RBH
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,211
|
 |
« on: September 05, 2011, 04:52:44 PM » |
|
an attempt at Tennessee State Senate redistricting
SD1 (Southerland-R): 71/29 McCain, 64/36 Rep (71/29 McCain, 64/36 Rep)
SD2 (Ramsey-R): 71.5/28.5 McCain, 65/35 Rep (71/29 McCain, 65/35 Rep)
SD3 (Crowe-R): 70/30 McCain, 64/36 Rep (71/29 McCain, 65/35 Rep)
SD4 (Faulk-R): 71/29 McCain, 62/38 Rep (71/29 McCain, 63/37 Rep)
SD5 (McNally-R): 67/33 McCain, 57/43 Rep (69/31 McCain, 61/39 Rep)
SD6 (winner of Special Election-R): 62/38 McCain, 55/45 Rep (65/35 McCain, 58/42 Rep)
SD7 (Campfield-R): 59/41 McCain, 55/45 Rep (56/44 McCain, 52/48 Rep)
SD8 (Overbey-R): 72/28 McCain, 65/35 Rep (72/28 McCain, 65/35 Rep)
SD9 (Bell-R): 73/27 McCain, 65/35 Rep (72.5/27.5 McCain, 65/35 Rep)
SD10 (Berke-D): 57/43 McCain, 50.1/49.9 Rep (50.3/49.7 McCain, 56/44 Dem)
SD11 (Watson-R): 70/30 McCain, 62/38 Rep (73/27 McCain, 65/35 Rep)
SD12 (Yager-R): 70/30 McCain, 62/38 Rep (71/29 McCain, 60/40 Rep)
SD13 (Ketron-R): 64/36 McCain, 60/40 Rep (64/36 McCain, 57/43 Rep)
SD14 (Stewart-D): 65/35 McCain, 55/45 Rep (63/37 McCain, 53/47 Rep)
SD15 (Burks-D): 65/35 McCain, 56/44 Rep (65/35 McCain, 55.5/45.5 Rep)
SD16 (Tracy-R): 59.5/40.5 McCain, 54/46 Rep (59/41 McCain, 54.5/45.5 Rep)
SD17 (Beavers-R): 66/34 McCain, 58/42 Rep (66.5/33.5 McCain, 58/42 Rep)
SD18 (open): 68/32 McCain, 61/39 Rep (67/33 McCain, 60/40 Rep)
SD19 (Harper-D): 81/19 Obama, 79/21 Dem (86/14 Obama, 83/17 Dem)
SD20 (open): 62/38 Obama, 62/38 Dem (55/45 Obama, 56/44 Dem)
SD21 (Henry-D): 55/45 McCain, 52/48 Rep (55/45 Obama, 56.5/43.5 Dem)
SD22 (Barnes-D and Roberts-R): 61/39 McCain, 54/46 Rep (56/44 McCain, 52/48 Rep)
SD23 (Johnson-R): 64.5/35.5 McCain, 62/38 Rep (66/34 McCain, 63/37 Rep)
SD24 (Herron-D): 62/38 McCain, 52/48 Rep (63.5/36.5 McCain, 53/47 Rep)
SD25 (Summerville-R): 58/42 McCain, 51/49 Rep (61/39 McCain, 52/48 Rep)
SD26 (Gresham-R): 60/40 McCain, 53/47 Rep (62.5/37.5 McCain, 55/45 Rep)
SD27 (Finney-D): 59/41 McCain, 52/48 Rep (58/42 McCain, 51/49 Rep)
SD28 (Kyle-D): 79/21 Obama, 73/27 Dem (71.5/28.5 Obama, 67/33 Dem)
SD29 (Ford-D): 76/24 Obama, 70/30 Dem (78/22 Obama, 72/28 Dem)
SD30 (open): 65/35 McCain, 56/44 Rep
SD31 (Kelsey-R): 54/46 McCain, 56/44 Rep (53/47 McCain, 57.5/42.5 Rep)
SD32 (Norris-R): 65/35 McCain, 64/36 Rep (69/31 McCain, 63/37 Rep)
SD33 (Tate-D): 81/19 Obama, 75/25 Dem (80/20 Obama, 74/26 Dem)
The 30th moves out of Memphis (where it was a 66/34 Obama/63D/37R district).
High AfAm-percentage districts
SD10: 19.5% (was 31.4%)
SD11: 16.1% (was 7%)
SD19: 53.1% (was 56.2%)
SD20: 21.9% (was 23.1%)
SD26: 28.4% (was 20.6%)
SD27: 23.4% (was 27%)
SD28: 65.1% (was 58.1%)
SD29: 62.7% (was 70.2%)
SD31: 32% (was 32.7%)
SD32: 21.1% (was 18.5%)
SD33: 73.9% (was 72.7%)
and the former SD30 was 47.5% African-American
Predicted effects. Even districts up in 2012/Odd districts up in 2014
2012:
Berke loses or comes close in the closest election in the district since 1984.
Stewart loses or comes close. Stewart won by 6.95% in 2008.
The Republicans keep the open 18th and the Democrats keep the open 20th.
Joe Haynes goes into retirement.
Roberts defeats Barnes.
Herron could hold the 24th.
Gresham could get a solid challenge. Kyle could get a solid primary challenge.
Republicans pickup the open 30th.
The Senate goes from 20-13 Republican to 22-11 Republican at worst. Maybe even 24-9 Republican or 25-8 if Herron retires or gets a solid challenge.
2014:
If Burks retires, her seat goes Republican. Henry would probably retire and his seat goes Republican. Summerville and Finney should get solid challenges. The partisan composition would be a range from 21-12 Republican to 28-5 Republican with the 5 Democrats being Ford, Tate, Kyle, the 20th district incumbent, and Harper.
And a look at Maury county since the border between the 30th and 13th may not be clear
So i'm sure this violates the Tennessee Constitution
|
