British Columbian Elections Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to the most recent results, with 145 of 134 boxes counted [sic] Clark has won by about 400 votes.

[2952-0-0]

Vancouver-Point Grey   Danielle Alie   BC First   323   2.49%
    Christy Clark   BC Liberal Party   6,281   48.48%
David Eby   BC NDP   5,883   45.41%
William Gibbens   Independent   25   0.19%
Eddie Petrossian   Independent   9   0.07%
Francoise Raunet   Green Party of BC   435   3.36%
146 of 134 ballot boxes reported   12,956   100%

Ouch! That's embarrassingly close for the Liberals!

[trebor204]

Latest Results

CBC: , Clark 6,503, Eby 6,129
Elections BC 6,392 (?)  Eby 5,933 (149 Polls out of )

Earlier Post had Clark at 6932.

[Foucaulf]

According to the most recent results, with 145 of 134 boxes counted [sic] Clark has won by about 400 votes.

Make that a 463-vote victory after poll 150 has been counted. Surprise! There's 167 polls in total.

Of course the NDP will find this disappointing, but I don't want to hear anything about the NDP "giving up the lead" they enjoyed at the height of the HST debacle. This, believe it or not, would be the textbook definition of a "moral victory". The by-election has received zero media coverage, and the NDP has received nothing but questionable looks after Dix was elected leader. There will be coverage for the NDP after this election, which means they can publicize themselves more as they wait for the HST debacle to end.

[Nichlemn]

Vancouver-Point Grey is a fairly swingy district - it was won by the NDP by an above-provincewide margin in 1991 and Gordon Campbell, who was the former Mayor of Vancouver, only ran a little above the provincewide Liberal margin in his runs.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is no safe Liberal seat, however it looks like it would be on a map. (it's entirely in the Vancouver Quadra federal riding).

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is no safe Liberal seat, however it looks like it would be on a map. (it's entirely in the Vancouver Quadra federal riding).

The gazillionaires in Point Grey are heavily BC Liberal, but the UBC campus and Kitsilano show a very large provincial NDP/federal Liberal swing, partially (but not entirely) for strategic reasons.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver-Point Grey has always had a slight BC Liberal tilt, but they never won by huge margins, unlike in neighbouring Vancouver-Quilchena.  As for the federal Liberal vote, it tends to split pretty evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP as the BC Liberals are more conservative than their federal counterparts.  The NDP does well due to the university, but also the high number of rentals in the riding.  Kitsilano is actually a mix as the BC Liberals tend to win big amongst the homes along the waterfront, but the NDP does well in between 4th Avenue to 12th Avenue, where you have a lot of apartments and rental homes.

[Foucaulf]

My god, I really should have updated this thread in the past two months. Some developments:

• Vancouver burns during riots after Canucks lose the Stanley Cup
  But you should know that. What is curious about the riots is that it produced no obvious political backlash - everyone seemed united in denouncing the "hooliganism" of the night. Contrast this with the "Jets bounce" of Manitoba's NDP government after Winnipeg reclaimed a National Hockey League franchise.
• The provincial government has retaken the offensive on the Harmonized Sales Tax as the referendum goes underway. A major policy change is a promise to decrease the HST from 12% to 10% by 2014, as well as more tax credits/refunds. Politically, there have been issues raised over if one should vote yes or no to abolish the tax, sign vandalism and biased commercials starring stick figures.
  The only poll done so far on the referendum shows 56-44 support for abolishment, but that was a month ago. All ballots are to be returned by August 5, a two-week extension.
• A story ignored beneath the HST: the BC Teachers' Union has voted to approve "teach-only" action as their contract with the government expires later this year. These negotiations are in light of cuts in school boards across the province, and another decrease in education funding should the HST be abolished.
• Rumours of premier Clark aiming for a fall election remain in the air. That is of course predicate on two things: the result of the HST referendum and whether the BC Conservatives actually publicise themselves and steal ex-Liberal voters. The latter is of much less importance.

[Smid]

On your final point, Foucaulf, I was of the impression that BC had fixed election dates. As a local, you undoubtably have greater knowledge. Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

I have a map of BC Conservative votes at the last election, I'll upload it tomorrow for your perusal. I have a couple of other maps in the International Elections and Blank Maps galleries.

[Hatman 🍁]

On your final point, Foucaulf, I was of the impression that BC had fixed election dates. As a local, you undoubtably have greater knowledge. Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

I have a map of BC Conservative votes at the last election, I'll upload it tomorrow for your perusal. I have a couple of other maps in the International Elections and Blank Maps galleries.

There's one there already, actually:

There is a fixed date, but those can always be ignored...

[Foucaulf]

Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

The fixed date is only an upper bound on the length of an assembly, a legislative defence against one overstaying its due. Its only significance is that the date of the next election is set out in advance - second Tuesday in May four years from the last. The premier can at any time drive over to the lieutenant-governor and ask for dissolution.

I see that Australians actually have assemblies with a fixed term! That explains the bloodbath of Australia's state Labor parties somewhat.


Speaking of the BC Conservatives, I forgot to post this poll that shows them in the high teens again. The last time the party polled 18% was in December 2009, at the beginning of the HST debacle.

[Smid]

There's one there already, actually.

Sorry I'd missed it. No worries.

Am I mistaken, or is there a way for the Premier to get around a fixed date?

The fixed date is only an upper bound on the length of an assembly, a legislative defence against one overstaying its due. Its only significance is that the date of the next election is set out in advance - second Tuesday in May four years from the last. The premier can at any time drive over to the lieutenant-governor and ask for dissolution.

I see that Australians actually have assemblies with a fixed term! That explains the bloodbath of Australia's state Labor parties somewhat.

Speaking of the BC Conservatives, I forgot to post this poll that shows them in the high teens again. The last time the party polled 18% was in December 2009, at the beginning of the HST debacle.

I gotcha - it's a maximum term limit (not the US Presidential use of the phrase, obviously). Some Australian states have a completely fixed term (as you note) while others do not - they have the same sort of thing as BC evidently uses. Federally we also have the same, based on time elapsed since the first sitting of Parliament. Queensland and Federal are three-year terms, all other states and I think territories are four year terms - some fixed, some with a maximum end date only. Victoria and New South Wales both have fixed terms with an election date set in stone (although that said, Victoria has a loophole allowing an earlier election, but it's rather complex and involves blocked legislation and the "Disputes Resolution Committee" and various other requirements, and is similar in concept to a federal Double Dissolution - although given the entire Victorian Upper House is elected at each election, the reduced quota that occurs under a Double Dissolution is not a by-product). The other states and territories... I don't know... Western Australia had an early election last time (triggered by a change in the Opposition Leader and thus the Premier thinking he had an opportunity to catch the opposition off guard... except people saw it as being opportunistic and consequently a fairly strong swing was picked up in the polls in the first couple of weeks of the election campaign and the government changed hands in a very close election) - anyway, WA had an early election last time, so it must have had an "end date" rather than a fixed date back then, but there may have been changes to the Electoral Act since then. Interestingly - our electoral methods are set in an Act of Parliament, rather than in the Constitution, so do not require a referendum to change (I bring this up due to the referendum held in BC on voting method - or, of course, the AV Referendum in the UK - for us to change our voting method, it would only require the passage of a bill amending the Electoral Act through the Parliament - as was the case in Victoria after Labor's historic win in 2002, where the Upper House was reformed substantially... although this thread is not the place to discuss that).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The limit used to be 5 years. This resulted in Premiers (or PMs) calling elections between 3.5 and 4.5 years into their term, based on when the polls were the best. The idea is that by limiting the sitting to 4 years, that Premiers would not call it at 3.5 because it would be clear they are taking advantage of the polls.

Any government, with "fixed" terms, that has lasted for 3 years has indeed filled out their term, but there are examples of a government with 2 years (2.5 IIRC) going, and of governments with 2 talking about going.