All right, let's assume the following scenario.
U.S. invasion on Iraq in 2003 never happens, and Saddam is enjoying a power as of now. Even more, due to Bush finding some other source of obsession, he's actually improving his relations with the West, similarly to Uncle Muammar.
I'm pretty sure Iraq wouldn't avoid 2010/2012 revolutionary wave. I guess events would be similar to current ones in Libya. Very bloody.