Irish Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Meath West: Christian Solidarity Party's Manus McMeanmain says he's very unhappy that his party logo wasn't on the ballot paper and was instead represented by an image that he claims looks like a picture of nuts.

[minionofmidas]

What's the difference between the "final tallies" in the results livetracker and "first counts" which we are said not to have yet?

[minionofmidas]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

[minionofmidas]

I may have noticed this before and then forgotten, but I have always mispronounced Finnafoal. I always called them Finnafile.

[minionofmidas]

Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

[minionofmidas]

Way over quota. Where are they going to transfer to? Pringle?

You can't count out the Tanaiste being dumped in favor of her running mate, btw.

[minionofmidas]

Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...

[minionofmidas]

Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...

Ah yes. I try to pretend that he really doesn´t exist and is just a character on a satire sketch. It´s better for the sanity that way.

Like what Western European party systems have always been doing with the Irish one? Makes sense.

[minionofmidas]

Connaughton, Kitt, one or possibly two of the other FG candidates, probably one of the two high polling indies.

You only asked for "correct". You didn't ask for "precise".

[minionofmidas]

Where are you getting that? RTE doesn't have that one yet - but it has Emmet Stagg (what a beautiful name that is) in Kildare N.

[minionofmidas]

Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW, FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.

Cork NC might end up an FF shutout as well - FF incumbent there did well on first pref.s but his transfers look so bad they might as well be negative. One Labour candidate to be eliminated now, after that it'll be a big surplus from the other, incumbent Labour candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if both FG candidates overtake him on those two redistributions - one certainly will. (And after that, there'll be nothing left.)

[minionofmidas]

I suppose special congratulations are due to Michael D'Arcy - though Deirdre Clune might repeat the feat.

[minionofmidas]

In many places it already has. Others plow on.

[minionofmidas]

Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW, FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.

Cork NC might end up an FF shutout as well - FF incumbent there did well on first pref.s but his transfers look so bad they might as well be negative. One Labour candidate to be eliminated now, after that it'll be a big surplus from the other, incumbent Labour candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if both FG candidates overtake him on those two redistributions - one certainly will. (And after that, there'll be nothing left.)

Yeah well, no. Did much better on Labour transfers.

[minionofmidas]

Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).

Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night.

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?

[minionofmidas]

Ciaran Lynch (Labour - Cork SC) becomes the first person to be elected today. As expected, of course - they started the day by distributing his running mate's votes.

[minionofmidas]

Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)

[minionofmidas]

They didn't release the first count until late last night. I think they basically had a full recount on account of the order of also-runs' eliminations before releasing the first count.

[minionofmidas]

Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)

Buttimer's surplus is large enough that they'll have to distribute it before McGrath can partay.

[minionofmidas]

The misspelled O'Keeffe is the first person elected in Galway West.

[minionofmidas]

...and you do stress "might" - going to go down to the wire.

Yeah, Labour was traditionally a party of South Leinster and to a lesser extent of Munster - areas that had a landless agricultural proletariat (kind of like Norfolk, then). Labour becoming more a party of Dublin didn't start to emerge until the 60s, and the process wasn't really completed until the 90s (and the merger with the sane wing of Official Sinn Fein Democratic Left. Which then arguably took over the party - Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore both being former DL TDs.)

[minionofmidas]

If we're counting 40s groupers National Labour, County Wicklow was without a Labour TD for just two years ending with the merger with DL - and it was a three-seater for much of the time. By contrast, Dublin did sometimes have no Labour TDs whatsoever between the wars.

[minionofmidas]

No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal )

[minionofmidas]

Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

I'd have to actually do the math to see if that's an appropriate use of "virtually".

Mind you, with all these independents, it doesn't necessarily mean there'll be a coalition. Might be a minority. Can't begin to tell until the dust has settled and everybody's had a good night's sleep.

[minionofmidas]

No no no he won't - all of that FG surplus will go to Mary Hanafin!

Well, hopefully not, but... gotta do it the hard way and actually count those ballot papers yet again.