvious but it´s important. It´s not like there were no agricultural labourers in the west of Ireland in the 1920s. Much the opposite actually... but they didn´t vote Labour.

True, true.

No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal )

Does that fact have any impact on voting patterns anymore though?

Yeah, because it means there are more farmers in the west.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Richard Body Barrett is about to be elected in Dun Laoghaire. A victory for the Bourgeois Trots.

[minionofmidas]

No no no he won't - all of that FG surplus will go to Mary Hanafin!

Well, hopefully not, but... gotta do it the hard way and actually count those ballot papers yet again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why have more... er... exotic... forms of leftness been unusually popular in Dun Laoghaire for about thirty years?

Talking of Dublin in general, the results in the more working class constituencies are some of the most interesting of the election. Will Epic Fail ever get those votes back?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

[YL]

Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

It is zero: they don't have enough candidates in the remaining undeclared constituencies.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well done to Irish Labour!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why have more... er... exotic... forms of leftness been unusually popular in Dun Laoghaire for about thirty years?

Talking of Dublin in general, the results in the more working class constituencies are some of the most interesting of the election. Will Epic Fail ever get those votes back?

Alot of Boyd Barrett´s initial support came from his opposition to the redevelopment of Dun Laoghaire Baths (a ghastly plan to destroy an old Victorian waterfront and replace them with big shiny modern apartments for very rich people). But despite this I doubt he could have any chance in any other consistuency in Ireland (had things turned out slightly differently BOTH Bacik and BB would have been elected and they would both be unelected in nearly all Irish consistuencies and not just Rural ones). It´s probably a combination of the Sea air, the Monkstown area (which attracts alot of "arty" types) and perhaps the most important, historical residues of the region´s unionism which has easily converted into Liberal anti-Catholicism. Though it does seems that RBB does actually have something of a working class vote down the south of the consistuency - though why that it is, I have no idea.

As for whether FF can take back working-class Dublin, the answer is almost certainly no. For the last 15 years they have been losing these regions at a local level - most of North and West Dublin is already represented at local council level by Labour, SF and far-left councillers more so than FF. It is hard to see how they can rebuild themselves there. What I find even more interesting actually is how badly FG did in working-class urban areas, far worse than they would have done in the 80s with these national percentages - no seat in Dublin NW (now FG and FF free), a seat in Dublin Central but with only 19% of the vote, practically the same in Dublin South Central...