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Author Topic: British pollsters  (Read 1854 times)
Silent Hunter
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« on: November 28, 2004, 12:45:18 pm »
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Which British polls do you take seriously?

I'm an ICM man myself. They get pretty (as in 1%) close.

Here's a poll I have some reservations on:

Independent on Sunday/ Communication Research 24 Nov 04 - 25 Nov 04
1033 sampled
Con 31
Lab 42 (!)
Lib Dem 20

That's very similar to the 2001 result.


Vorlon, any opinions on UK polls?

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Ben.
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2004, 01:26:13 pm »
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Vorlon, any opinions on UK polls?


I've been imploring Vorlon to comment on UK polls for ages! But to no avail sadly.. hopfully he'll pay attention to this Smiley

ICM

YouGov

CS

Populus

Mori

...of all of these I'd go with ICM and of late YouGov have improved but imput from Vorlon would be very welcome.
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.Britainís Mayor.
Sibboleth
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2004, 01:31:27 pm »
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I think the expression: "hot dog poll" is accurate as far as most U.K pollsters go...
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"It is the essence of a true democracy that people should be respected individually, not simply collectively. It is also of the essence of a democracy that differences and distinctions are recognised and, where relevant, honoured. A democracy should be above all a thoughtful type of society, in these and other respects."

Richard Hoggart
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2004, 09:54:47 am »
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My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)
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I live in the UK and regard myself as a socially liberal, economic centrist. I vote for the British Labour party and support the Canadian NDP and US Democratic parties.


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Sibboleth
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2004, 09:58:59 am »
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My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

Looks about right
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"It is the essence of a true democracy that people should be respected individually, not simply collectively. It is also of the essence of a democracy that differences and distinctions are recognised and, where relevant, honoured. A democracy should be above all a thoughtful type of society, in these and other respects."

Richard Hoggart
Ben.
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2004, 05:30:26 pm »
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My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

I think the Conservatives will do better than that, but Labour seems about right.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2004, 03:52:27 am »
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There are two main ways of polling here:
1. Weight by age, religion, region etc.
2. Ask how they voted last time. If 85% of Labour voters say they'll vote Labour next time, give Labour 85% of their 2001 figure.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2004, 12:06:14 am »
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How long is it until the deadline for the next election (yes, I know that they are not fixed).
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2004, 05:49:35 am »
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It's got to be held by 7 June 2006.
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