Irish Election Results Thread

[patrick1]

It is down to FF transfers in Wicklow. Brady (SF) ahead of Donnelly (Ind) by 57 votes for last seat.

[they don't love you like i love you]

See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

[patrick1]

Reports are that Laois-Offaly will be 2 FG, 2FF, 1 SF.

[patrick1]

It is down to FF transfers in Wicklow. Brady (SF) ahead of Donnelly (Ind) by 57 votes for last seat.

Looks like Donnelly will take it by a little over 100.

[Хahar 🤔]

See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Ah, but that's what makes it interesting.

[homelycooking]

See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Au contraire, it's nice to have at least a few countries in the world where it's not just centre-left vs centre-right. Often that sort of structure just doesn't work in very pluralist societies, so from an analytical point of view, a political system like Ireland is fascinating.

[Barnes]

See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Au contraire, it's nice to have at least a few countries in the world where it's not just centre-left vs centre-right. Often that sort of structure just doesn't work in very pluralist societies, so from an analytical point of view, a political system like Ireland is fascinating.

I agree. It really is quite...different, and that makes it all the better!

[Kevinstat]

The count's over in Wicklow.  3 FG, 1 Lab and 1 i (Connelly) elected.  Brady (SF) requested a recount of counts 14-19 after the final (19th) count, but withdrew it a minute later.

[Kevinstat]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

Ok, last update for today, with the 12 remaining seats.

FG : 74 to 76
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 18 to 20

Not just realistic worst/best case scenarios now, although either possible final partisan tally (counting independents and indeed all candidates outside FG, Lab, FF and SF as a party) now seems realistic.

FG : 75 to 76
Lab : 37
FF : 20
SF : 14
Oth : 19 to 20

[minionofmidas]

Wonder what the point of withdrawing the recount request within a minute was? If he'd just reconsidered he could have done that before the formal announcement - maybe it was intended as some silly kind of message?

Mind you. With hindsight it's good that Dick Roche got the major recount (it did shuffle quite a few figures, though he didn't benefit) out of the way as it would have to have happened anyways. And the same is true in Galway West (quite apart from the fact that Healy Eames might have gone on to win if not eliminated at that stage)... leaving Liam Quinn as the only pointlessly obnoxious recount hound.

[patrick1]

Wonder what the point of withdrawing the recount request within a minute was? If he'd just reconsidered he could have done that before the formal announcement - maybe it was intended as some silly kind of message?

I think it was because they were told it would not be a full recount.  They realized that there would be no chance of the result changing then and withdrew.

[minionofmidas]

Possible... although after they spent a whole day full-recounting with heightened scrutiny, shouldn't they have realized a second full recount of counts 1-13 couldn't change much?

[patrick1]

Just reporting what I heard from people who were at the hall. 

All told it was a good result for SF. Up from 4 seats last election and just missed on a few more. Hopefully they can build themselves into a robust opposition.

[Јas]

42/43 constituencies complete.

Galway West has a full count - but with the final seat determined by a margin of 17 votes in favour of FG, the trailing candidate Catherine Connolly (i, formerly Labour) has sought and been granted a re-count.

That won't begin until late this afternoon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, I think now we've more or less final results. Just for the fun, let's see how the election would turn out if other voting systems were used :

Party	STV	WTA	SNTV	PR/C	Nat PR
Fine Gael	76	133	79	15	67
Labour	37	27	34	14	36
Fianna Fail	20	0	19	7	34
Sinn Fein	14	3	16	6	19
United Left	5	0	5	3	5
Oth/Ind	14	3	13	2	2 (+3 greens)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together. Work in progress.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.

[Hash]

I'd be interested in this election run under FPTP, though it'd require somebody to divide the country into single-seat constituencies and try simulating results in those.

[DistingFlyer]

In the last couple of years, the famous three most long-dominant parties - Liberals in Canada, Social Democrats in Sweden, and now Fianna Fail - have all had historically bad elections: the Liberals got their lowest-ever vote (though not seat total), the Social Democrats their lowest post-WWI vote (after doing it in 2006 as well), and Fianna Fail is now in third place.

Here's a final map, again shaded by seat number:

[tpfkaw]

In the last couple of years, the famous three most long-dominant parties - Liberals in Canada, Social Democrats in Sweden, and now Fianna Fail - have all had historically bad elections

Don't forget the LPJ!

[Verily]

Yeah, I don't know. The Liberals in Canada and the Social Democrats in Sweden are struggling, but the LDPJ and FF really collapsed in a way neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats have done. (Last I saw polls of Japan, the LDPJ had caught up to the DPJ but only because the DPJ had also become wildly unpopular, and both parties were languishing in the low 20s.)

Striking that every seat bordering Northern Ireland now has a Sinn Fein TD.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

If this will prove true, good riddance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there any chance of a Fine Gael / Sinn Fein government, even if only as a negotiating tool for Fine Gael as they work on their expected coalition with Labour?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance of a Fine Gael / Sinn Fein government, even if only as a negotiating tool for Fine Gael as they work on their expected coalition with Labour?

It would be weird considering that Sinn Fein has the most populist/left-wing rhetoric and would basically oppose anything proposed by FG.

...On the other hand, Irish politics don't make much sense ideologically, so you never know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gerry Adams laughed the idea off on RTE the other day.

[Хahar 🤔]

An FG-SF partnership is probably the only one that could never happen in any situation ever. FG and Lab are traditional partners, FF and Lab isn't any less ideologically coherent (the two parties formed government after the 1992 election), FG and FF are both parties of the right, Lab and SF are both parties of the left, and FF and SF are both republican parties. FG and SF have nothing in common.