Obama vs. Christie 2012 Scenario

[NHI]

For the sake of argument let's say the GOP field is weak and Chris Christie decides to run for the nomination and wins. He selects Paul Ryan as his running mate and goes head to head with Pres. Obama in the fall. Unemployment is at 8.4% with the economy is improving; albeit slowly.

My projection for this scenario is below, but you're welcome to offer your own speculation on this rather unlikely matching.

7:00
The polls have closed in the state of: Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Vermont. At this hour we are able to project the states of Kentucky and South Carolina for Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and the democratic stronghold of Vermont to the President.

R: 17
D: 3

7:30
A few more states: Ohio and West Virginia can be added to the closed list, but still no projection with them yet.

7:45:
We have breaking now at this hour, we are now able to project that Gov. Christie will carry the state of Indiana. Pre. Obama carried it by a narrow margin last time, but tonight it returns into the Republican column.

R: 28
D: 3

To be continued...

[NHI]

Part II:

8:00
We're back at the top of the hour with more projections to make. We can project the state of: Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, DC, and Illinois to the President.

For Gov. Christie we are able to project: Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, and now West Virginia.

Christie leads the President with 76 electoral votes to 61.

We are unable to project winners in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire.

8:35
We just called Arkansas for Christie, but now have a projection to make for the President. The State of New Hampshire will go for Barack Obama.

Christie stills hold a lead over the President in both the electoral college and in the popular vote, but it is waning.

9:00
Many more states' polls have closed we are able to make projection in: Louisiana, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, Wyoming and Arizona all going solidly for Christie.

With Rhode Island, New York Michigan and Minnesota going solidly for Pres. Obama.


R: 148
D: 124

9:10
Back to the South where we can finally project a winner in the states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both are going for Chris Christie; North Carolina broke for Obama last time, but now it is returning into the Republican column tonight; just as Indiana.

With Christie's lead growing, Pres. Obama's only hope for reelection is to carry the states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. He carried them all last time, but in all states except for Virginia, the President is trailing Christie.

9:15
Another projection to make, this time in the Garden State.. Chris Christie's home state is switching out of the Democrat's column for the first time since 1988.

9:30
We have a big projection to make at this hour and it is for the Keystone State. Gov. Christie will carry the state, being the first Republican to carry it since George H.W. Bush back in 1988.

R: 224
D: 124

Now the night is still young, but we are hearing grumblings from within the Obama campaign regarding this stunning upset in Pennsylvania and its implications for the rest of the night.

10:00
We are now projecting the state of Iowa for the President, and the states of Utah and Montana for Chris Christie.

10:05
We are now finally able to make a projection in the state of Colorado and it will be carried by The President.

R: 233
D: 139

10:28
We're just about to go to break, but we have a projection to make for the state of Wisconsin: Chris Christie will be flipping his running mate's home state into the Republican column, and he will be the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to carry the state.

10:34
We're back and with another projection. The state of New Mexico will once more be carried by Barack Obama.

R: 243
D: 144

While the tide is certainly turning for Christie, Pres. Obama can still win the Presidency by carrying at least: Ohio and Florida which are still undecided.

11:00
California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii are all going for Pres. Obama, with Idaho breaking for Chris Christie at this hour.

R: 247
D: 222

11:18
At this time we have a major projection to make, with a majority of the votes in we are able to project the state of Ohio for Gov. Christie.

11:45
We have another major projection to make and it is for the state of Florida. We are projecting the state of Florida for Gov. Christie and thus The Presidency.

R: 294
D: 222

12:10
Pres. Obama gives his concession speech in Grant Park to an tearful crowd. He proudly proclaims: "We fought, we dreamed, we realized, and now we must pass it on; for that is the progression of change in America. It is a torch that is passed from one person to the next, each one hoping to carry the flame to a better and brighter tomorrow. "

http://viewfromhere.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5500010e88833010535d4d91f970b-800wi


12:40
Gov. Chris Christie addressed his throng of supporters in Mendham, NJ. "Because of you," he said. "I will have the great honor and privilege to go to Washington, DC and serve this country with the full intention of getting it back on track."

http://images.rcp.realclearpolitics.com/12609_4_.jpg


1:19
Nevada goes for Pres. Obama.
D: 50.1%
R: 48.6%

2:00
The final state Virginia goes for Pres-Elect Chris Christie by a narrow margin.
R: 49.44%
D: 49.01%

Final Result:

R: 310: 50.83%
D: 228: 47.61%
http://media.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/photo/chris-christie-oath-of-office-governorjpg-411452ba560dea01_large.jpg

[Vote UKIP!]

Even though I would find it find hard to support Christie in the primary, I think the governor would have an excellent chance of beating Obama in 2012. I believe that the governor is correct in assuming he would be able to win the Presidency if he runs.

Good timeline.

[NHI]

Thanks.

[Elyski]

Great timeline, exactlty how I think the election would be like with those two candidates, too bad Christie would be ripped to shreds by Romney and Palin (she is obviously running) in the primaries.

[Suburbia]

Christie would have been defeated, but by 2-4 points.

[Person Man]

Christie would have been defeated, but by 2-4 points.

OTL was at the high end of that range.

[Suburbia]

Christie would have picked an established veteran of GOP politics as his running mate.

[MATTROSE94]

It's kind of ironic that Chris Christie might possibly be indicted pretty soon, as US Attorney Paul Fishman is rumored to have finished the Bridgegate investigation and may announce who will be indicted regarding the scandal this Monday.

[Sir Mohamed]

Obama would have won the same states including North Carolina- winning the election 347-191

[Mister Mets]

Christie would have picked an established veteran of GOP politics as his running mate.

Paul Ryan had been in Congress for 14 years, and was essentially the GOP's intellectual leader on financial issues. He would have made the shortlist.