Irish Election Results Thread

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Curious to see what the Mayo figures are - there's talk of FG getting four of five there.

Only two FF TDs officially out so far (plus Paul Gogarty with just 3.5%), but most of the rest seem pretty frank & serene about the whole thing and their chances; they've seen this one coming for a long time, so I suppose they've had a while to come to terms with it all.

One question for those more knowledgeable than I: it was about five or six hours before the first count was announced. As the ballot boxes have already been assembled, why does it take so long in comparison with a country like Britain, where some can can gather up the boxes and then count them inside of two or three hours?

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One question for those more knowledgeable than I: it was about five or six hours before the first count was announced. As the ballot boxes have already been assembled, why does it take so long in comparison with a country like Britain, where some can can gather up the boxes and then count them inside of two or three hours?

Practice varies by count centre, but usually the first count takes so long because ballots are not just counted, but counted and then sorted by second preference before the first count is declared.

I'd also say it's quite possibly the case that we have fewer people actually counting in the average count centre than in the UK.

Ah, of course - makes sense, I suppose, as the succeeding counts seem to be taking fairly little time. Thanks.

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The first Fianna Fail win so far (apart from the Speaker) - Brian Lenihan, who looks like the only one they'll have left in the capital. Gerry Adams has also just won.

Again, I'm reminded of 1997 in Britain (though this is on a bigger scale, of course) where the polls had been closed for about three hours before the first Tory win came in.

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Imagine what would have happened with FPTP. It would be like Canada 1993, even with transferable votes. Actually especially with them.

I think it would have been worse - the Tory result was mainly because of the Reform split, so if there had been an Irish or Australian-style system they would have done all right, and certainly better than Fianna Fail is doing today. This is just a pure meltdown - a more apt Canadian comparison would be the 1935 disintegration of the United Farmers in Alberta.

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Martin wins, with the best FF result so far - only a 16% drop, leaving them on 28%. Not much comfort for them, but given what's been happening it'll probably give them some comfort.

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Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

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Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

They didn't, though they did win 3/4 - to get 4/5 you need two-thirds of the vote, which is pretty damn difficult. The first count gives them 65%, so with transfers they should make it.

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Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

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Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.

I think that the seat outcome is going to be just as bad as was originally projected, but there will be more close misses than were expected. At the moment they're just two points behind Labour (this may change), but a lack of transfers will see them shafted. It does mean that they have a hope of gains next time as opposed to a continued fall, which is what I think might have happened if they had been at 15% as opposed to 18% or so and some narrow losses.

Also, FF seems to be holding up a bit better in the south west - perhaps it's Micheal Martin's coattails or something else, but they're dropping less than 20% in some constituencies there, as opposed to 25% or 30% elsewhere.

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A bit of a surprise - rather than widening, the Labour-Fianna Fail gap seems to be narrowing. It's 19% to 18% with only two constituencies left to go.

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Fianna Fail have just gotten their fourth member - also in Cork.

Bacik is out in Dun Laoghaire (though Labour says it wants a full recount), so while that should be enough to see Fine Gael win a second seat there, it'll be curious how much of her vote goes to Boyd Barrett. Just over half of Andrews' vote went to Mary Hanafin, so it doesn't look very good for her.

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Wicklow's first count finally announced - no official winner yet, but Dick Roche is certain to be out.

Final vote is as follows:
FG - 36.1% (+8.8%)
Lab - 19.4% (+9.3%)
FF - 17.4% (–24.2%)
SF - 9.9% (+3.0%)
GP - 1.8% (–2.9%)

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Eamon Ryan's out at Dublin South - that's the last Green seat gone.

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     Heh, FF didn't win first preferences anywhere, even though SF won them in Donegal South West.

Micheal Martin won on the first count, but otherwise you're right.

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Fifty-seven seats left and Sinn Fein still leads Fianna Fail 11-10. With obviously efficient anti-Fianna Fail transfers in most constituencies, I'm starting to think 20 seats may be in the upper range of possibilities for them.

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Mayo's final count is in - they did it.

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Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

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Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

I doubt they'll make it, but seeing how the transfers are so efficiently squeezing out Fianna Fail candidates it is possible.

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Only three constituencies left to declare tonight - chalk up three more Fine Gael members from Cavan – Monaghan.

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Dublin South-Central has finished, so no more declarations until tomorrow.

Current tally:
FG - 59
Lab - 31
FF - 14
SF - 13
ULA - 3
Ind - 11

Thirty-five more seats to come.

As for defeats, all six Greens are out, as well as Michael D'Arcy for Fine Gael and thirty Fianna Fail members.

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Here's how each party has done so far (shaded by number of seats, not vote share):

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I'm sure that (like Cameron & the Tories) Kenny & Fine Gael are rather glad they didn't get an outright majority - they may ally with independents, but a Labour coalition is more likely, which means that there'll be two parties to absorb voter anger in the coming years rather than just one.

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Here's a map showing the drop in Fianna Fail's vote:



Their biggest falls came in the Dublin area, particularly in the north. They dropped less in the inner areas, but of course they had fewer votes to lose there. The smallest decline was in Mayo, where they had only 24% in 2007.

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In the last couple of years, the famous three most long-dominant parties - Liberals in Canada, Social Democrats in Sweden, and now Fianna Fail - have all had historically bad elections: the Liberals got their lowest-ever vote (though not seat total), the Social Democrats their lowest post-WWI vote (after doing it in 2006 as well), and Fianna Fail is now in third place.

Here's a final map, again shaded by seat number:

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Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

I wouldn't call the Liberals conservative, but the pattern of changing policies to fit popularity is apt - each party (though not so much the SAP) has been in power so often and so long, that the electorate has gotten tired of them, with other parties to the left and right providing a more hard-edged message that elicits more excitement. The desertion of Quebec, which was the reason for the Liberal dominance in the twentieth century, is also a big factor in Canada (and does tie into my previous point).
As well, all of these parties, while frequently changing their images & policies, have not done so as much in recent years, while political climates have continued to change. Perhaps they have all lost some of their capacity to alter themselves, and are now finding themselves on the wrong side of public opinion.