MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney 46% Obama 41%

[NE Assembyman electoraljew2]

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Feb2011_Media_Freq.pdf

[I left.]

Michigan is such a tease.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Wow, wasn't expecting this.

[Mehmentum]

Odd, since the poll has Obama at a 50% favorable.  (The approval ratings are hard to compare since it uses Exellent/Good/Fair/Poor).

Although if the poll is right, it would make the election interesting, Romeny would loose NC, but win MI, lol.

[mondale84]

Not buying it...

It's too early to be using likely voter models....

[NE Assembyman electoraljew2]

Its possible, PPP had Romney within 5 in December.

[Invisible Obama]

I don't believe this one either, Romney leading when he has a lower approval than the President doesn't add up. Michigan won't flip unless there's a landslide.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't believe this one either, Romney leading when he has a lower approval than the President doesn't add up. Michigan won't flip unless there's a landslide.

Favorability, not approval.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

I could see Romney beating Obama in Michigan.

[Secretary Polnut]

Not buying this - going completely against the prevailing wisdom.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

I could see Romney beating Obama in Michigan.

     As can I, but for him to be doing so while losing North Carolina & Virginia seems genuinely bizarre.

[Ben Romney]

WOW!
I expected Romney to lead in MI but not that big

[Emperor]

Obama vs. Romney




Romney beating Obama in Michigan, but lose Ohio and North Carolina ?? Yes, sure..

[oakvale]

Can someone explain to me what a "Likely Voter" is at this point?

[Invisible Obama]

Favorability, not approval.

Regardless, it still doesn't add up. Seems like the gap between favorability numbers is to much for Romney to have a lead.

[Former Moderate]

This feels weird, but I could definitely see it happening.

[feeblepizza]

This was a BIG surprise. But, Michigan is a tease. McCain made Michigan close for the first of weeks out of the Dem Convention, and he lost by about 16 points.

[Senator Sbane]

The best thing to glean from this poll is that Romney is pretty popular in Michigan and will likely bring the state close to being a tipping point state.

[Gravis Marketing]

Skeptical doesn't begin to describe my reaction to this poll.

[Verily]

Skeptical doesn't begin to describe my reaction to this poll.

EPIC/MRA is not the most reliable pollster ever, certainly. Still, I could see Romney winning Michigan by a point or two while losing nationally--at least, it wouldn't be totally unrealistic.

[Mehmentum]

Skeptical doesn't begin to describe my reaction to this poll.

EPIC/MRA is not the most reliable pollster ever, certainly. Still, I could see Romney winning Michigan by a point or two while losing nationally--at least, it wouldn't be totally unrealistic.

Yes it wouldn't be that unrealistic in a close election.  However, unless North Carolina has shifted dramatically to the left and/ or Michigan dramatically to the right, I don't see Romney winning MI and loosing NC.

If ppp has Romney doing well in Wisconsin in their next poll, this one will carry more weight.

[MilesC56]

Can someone explain to me what a "Likely Voter" is at this point?

Ask Scott Rasmussen. Thats how he's justifying his biased numbers from Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

The best thing to glean from this poll is that Romney is pretty popular in Michigan and will likely bring the state close to being a tipping point state.

The Romney name remains popular in Michigan due to a Governor from the 1960s -- before the state became an economic disaster. Mitt Romney could make Michigan a single-digit win for President Obama. But that said, Michigan has an unusually-high number of African-Americans for a Northern state, only Maryland and perhaps Virginia (if you now consider Virginia a Northern state) having higher proportions of black people.   

[Likely Voter]

maybe if they are using 2010 turnout/demographics for the LV model, but otherwise dont buy it. I really wish people who release LV numbers also revealed their RV number so we can see the voodoo that they do.

If there is any state that Obama can claim to have done good work in, it would be MI. It had 15% unemployment on inauguration day and it has since dropped to 10.5%. Still ahead of national avg, but I think it is the biggest drop of any state. Obama pushed for the car company bailout, which now looks like it worked.

I dunno, maybe Romney has some big resevoir of support due to his ties to the state, but I doubt this poll