British pollsters
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 28, 2004, 12:45:18 PM »
Which British polls do you take seriously?

I'm an ICM man myself. They get pretty (as in 1%) close.

Here's a poll I have some reservations on:

Independent on Sunday/ Communication Research 24 Nov 04 - 25 Nov 04
1033 sampled
Con 31
Lab 42 (!)
Lib Dem 20

That's very similar to the 2001 result.


Vorlon, any opinions on UK polls?
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2004, 01:26:13 PM »

I've been imploring Vorlon to comment on UK polls for ages! But to no avail sadly.. hopfully he'll pay attention to this Smiley

ICM

YouGov

CS

Populus

Mori

...of all of these I'd go with ICM and of late YouGov have improved but imput from Vorlon would be very welcome.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2004, 01:31:27 PM »
I think the expression: "hot dog poll" is accurate as far as most U.K pollsters go...
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English
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2004, 09:54:47 AM »
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2004, 09:58:59 AM »
Quote from: English on December 02, 2004, 09:54:47 AM
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

Looks about right
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2004, 05:30:26 PM »
Quote from: English on December 02, 2004, 09:54:47 AM
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

I think the Conservatives will do better than that, but Labour seems about right.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2004, 03:52:27 AM »
There are two main ways of polling here:
1. Weight by age, religion, region etc.
2. Ask how they voted last time. If 85% of Labour voters say they'll vote Labour next time, give Labour 85% of their 2001 figure.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2004, 12:06:14 AM »
How long is it until the deadline for the next election (yes, I know that they are not fixed).
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2004, 05:49:35 AM »
It's got to be held by 7 June 2006.
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