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Author Topic: British Columbian Elections Thread  (Read 2465 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2011, 11:45:17 pm »
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According to the most recent results, with 145 of 134 boxes counted [sic] Clark has won by about 400 votes.
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« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2011, 11:49:57 pm »
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Vancouver-Point Grey   Danielle Alie   BC First   323   2.49%
    Christy Clark   BC Liberal Party   6,281   48.48%
David Eby   BC NDP   5,883   45.41%
William Gibbens   Independent   25   0.19%
Eddie Petrossian   Independent   9   0.07%
Francoise Raunet   Green Party of BC   435   3.36%
146 of 134 ballot boxes reported   12,956   100%

Ouch! That's embarrassingly close for the Liberals!
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trebor204
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« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2011, 11:51:46 pm »
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Latest Results

CBC: , Clark 6,503, Eby 6,129
Elections BC 6,392 (?)  Eby 5,933 (149 Polls out of Huh)

Earlier Post had Clark at 6932.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2011, 11:56:47 pm by trebor204 »Logged
Foucaulf
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« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2011, 11:54:33 pm »
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According to the most recent results, with 145 of 134 boxes counted [sic] Clark has won by about 400 votes.

Make that a 463-vote victory after poll 150 has been counted. Surprise! There's 167 polls in total.

Of course the NDP will find this disappointing, but I don't want to hear anything about the NDP "giving up the lead" they enjoyed at the height of the HST debacle. This, believe it or not, would be the textbook definition of a "moral victory". The by-election has received zero media coverage, and the NDP has received nothing but questionable looks after Dix was elected leader. There will be coverage for the NDP after this election, which means they can publicize themselves more as they wait for the HST debacle to end.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2011, 11:57:44 pm by Foucaulf »Logged

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« Reply #29 on: May 12, 2011, 04:33:52 am »
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Vancouver-Point Grey is a fairly swingy district - it was won by the NDP by an above-provincewide margin in 1991 and Gordon Campbell, who was the former Mayor of Vancouver, only ran a little above the provincewide Liberal margin in his runs.
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Hatman
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« Reply #30 on: May 12, 2011, 07:37:52 am »
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This is no safe Liberal seat, however it looks like it would be on a map. (it's entirely in the Vancouver Quadra federal riding).
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« Reply #31 on: May 12, 2011, 06:31:03 pm »
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This is no safe Liberal seat, however it looks like it would be on a map. (it's entirely in the Vancouver Quadra federal riding).

The gazillionaires in Point Grey are heavily BC Liberal, but the UBC campus and Kitsilano show a very large provincial NDP/federal Liberal swing, partially (but not entirely) for strategic reasons.
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« Reply #32 on: May 14, 2011, 10:01:48 pm »
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Vancouver-Point Grey has always had a slight BC Liberal tilt, but they never won by huge margins, unlike in neighbouring Vancouver-Quilchena.  As for the federal Liberal vote, it tends to split pretty evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP as the BC Liberals are more conservative than their federal counterparts.  The NDP does well due to the university, but also the high number of rentals in the riding.  Kitsilano is actually a mix as the BC Liberals tend to win big amongst the homes along the waterfront, but the NDP does well in between 4th Avenue to 12th Avenue, where you have a lot of apartments and rental homes.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2011, 02:52:20 am »
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My god, I really should have updated this thread in the past two months. Some developments:

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« Reply #34 on: July 18, 2011, 07:19:36 am »
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On your final point, Foucaulf, I was of the impression that BC had fixed election dates. As a local, you undoubtably have greater knowledge. Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

I have a map of BC Conservative votes at the last election, I'll upload it tomorrow for your perusal. I have a couple of other maps in the International Elections and Blank Maps galleries.
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« Reply #35 on: July 18, 2011, 08:17:22 am »
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On your final point, Foucaulf, I was of the impression that BC had fixed election dates. As a local, you undoubtably have greater knowledge. Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

I have a map of BC Conservative votes at the last election, I'll upload it tomorrow for your perusal. I have a couple of other maps in the International Elections and Blank Maps galleries.

There's one there already, actually:

There is a fixed date, but those can always be ignored...
« Last Edit: July 18, 2011, 08:19:02 am by Hatman »Logged

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Foucaulf
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« Reply #36 on: July 18, 2011, 03:37:36 pm »
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Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

The fixed date is only an upper bound on the length of an assembly, a legislative defence against one overstaying its due. Its only significance is that the date of the next election is set out in advance - second Tuesday in May four years from the last. The premier can at any time drive over to the lieutenant-governor and ask for dissolution.

I see that Australians actually have assemblies with a fixed term! That explains the bloodbath of Australia's state Labor parties somewhat.


Speaking of the BC Conservatives, I forgot to post this poll that shows them in the high teens again. The last time the party polled 18% was in December 2009, at the beginning of the HST debacle.
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I first thought it was Hashemite, who decided to off Harper for good.
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Smid
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« Reply #37 on: July 18, 2011, 06:18:18 pm »
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There's one there already, actually.

Sorry I'd missed it. No worries.

Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

The fixed date is only an upper bound on the length of an assembly, a legislative defence against one overstaying its due. Its only significance is that the date of the next election is set out in advance - second Tuesday in May four years from the last. The premier can at any time drive over to the lieutenant-governor and ask for dissolution.

I see that Australians actually have assemblies with a fixed term! That explains the bloodbath of Australia's state Labor parties somewhat.

Speaking of the BC Conservatives, I forgot to post this poll that shows them in the high teens again. The last time the party polled 18% was in December 2009, at the beginning of the HST debacle.

I gotcha - it's a maximum term limit (not the US Presidential use of the phrase, obviously). Some Australian states have a completely fixed term (as you note) while others do not - they have the same sort of thing as BC evidently uses. Federally we also have the same, based on time elapsed since the first sitting of Parliament. Queensland and Federal are three-year terms, all other states and I think territories are four year terms - some fixed, some with a maximum end date only. Victoria and New South Wales both have fixed terms with an election date set in stone (although that said, Victoria has a loophole allowing an earlier election, but it's rather complex and involves blocked legislation and the "Disputes Resolution Committee" and various other requirements, and is similar in concept to a federal Double Dissolution - although given the entire Victorian Upper House is elected at each election, the reduced quota that occurs under a Double Dissolution is not a by-product). The other states and territories... I don't know... Western Australia had an early election last time (triggered by a change in the Opposition Leader and thus the Premier thinking he had an opportunity to catch the opposition off guard... except people saw it as being opportunistic and consequently a fairly strong swing was picked up in the polls in the first couple of weeks of the election campaign and the government changed hands in a very close election) - anyway, WA had an early election last time, so it must have had an "end date" rather than a fixed date back then, but there may have been changes to the Electoral Act since then. Interestingly - our electoral methods are set in an Act of Parliament, rather than in the Constitution, so do not require a referendum to change (I bring this up due to the referendum held in BC on voting method - or, of course, the AV Referendum in the UK - for us to change our voting method, it would only require the passage of a bill amending the Electoral Act through the Parliament - as was the case in Victoria after Labor's historic win in 2002, where the Upper House was reformed substantially... although this thread is not the place to discuss that).
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #38 on: July 18, 2011, 06:53:35 pm »
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The limit used to be 5 years. This resulted in Premiers (or PMs) calling elections between 3.5 and 4.5 years into their term, based on when the polls were the best. The idea is that by limiting the sitting to 4 years, that Premiers would not call it at 3.5 because it would be clear they are taking advantage of the polls.

Any government, with "fixed" terms, that has lasted for 3 years has indeed filled out their term, but there are examples of a government with 2 years (2.5 IIRC) going, and of governments with 2 talking about going.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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