Irish Election Results Thread

[Kevinstat]

Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents

Repeating a question I asked in the now-closed thread on this election:

"How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?"

Also, can someone tell me how likely/certain Sinn Féin would nominate a candidate for President if they had the votes to?  I know they wouldn't win, but having a candidate on the ballot in what would probably be no more than a four-candidate race would be quite a coup.  Perhaps they could survive into the second count (if there is one) after whomever agrees to run for Fianna Fáil is eliminated or otherwise finish ahead of that candidate on the first count.

[Kevinstat]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1977?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

[Edited to correct 1974 to 1977 and to mention that this was my 1,000th post on the "new" (post-2003) Atlas Forum.]

[Kevinstat]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?

Yes.  The boundaries for that election were drawn in 1974 (the "Tullymander").  That's what threw me off.

[Kevinstat]

Kerry South 1st Count in:

GRIFFIN, Brendan (FG) 8,808 votes (19.8%)
HEALY RAE, Michael (Ind) 6,670 votes (15.0%)
FLEMING, Tom (Ind) 6,416 votes (14.5%)
*O'DONOGHUE, John (FF) 5,917 votes (13.3%)
*SHEAHAN, Tom (FG) 5,674 votes (12.8%)
GLEESON, Michael (SKIA) 4,939 votes (11.1%)
MOLONEY, Marie (Lab) 4,926 votes (11.1%)
COMERFORD, Oonagh (Green) 401 votes (0.9%) Eliminated
BEHAL, Richard (Ind) 348 votes (0.8%) Eliminated
FINN, Dermot (Ind) 281 votes (0.6%) Eliminated

Quota: 11,096 votes
Elected: 0/4

Fine Gael 14,482 votes (32.6%)
Independents 30.9%
Fianna Fáil 5,917 votes (13.3%)
South Kerry Independent Alliance 4,939 votes (11.1%)
Labour 4,926 votes (11.1%)
Green Party 401 votes (0.9%)

Well, Tom Sheahan's getting "primaried" (not really the same thing I know).  Dissapointing showing for Labour, methinks.  Does Moloney still have a shot?  If she can pass Gleeson and Sheahan and make out well on the Fine Gael surplus, ... is it a reasonable proposition at this point?

[Kevinstat]

The last two constituencies to complete their first count (Kerry South and particularly Cavan-Monaghan) were not strong Labour areas.  Labour could well finish ahead of Fianna Fáil in Wicklow (despite getting less than half as many votes as Fianna Fáil's in 2007) and should crush FF in Dublin South Central.  I'm confident that Labour will finish second in first preferences nationwide.

[Kevinstat]

And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

2 Lab (Bryne (already elected) and Conaghan), 1 FG (Byrne), 1 PBP (Collins), 1 SF (Ó Snodaigh)?

[Kevinstat]

Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.

Does the quota go down when there are exhausted ballots?  Otherwise I can't see why a 6th count was necessary in Kerry South.

[Kevinstat]

The quota is not amended.

Griffin's surplus was 1540. Healy-Rae's lead on Sheehan (a third defeated FG incumbent, btw) was only 1461. You're right that Fleming was actually safe by then, but declaring someone elected without a quota when there are still things to count is apparently not done.

Thanks.  My quick math was bad.  I thought Griffin's surplus was much smaller.

[Kevinstat]

Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?

[Kevinstat]

It looks like Fidelma Healy Eames (FG-Galway West) requested a fell recount before she (must be a she) was eliminated, as the Labour surplus could technically have put her ahead of running-mate Seán Kyne).  It's technically possible that she could lose more votes in this recount than she would end up losing by after the 11th count, although realistically she wouldn't gain 56 votes on Kyne (to tie him if the current 10th count results stood) or 57 votes on him (to beat him) from a 129-vote Labour surplus, so having a full recount now means that any recount tomorrow (it looks like the count will adjorn for the day after this recount) likely won't have to be as extensive.

[Kevinstat]

Broderick's vote went mostly to Kitt, Connaughton and Cannon, all of which are now elected. Keaveney is ahead of McHugh by about 1200 votes, and there's about 1000 votes of FF surplus and 800 votes of FG surplus. I suppose they'll try to wrap that up tonight while the other counts all continue tomorrow.

Will the surpluses of the three elected candidates be done in separate counts (in descending order of the candidate's surplus)?  Kitt's surplus will probably clinch it for Keaveney.

[Kevinstat]

Broderick's vote went mostly to Kitt, Connaughton and Cannon, all of which are now elected. Keaveney is ahead of McHugh by about 1200 votes, and there's about 1000 votes of FF surplus and 800 votes of FG surplus. I suppose they'll try to wrap that up tonight while the other counts all continue tomorrow.

Will the surpluses of the three elected candidates be done in separate counts (in descending order of the candidate's surplus)?  Kitt's surplus will probably clinch it for Keaveney.

Galway West count now complete with Keaveney (Labour) being elected.  From the changes in the tallies it looks like only Kitt (FF)'s surplus votes was transferred, and Keaveney did grow his lead (not that he needed to as the FG surplus wouldn't have been enough for McHugh to catch up I don't think).

[Kevinstat]

The count's over in Wicklow.  3 FG, 1 Lab and 1 i (Connelly) elected.  Brady (SF) requested a recount of counts 14-19 after the final (19th) count, but withdrew it a minute later.

[Kevinstat]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

Ok, last update for today, with the 12 remaining seats.

FG : 74 to 76
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 18 to 20

Not just realistic worst/best case scenarios now, although either possible final partisan tally (counting independents and indeed all candidates outside FG, Lab, FF and SF as a party) now seems realistic.

FG : 75 to 76
Lab : 37
FF : 20
SF : 14
Oth : 19 to 20

[Kevinstat]

Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys.

It was a merger (in September 1933) of (in order of seats won at the previous election) Cumann na nGaedheal (the successor to pro-treaty Sinn Féin), the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts (tecnically the National Guard, formerly the Army Comrades Association, who don't seem to have been a political party in the strictest sense before "merging" with CnG and NCP to form Fine Gael).  The first Fine Gael leader was a Blueshirt, but he resigned as leader and left the party in September 1934.  He then formed the National Corporate Party, but according to Wikipedia most Blueshirts stayed in Fine Gael.

[Kevinstat]

It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.