Irish Election Results Thread

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

WOW at how badly FF did in DSW.

Looks almost certain to be 2 LAB, 1SF and 1FG. It will be unless FF transfer in very odd ways.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

woo, FF down 28.5% in DSW. Could Brian Lenihan turn out to be FF's only Dublin TD?

At this stage it looks rather likely. Perhaps only Dublin South (one of only two five seaters in Dublin - the other is Dublin South Central where FF might have their worst result in the entire country) and maybe Dublin South East.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rte.ie has Kildare North up (4 seats):

*DURKAN, Bernard FG  19.9%  10168
*STAGG, Emmet LAB  19.0%  9718
MURPHY, Catherine IND  13.5%  6911
LAWLOR, Anthony FG  13.4%  6882
McGINLEY, John LAB  10.3%  5261
*BRADY, Áine FF  9.3%  4777
KELLY, Martin SF  5.7%  2896
*FITZPATRICK, Michael FF  5.2%  2659
FITZGERALD, Shane GP   1.8%  905
DOYLE-HIGGINS, Eric IND   0.8%  423
BEIRNE, Michael IND   0.8%  422
MURPHY, Bart IND   0.4%  200

Durkan just short of a quota but also certain to be elected in the next count. Again this will be one of those consistuencies where the final seat will be decided by transfers from FF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.

We can if we are trusting the tallies so far (or at least the ones I´ve read).

Varadkar elected on the second count in Dublin West.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Kildare South (3 seats):

HEYDON, Martin FG   33.3%  12755
*WALL, Jack  LAB   27.8%  10645    
*Ó FEARGHAÍL, Seán FF  11.8%  4514
*POWER, Seán FF  9.9%  3793
KENNEDY, Paddy IND  7.3%  2806
TURNER, Jason SF  6.0%  2308
REID, Clifford T. IND  2.4%  926
CUMMINS, Vivian GP  1.4%  523

Bold to indicate elected. FG really missed the boat by running only one candidate. FF sure to get a seat here alas.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?

Yes. But either way the last will be elected way under the Quota.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The right-wing vote was really out in Dublin South yesterday, I see.

Anyway, this is a good time to post Tipperary South (3 Seats. Quota: 25% +1), the first consistuency to declare from Bogland:

HAYES, Tom FG  21.5%  8896
HEALY, Séamus IND  21.3%  8818
*McGRATH, Mattie IND  14.7%  6074
*MANSERGH, Martin FF  13.1%  5419
MURPHY, Michael FG  13.1%  5402
PRENDERGAST, Phil LAB  10.9%  4525
BROWNE, Michael SF   4.5%  1860
McNALLY, Paul GP   0.9%  367

Difficult to know really. Hopefully both McGrath and Mansergh will be defeated though I wouldn´t be too sure of it. Great showing by Healy (ULA).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Joe Higgins elected in Dublin West.

It looks like very few of the (admittely insignificant - less than 700) green transfers went to FF. Hmm...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ross´ transfers, I imagine, would go to FG.

The most boggiest of bogland consistuencies has just declared (Ok Jas, I´ll stop) - Cork North West. Traditionally here FG and FF got 90%+ of the vote between them. This time not so straightforward though however 2FG 1FF is probably the most likely outcome:

*CREED, Michael FG  22.1%  10112
*MOYNIHAN, Michael FF  19.3%  8845
COLLINS, Áine FG  17.2%  7884
COUGHLAN, Martin LAB  14.0%  6421
CANTY, Derry FG  9.5%  4325
O'GRADY, Des SF  7.4%  3405
Ó DONNABHÁIN, Daithí FF  5.6%  2545
FOLEY, Ann PBP   3.4%  1552
COLLINS, Mark GP   1.4%  651

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Limerick City - an amazing performance by Noonan:

*NOONAN, Michael FG   30.8%  13291    
*O'DEA, Willie FF  16.1%  6956
*O'SULLIVAN, Jan LAB  14.7%  6353
*O'DONNELL, Kieran FG  12.5%  5405
QUINLIVAN, Maurice SF  8.6%  3711
LEDDIN, Joe LAB  5.6%  2411
*POWER, Peter FF  5.3%  2303
KIELY, Kevin IND  2.6%  1129
PRENDIVILLE, Cian SP  1.7%  721
CAHILL, Sheila GP  1.1%  490
O'DONOGHUE, Conor CSP  0.4%  186
RIORDAN, Denis IND  0.4%  173
LARKIN, Matt IND  0.1%  59

Certain to be 2FG 1LAB and Willie O´Dea alas.

Also Jas add another to Fine Gael: Durkan in Kildare North.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What happens with Higgins' MEP seat?

He has a registered replacement though I can´t quite remember who it is.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Does it seem that FF is getting hit hardest in the high-growth suburban communities which reelected Ahern in 02/07?

I don´t think so. It is just those are the consistuencies that have declared first. Let´s wait and see.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

Pringle is an ex-member of SF at least that is what the wires have told me. Furthermore, whether that actually means anything or not is another matter...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...

Ah yes. I try to pretend that he really doesn´t exist and is just a character on a satire sketch. It´s better for the sanity that way.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Red Flag flies over Clonmel... Healy has just been elected. The first in Tipperary South. Hayes (FG) to follow very shortly and then probably *ugh* Mattie McGrath (Ind).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Update: Dublin Mid-West. Joanna Tuffy has been elected on the seventh count (what´s taking the rest of the country so long?) and John Curran (FF) has just been eliminated on same count - this is the situation:

Quota: 8.545
*TUFFY, Joanna LAB  8948           
FITZGERALD, Frances FG  7903
Ó BROIN, Eoin SF  6628
DOWDS, Robert LAB  6519
KEATING, Derek FG  6503
*CURRAN, John FF 5513

Three to be elected from Curran´s transfers. Anyone willing to call it?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

I didn't really understand this either...  Apparently there's century-old bad blood between FF and FG, and they absolutely hate each other (the founders of Fianna Fail opposed the treaty creating th Irish Free State, the founders of Fine Gael supported it).  A second reason is that FF is seen as the "government" party and FG is the "opposition" party, and FG would have no reason for existing other than to oppose FF.  Also, since the election can't really be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of FF, it would be seen as violating "the will of the people" for the governing coalition to include FF.

You really need to be Irish to understand this (or at least the social dynamics of many small Irish towns and the countryside).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Even by the standards of the day FFs collapse in Roscommon/S.Leitrim is extraordinary fail. Only 15%. And one of its candidate eliminated in the first count. In Roscommon/S.Leitrim.

@Al: Excellent point though pointless petty inter-generational jealousy and begrudgery counts as a dynamic, no?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cork North Central (4 Seats)

O'BRIEN, Jonathan SF  15.2%  7923
*KELLEHER, Billy FF  15.1%  7896
*LYNCH, Kathleen LAB  14.7%  7676
BURTON, Pat FG  13.6%  7072
MURPHY, Dara FG  12.7%  6597
GILROY, John LAB  11.7%  6125
BARRY, Mick SP  9.2%  4803
O'SULLIVAN, Pádraig IND  2.0%  1020
CONWAY, Kevin IND  1.8%  958
TYNAN, Ted WP  1.3%  681
WALSH, Ken GP  1.0%  524
REA, Harry CSP  0.6%  324
ADAMS, John IND  0.5%  282
ASHU-ARRAH, Benjamin Ashu IND   0.3%  161
O'ROURKE, Fergus IND   0.2%  95

Anyone willing to predict how this end?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin-Mid West just finished as predicted early: 2LAB 2FG. Significant fact was that FF voters were more willing to transfer to Labour than FG and slightly more willing to transfer to SF to FG.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Moyninhan (FF) going to be re-elected in Cork North West because he got an amazing load of SF transfers. Hmmmm....

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I can't imagine why the electorate would want to vote for Healy-Rae.

From this remark, I can safely assume that you have never been to South Kerry.