Irish Election Results Thread

[patrick1]

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I don´t disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.

[Jack Vance RIP]

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I don´t disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.

I currently live in Madrid but my family home is in Dublin South.

[patrick1]

Well, I don't think your vote would have had much impact in Dublin South anyway.  I presume Shane Ross will probably stay independent but vote FG.  So it looks like 5 votes for the pending coalition.

[afleitch]

2009 Locals for comparison

[Sibboleth]

Pretty!

---

Talking of Dublin South, votes by party in 2011...

FG 36.4, Ross 23.5, Labour 18.0, FF 9.4, Greenies 6.8, SF 2.6

And the previous Labour surge in 1992...

FF 32.6, Labour 28.9, FG 20.3, PD 8.7, Greenis 3.8, DL 1.1

[Jack Vance RIP]

The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average.

Btw, there is no counciller or TD from FF representating the whole consistuency of Dublin South Central. And there is only 3FG councillers and 1TD (who is a former lord mayor and totally not coincidentially, a complete tool) representating the area. I can´t imagine FF recovering in DSC from this - what is exactly is their ´natural´ base here?

[Sibboleth]

The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average

Yeah, that's what struck me as interesting. Of course it might be just as fleeting as that of 1992, but it feels more real, at least potentially.

Btw, there is no counciller or TD from FF representating the whole consistuency of Dublin South Central. And there is only 3FG councillers and 1TD (who is a former lord mayor and totally not coincidentially, a complete tool) representating the area. I can´t imagine FF recovering in DSC from this - what is exactly is their ´natural´ base here?

Bribing the homeless?

[Jack Vance RIP]

Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

FF could always try that old reliable... free booze. It´s pity for them there are much less illiterate people than back in the days when FF canvassers would fill out people´s ballots for them. Oh, the 30s how we miss you...

[Sibboleth]

Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

No disagreement there at all.

FF could always try that old reliable... free booze. It´s pity for them there are much less illiterate people than back in the days when FF canvassers would fill out people´s ballots for them. Oh, the 30s how we miss you...

Do we?

Ah, but will they dare that after the fiasco that was free cheese?

[Die-hard Clockworkfan]

Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys.

[True Federalist]

FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Given my near total lack of knowledge of Irish politics, I only asked because the numbers would work as would a FG-FF option which I assumed would be impossible under the circumstances.

[Sibboleth]

I think the time has come to post that picture again:

[Kevinstat]

Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys.

It was a merger (in September 1933) of (in order of seats won at the previous election) Cumann na nGaedheal (the successor to pro-treaty Sinn Féin), the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts (tecnically the National Guard, formerly the Army Comrades Association, who don't seem to have been a political party in the strictest sense before "merging" with CnG and NCP to form Fine Gael).  The first Fine Gael leader was a Blueshirt, but he resigned as leader and left the party in September 1934.  He then formed the National Corporate Party, but according to Wikipedia most Blueshirts stayed in Fine Gael.

[patrick1]

I think the time has come to post that picture again:

Haha, that is classic.  Never seen that before.

To be fair though, Given the current state of the SPL the game only vaguely resembles football

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.

[Sibboleth]

But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.

No, revisionism was a reference to the Social Democrats.

[Vasall des Midas]

Presenting the recount results now... after the third round, Connolly has narrowed the gap by five votes.

[Vasall des Midas]

And I need to leave the house. Galway, you have wronged me. I vow eternal vengeance on thee.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.

No, revisionism was a reference to the Social Democrats.

Ah, yes, that would make much more sense.

[Јas]

Recount in Galway over - Kyne's 17 vote lead was maintained - so that concludes the counting.
The overall result:

	2011	2007
Fine Gael	76	51
Labour	37	20
Fianna Fáil	20	77
Sinn Féin	14	4
United Left	5
Independents	14	5
Green		6
PD		2

[Formerly Californian Tony]

As the counts are now definitive, another update of my seat counts with other voting systems. I'll try to finish PR/constituency as soon as possible.

Party	STV	WTA	SNTV	PR/C	NPR1	NPR2
Fine Gael	76	132	79	64	67	64
Labour	37	27	34	33	36	35
Fianna Fail	20	1	19	37	33	32
Sinn Fein	14	3	16	18	18	18
United Left	5	0	5	4	5	5
Oth/Ind	14	3	13	10	7 (3G)	12 (3G)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Bumping this because I've eventually finished my PR by constituency figure. I've also made two forms of national PR : one with a threshold of 0.6% (ie 1/165), excluding lists and independents who have got less than around 13,500 votes. The other which is pure St Lagüe. As you see, the only difference is the number of independents.

General note : in every system I've made sure to exclude the CC's seat from the count, so that FF get one seat more than "deserved". For constituency system, I've granted Kirk an immediate election in Louth and shared the 4 remaining seats as if it were a normal election.

[Kevinstat]

It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.

With STV, it's true indeed (due to epically poor FF transfers). With PR though, FF gets two seats (one elected + the CC).