Irish Election Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:08:07 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Irish Election Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17
Author Topic: Irish Election Results Thread  (Read 48595 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: March 01, 2011, 04:11:56 PM »

Pretty much. I would think FG/Lab has about a 60% chance of happening, FG minority with FF abstaining and some independents in government about a 30% chance, and anything else around 10%.
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: March 01, 2011, 04:14:40 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2011, 04:18:35 PM by DistingFlyer »

Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

I wouldn't call the Liberals conservative, but the pattern of changing policies to fit popularity is apt - each party (though not so much the SAP) has been in power so often and so long, that the electorate has gotten tired of them, with other parties to the left and right providing a more hard-edged message that elicits more excitement. The desertion of Quebec, which was the reason for the Liberal dominance in the twentieth century, is also a big factor in Canada (and does tie into my previous point).
As well, all of these parties, while frequently changing their images & policies, have not done so as much in recent years, while political climates have continued to change. Perhaps they have all lost some of their capacity to alter themselves, and are now finding themselves on the wrong side of public opinion.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: March 01, 2011, 04:21:30 PM »

True, but the Liberals have never been dominant like the other parties. They were not always the largest party--they have fallen to very low seat totals before. True, they were often in government, but they were nowhere as dominant as FF or the LDPJ, and somewhat less so than the SAP. Canada and Sweden in general also have much stronger democratic-liberal traditions--Japan and Ireland both had dominant non-ideological conservative parties in part because their politics were (are) highly bound up in tradition and dynasties, and both have a disproportionate influence of rural areas in government. Not so in Canada or Sweden.
Logged
patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: March 01, 2011, 04:26:43 PM »

Gerry Adams laughed the idea off on RTE the other day.

Haha, yeah and I think Enda would be downright insulted if he were even asked.  Not only do the politicians themselves hold the other side in contempt, but there is huge animosity among the rank and file as well. You wouldn't find the FG getting into bed with the murderous, commie Shinners and SF wouldn't form a coalition with the fascist, Quisling Blueshirts. Now of course there many people  are more nuanced and are moving forward from history, but there is still antagonism.

Basically no one right now would go into government with Sinn Fein and vice versa. Sinn Fein is going try to build on their gains by knocking a FG-Lab coalition on every cut to services they put forward.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: March 01, 2011, 04:49:51 PM »

I wouldn't call the Liberals conservative, but the pattern of changing policies to fit popularity is apt - each party (though not so much the SAP) has been in power so often and so long, that the electorate has gotten tired of them, with other parties to the left and right providing a more hard-edged message that elicits more excitement. The desertion of Quebec, which was the reason for the Liberal dominance in the twentieth century, is also a big factor in Canada (and does tie into my previous point).

I wasn't thinking of the Canadian Liberals or the SAP. Neither have suffered an electoral collapse* and neither are small 'c' conservative clientelist parties (though there's always been a clientelist element to the Liberals, granted. But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism. What does Fianna Fail, or for that matter the UUP, stand for these days? That's not actually a rhetorical question.

Of course that question has been impossible to answer without resorting for abuse for decades now. The problem for Fianna Fail is that all they had going for them was the Irish habit of passing down voting patterns down the generations irrespective of changing circumstance and the property boom. And when the latter turned into a depression the former was suddenly (and quite obviously) weaker than ever before.

*In particular the 'crisis' of the SAP is really only a crisis by the standards of the SAP. Fianna Fail, however, have just lost over half their support from the previous election. As have, interestingly enough, quite a few of the remaining genuine Christian Democratic parties in Europe, most of which have more in common with Fianna Fail than with their supposed comrades Fine Gael.

Must stress that I'm not playing around with any theories here, just randomly speculating.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: March 01, 2011, 05:01:03 PM »

An FG-SF partnership is probably the only one that could never happen in any situation ever. FG and Lab are traditional partners, FF and Lab isn't any less ideologically coherent (the two parties formed government after the 1992 election), FG and FF are both parties of the right, Lab and SF are both parties of the left, and FF and SF are both republican parties. FG and SF have nothing in common.
Both are Irish parties.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: March 01, 2011, 05:08:59 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: March 01, 2011, 05:20:52 PM »

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years -

Which, of course, is death for a clientelist party. Can't go round dispensing favours if there's no one in a position to do so.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that's one of the things I was trying to get at. Once all of that became irrelevant there was nothing left to rally around if things went down the tubes.
Logged
patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: March 01, 2011, 05:50:47 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: March 01, 2011, 05:52:22 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I donīt disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.
Logged
patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: March 01, 2011, 05:59:08 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I donīt disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: March 01, 2011, 06:02:29 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Failīs base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I donīt disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.

I currently live in Madrid but my family home is in Dublin South.
Logged
patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: March 01, 2011, 06:12:56 PM »

Well, I don't think your vote would have had much impact in Dublin South anyway.  I presume Shane Ross will probably stay independent but vote FG.  So it looks like 5 votes for the pending coalition.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: March 01, 2011, 06:17:58 PM »



2009 Locals for comparison Smiley
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: March 01, 2011, 06:19:50 PM »

Pretty!

---

Talking of Dublin South, votes by party in 2011...

FG 36.4, Ross 23.5, Labour 18.0, FF 9.4, Greenies 6.8, SF 2.6

And the previous Labour surge in 1992...

FF 32.6, Labour 28.9, FG 20.3, PD 8.7, Greenis 3.8, DL 1.1
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: March 01, 2011, 06:27:09 PM »

The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average.

Btw, there is no counciller or TD from FF representating the whole consistuency of Dublin South Central. And there is only 3FG councillers and 1TD (who is a former lord mayor and totally not coincidentially, a complete tool) representating the area. I canīt imagine FF recovering in DSC from this - what is exactly is their īnaturalī base here?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: March 01, 2011, 06:52:01 PM »

The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average

Yeah, that's what struck me as interesting. Of course it might be just as fleeting as that of 1992, but it feels more real, at least potentially.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bribing the homeless?
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: March 01, 2011, 06:55:51 PM »

Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

FF could always try that old reliable... free booze. Itīs pity for them there are much less illiterate people than back in the days when FF canvassers would fill out peopleīs ballots for them. Oh, the 30s how we miss you...
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: March 01, 2011, 07:06:32 PM »

Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

No disagreement there at all.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do we?

Ah, but will they dare that after the fiasco that was free cheese?
Logged
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 653
Romania


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: March 01, 2011, 07:27:02 PM »

Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys. Smiley
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: March 01, 2011, 08:26:32 PM »

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their īnaturalī support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Given my near total lack of knowledge of Irish politics, I only asked because the numbers would work as would a FG-FF option which I assumed would be impossible under the circumstances.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: March 01, 2011, 08:34:25 PM »

I think the time has come to post that picture again:

Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: March 01, 2011, 08:35:08 PM »

Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys. Smiley

It was a merger (in September 1933) of (in order of seats won at the previous election) Cumann na nGaedheal (the successor to pro-treaty Sinn Féin), the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts (tecnically the National Guard, formerly the Army Comrades Association, who don't seem to have been a political party in the strictest sense before "merging" with CnG and NCP to form Fine Gael).  The first Fine Gael leader was a Blueshirt, but he resigned as leader and left the party in September 1934.  He then formed the National Corporate Party, but according to Wikipedia most Blueshirts stayed in Fine Gael.
Logged
patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: March 01, 2011, 09:17:12 PM »

I think the time has come to post that picture again:



Haha, that is classic.  Never seen that before.

To be fair though, Given the current state of the SPL the game only vaguely resembles football Smiley
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: March 01, 2011, 09:40:56 PM »

But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.