Irish Election Results Thread

[Verily]

Full Dublin West first preferences:

Burton (Lab) - 9627 (22.7%) Elected
Varadkar (FG) - 8359 (19.7%)
Higgins (Soc) - 8084 (19.0%)
Lenihan (FF) - 6421 (15.1%)
Denison (FG) - 3190 (7.5%)
Nulty (Lab) - 2686 (6.3%)
Donnelly (SF) - 2597 (6.1%)
McGuinness (FF) - 623 (1.5%)
O'Gorman (Grn) - 605 (1.4%)
Esebamen (Ind) - 280 (0.7%)

Look like 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc, 1 FF unless anti-FF transfers are very, very strong, in which case the last seat could go to FG or Lab.

[Verily]

Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

[Verily]

Longford-Westmeath first count

Willie Penrose (Lab) 19.9%
James Bannon (FG) 15.9%
Peter Burke (FG) 11.6%
Nicky McFadden (FG) 10.8%
Paul Hogan (SF) 7.5%
Robert Troy (FF) 7.3%
Mae Sexton (Lab) 6.8%
Peter Kelly (FF) 6.7%
Mary O'Rourke (FF) 5.4%
Siobhan Kinahan (Grn) 0.5%
Others 7.7%

Could be 3 FG, 1 Lab. FF also in contention for the last seat, though, especially if most of Mae Sexton's vote is ex-PD like she is.

[Verily]

Carlow-Kilkenny

JP Phelan (FG) 15.4%
Hogan (FG) 14.4%
McGuinness (FF) 12.6%
A Phelan (Lab) 11%
Deering (FG) 10.6%
Aylward (FF) 9.3%
Murnane O'Connor (FF) 6.1%
Funchion (SF) 5.3%
Hurley (Lab) 4.9%
Cassin (SF) 4%
White (Grn) 2.8%

Hard to know what that portends. At least 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF, likely, then one seat between FG and FF.

[Verily]

Yeah, big fail by both FG and Lab running only one candidate each in Kildare South. Maybe their surpluses will go heavily to Paddy Kennedy?

[Verily]

So far, of the handful of completed voted counting constituencies, I haven't found a single case where the elected members were any different than the first count finishers. In other words, the results wouldn't be different had a Single Non-transferable ballot been used.  I'm wondering how often the tranferable part plays a roll, and pushes someone ahead to win a seat when they were trailing for that seat after the first count.
    I know in Australia House of Rep single seat districts its often the Green vote that pushes Labour candidates ahead of National or Liberal candidates in some districts, but how often in Ireland is it significant.

Watch Galway East and Kerry South.

Wicklow finally completes its count - making it all 43 constituencies to declare - and as all the world was hoping Dick Roche failed epically. Not even close to retaining his seat (5.5%).

Also Dublin SE. The elected second Labour TD was in fifth on first preferences, behind the defeated incumbent FF TD in fourth.

Edit: And in Meath West, the second FG TD elected was in fourth to begin but passed the third-placed second Labour candidate to be elected in that three-seater.

As to the above, most seats FG has ever won before was 70, in November 1982 (Jas quoted the February 1982 numbers; FG actually got more votes (39.2%) and seats in the second election that year)--which they seem certain to surpass.

[Verily]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

[Verily]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

No, lets not. What has Fine Gael ever done? I am leery of their supposed solutions.

Sure. I want FG to win outright so Labour can be the opposition and Ireland can get a real party system. Implicit in that is the assumption that FG will f' up, which is really inevitable whether Labour is in government or not (but, if Labour are in government, FF will make a comeback when FG f's up.)

[Verily]

Yeah, I don't know. The Liberals in Canada and the Social Democrats in Sweden are struggling, but the LDPJ and FF really collapsed in a way neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats have done. (Last I saw polls of Japan, the LDPJ had caught up to the DPJ but only because the DPJ had also become wildly unpopular, and both parties were languishing in the low 20s.)

Striking that every seat bordering Northern Ireland now has a Sinn Fein TD.

[Verily]

Pretty much. I would think FG/Lab has about a 60% chance of happening, FG minority with FF abstaining and some independents in government about a 30% chance, and anything else around 10%.

[Verily]

True, but the Liberals have never been dominant like the other parties. They were not always the largest party--they have fallen to very low seat totals before. True, they were often in government, but they were nowhere as dominant as FF or the LDPJ, and somewhat less so than the SAP. Canada and Sweden in general also have much stronger democratic-liberal traditions--Japan and Ireland both had dominant non-ideological conservative parties in part because their politics were (are) highly bound up in tradition and dynasties, and both have a disproportionate influence of rural areas in government. Not so in Canada or Sweden.