most suprising county to switch?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

even though it was by only 26 votes, I was pretty shocked to see Kerry take Kittson county. That's the one in the far northwest corner of Minnesota. In 2000 Bush won it by almost 10%, with Buchanan taking more than Nader for some reason, and even though it's a traditionally Democratic county that voted for Mondale, Moe and all other DFL candidates in 2002, I definately wasn't expecting it to swing. Most of northwest Minnesota didn't swing by much either.

[Alcon]

I'd have to say Mono County, California. Teton County, Wyoming went for Bush hugely in 2000, but in 1996 went for Clinton, so it was a bit less surprising.

[??????????]

Pinellas county, FL. If you know the demographics of the county it would confound you as to why it went for Bush.

[Beet]

Greene county, PA (the southwest corner co).

Gore won it by nearly 10% in 2000 and it has gone Democrat in every election except two (1928 and 1972) since 1892, which is the farthest back Leip's data is available. Dukakis also carried it by 30% in 1988, Mondale won it by nearly 20%.

[minionofmidas]

I think the one that surprised me most was the city of Danville.
I don't think the swing was really *that* large (I'd have to check though), but the city has been Republican at every election since the fifties, and I didn't think the Dem vote gains in Va. would be in the Centre South of the state.
If previous trends had continued, the North and Southeast of the state would have swung Dem, the Centre, South and Southwest Rep. As it turned out the North swung Dem, the Southeast and Soutnwest Rep, and the Centre and South are a mixed bag with local swings, some of them quite large, in both directions.

[WalterMitty]

I think the one that surprised me most was the city of Danville.
I don't think the swing was really *that* large (I'd have to check though), but the city has been Republican at every election since the fifties, and I didn't think the Dem vote gains in Va. would be in the Centre South of the state.
If previous trends had continued, the North and Southeast of the state would have swung Dem, the Centre, South and Southwest Rep. As it turned out the North swung Dem, the Southeast and Soutnwest Rep, and the Centre and South are a mixed bag with local swings, some of them quite large, in both directions.

it's no surprise to me, lewis.  danville is heavily minority.  most of the city seems relatively poor too.  im sure whites have been fleeing the city and into pittsylvania  county for many years.

[danwxman]

Greene county, PA (the southwest corner co).

Gore won it by nearly 10% in 2000 and it has gone Democrat in every election except two (1928 and 1972) since 1892, which is the farthest back Leip's data is available. Dukakis also carried it by 30% in 1988, Mondale won it by nearly 20%.

This county has just about everything in common with West Virginia. It's also the poorest county in the state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Greene county, PA (the southwest corner co).

Gore won it by nearly 10% in 2000 and it has gone Democrat in every election except two (1928 and 1972) since 1892, which is the farthest back Leip's data is available. Dukakis also carried it by 30% in 1988, Mondale won it by nearly 20%.

Greene is (IIRC) mostly Catholic... it's a poor rural county and it says a lot about where the Kerry campaign went wrong that he lost it (even if it was by a handful of votes).
Eastern Greene is old mining territory and is heavily Democratic... either turnout was bad their or a lot of voters protest voted on abortion etc.

[minionofmidas]

I think the one that surprised me most was the city of Danville.
I don't think the swing was really *that* large (I'd have to check though), but the city has been Republican at every election since the fifties, and I didn't think the Dem vote gains in Va. would be in the Centre South of the state.
If previous trends had continued, the North and Southeast of the state would have swung Dem, the Centre, South and Southwest Rep. As it turned out the North swung Dem, the Southeast and Soutnwest Rep, and the Centre and South are a mixed bag with local swings, some of them quite large, in both directions.

it's no surprise to me, lewis.  danville is heavily minority.  most of the city seems relatively poor too.  im sure whites have been fleeing the city and into pittsylvania  county for many years.

Just checked some background data on Danville...gotta love Danville on account of the "Danville Girl", btw...only an Appalachian could've portrayed Danville as the epitome of urban sophistication...

Danville:
1990 53K inhabitants, 62% White, 37% Black
2000 48K inhabitants, 53% White, 45% Black
2003 estimate: 47K inhabitants

Pittsylvania:
1990: 56K inhabitants, 73% White, 27% Black
2000: 62K inhabitants, 74% White, 24% Black
2003 estimate: 62K inhabitants

Election results (R-D):
Danville:
1988 62-37
1992 49-41
1996 50-44
2000 52-45
2004 49-49

Pittsylvania:
1988 64-34
1992 52-35
1996 56-35
2000 65-32
2004 65-34

My new most surprising county...Rockland NY.

[zachman]

My Grandmother lives in Rockland County NY!

From what I know about counties, Coos County NH (the far North) voted for Kerry this time. I'd also say Dick Cheney's home county in Wyoming was a big surprise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coos County is traditionally Democratic (for NH anyways) And has cool mountains :-)

[bushforever]

Monmouth County, NJ going Bush.  This is usually pretty democratic turf.  I think the 9/11 factor had a lot to do with it switching.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Monmouth County, NJ going Bush.  This is usually pretty democratic turf.  I think the 9/11 factor had a lot to do with it switching.

Um... since 1904 it's only gone Democratic 4 times: 1912, 1964, 1996, 2000

[bushforever]

Monmouth County, NJ going Bush.  This is usually pretty democratic turf.  I think the 9/11 factor had a lot to do with it switching.

Um... since 1904 it's only gone Democratic 4 times: 1912, 1964, 1996, 2000

Well, it still surprised me.  Gore carried the county by more than 5 % points in a state where pretty much every county went democrat in 2000 except for the rural ones on the Northwestern fringe.

[Hitchabrut]

Thanks for mentioning that, General Secretary Al. We (the GOP) have dominated Monmouth county politics for decades, and Bush gaining Monmouth county shouldn't be a surprised at all.

[Beet]

Greene county, PA (the southwest corner co).

Gore won it by nearly 10% in 2000 and it has gone Democrat in every election except two (1928 and 1972) since 1892, which is the farthest back Leip's data is available. Dukakis also carried it by 30% in 1988, Mondale won it by nearly 20%.

Greene is (IIRC) mostly Catholic... it's a poor rural county and it says a lot about where the Kerry campaign went wrong that he lost it (even if it was by a handful of votes).
Eastern Greene is old mining territory and is heavily Democratic... either turnout was bad their or a lot of voters protest voted on abortion etc.

The Pittsburgh area has been trending Republican for years now. It used to be one of the staunchest Democratic areas. If the data is any indication, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington counties will also go GOP within the next 10 years, leaving only Allegheny and Erie counties as the only Democratic counties outside Eastern PA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Pittsburgh area has been trending Republican for years now. It used to be one of the staunchest Democratic areas. If the data is any indication, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington counties will also go GOP within the next 10 years, leaving only Allegheny and Erie counties as the only Democratic counties outside Eastern PA.

At state and local level it still is... at Presidential level abortion has seriously hurt Democratic candidates recently.

[Beet]

The Pittsburgh area has been trending Republican for years now. It used to be one of the staunchest Democratic areas. If the data is any indication, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington counties will also go GOP within the next 10 years, leaving only Allegheny and Erie counties as the only Democratic counties outside Eastern PA.

At state and local level it still is... at Presidential level abortion has seriously hurt Democratic candidates recently.

How do you know it's abortion? There's no evidence that there's a greater percentage of single-issue abortion voters now than before, especially in southwest PA. The umbrella area that abortion falls under is moral values, true, however, the percentage of people who voted on that issue has actually fallen in recent years.

More seriously, I think it's the Democrats abandoning their economic issues. Up until 2000, economic issues were actually becoming more salient. But I'm not sure how salient they will be in the long run. Basically what we have in this country is a middle class that is pretty well off, in which 80% of the people identify. It's hardly a Charles Dickens novel here. Can economic leftism work in a postindustrial economy? That's going to be a key question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How do you know it's abortion? There's no evidence that there's a greater percentage of single-issue abortion voters now than before, especially in southwest PA. The umbrella area that abortion falls under is moral values, true, however, the percentage of people who voted on that issue has actually fallen in recent years.

SW PA is heavily Catholic. For whatever reason, it's a bigger factor in Presidential voting in SW PA than it's been for a while.

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Recent Democratic presidential campaigns have ignored economic issues too much... and they've lost.

[minionofmidas]

Monmouth County, NJ going Bush.  This is usually pretty democratic turf.  I think the 9/11 factor had a lot to do with it switching.

Um... since 1904 it's only gone Democratic 4 times: 1912, 1964, 1996, 2000

Well, it still surprised me.  Gore carried the county by more than 5 % points in a state where pretty much every county went democrat in 2000 except for the rural ones on the Northwestern fringe.

Nowt in Jersey surprised me (well...maybe Somerset staying close) because we all knew from myriad polls that Jersey was going to be much closer than last time around.
Some Reps claimed to believe they would take the state, although they must've known that was nonsense.
Actually, what polls there were out of New York also showed the state less landslidy than last time, but as there were very few polls of the state - no way to claim it was going to be close, after all, so no interest in such polls - I blithely disregarded them. Yet they came true...