SAP leadership race and other stuff

[Gustaf]

And what do you know, Ibrahim Baylan announcing today that he will not stay on as Party Secretary. Enter stage left Veronica Palm. (or Ylva Johansson)

Unless Damberg is party leader, then Palm is out since they are both from Stockholm.

[Swedish Cheese]

This race is becoming more strange every day. Several news sources reporting that 7 regions are now supporting Leif Pagrotsky? WTF? I mentioned him early in this thread, but he's seemed like he was out of the game a long time ago.

Håkan Junholt, who is the Chairman for the regional party organisation in Kalmar has also been brought forward as an alternative, but he's probably as unlikly as Damberg due to large opposition.

I'm still putting my money on Österberg though. No one really likes him, but no one dislikes him either. The left-wing faction hates Damberg, the right-wing faction will never accept Junholt. Pagrotsky is still mostly a longshot last escape. I'm guessing it could be Östros, but it'd be quite strange if he gets promoted, while the rest of the leadership has been sacked.

This seem to be far from over... but the Convention is coming closer very quickly.     

[Gustaf]

My friend tells me that Östros would probably be the favourite if it weren't for the fact that no one knows who would replace him as shadow minister of finance...

His guess was:

Party Leader: Österberg
Finance: Östros
Labour market: Palm
Education: Damberg
Party secretary: I think he thought this was going to be Messing, but I can't recall entirely.

But Pagrotsky would be awesome. It's not out of the question for me to vote S if he takes over.

[Swedish Cheese]

But Pagrotsky would be awesome. It's not out of the question for me to vote S if he takes over.

Well as I said previously in this thread, he's one of few Social Democrats I like. He's just a cool old dude. And his views on the EU and Euro is ideal.

I've heard that Anders Johansson (the mayor of Sigtuna) would be a potential candidate to take over as Shadow Finance Minister if Östros would vacate the job for some reason.

[Sibboleth]

This race is becoming more strange every day.

Ah, but leadership elections for social democratic parties are often very strange when there is no clear favourite.

[Gustaf]

Congress delegate and former chair of LO (the national organization for blue-collar trade unions, a powerful part of the SAP), Stig Malm today called the election process "pure Stalinism" and complained that the elected delegates don't actually get to have a say. Kent Härstedt, another delegate and SAP MP agrees.

Sahlin counters by pointing out that LO is just as undemocratic!

The various contenders say various non-committal fluff to keep on the good side of the people who will pick the leader.

I think the SAP sort of failed to realize how ridiculous they're looking.

[Swedish Cheese]

I noticed I never made candidate presentations for either Östros or Juholt. I still believe they're unlikly to get it, but there's still a small chance I guess. So here you go.

Håkan Juholt



Juholt, is the Shadow Minister of Defense, and Chairman for the regional party organisation in Kalmar County. He's been in parliament since 1994, but has never been a member of the goverment. He's relativly unknown to people who're not political junkies. Juholt is ambitious, and in difference to most Social Democratic politicians he clearly shows it. He was the first MP to call for Sahlin's (and the entire Social Democratic top's) resignation soon after the election, clearly hoping to advance in the political hiarchy. Still, few expected him to be a serious challanger for the leader job, but as other leftiest candidates have dissappeard from the race, Juholt has managed to position himself as the opposition to another leader from the party's right-wing.

+ To most people he's very much a fresh face, something that SAP might benefit from. Also he's not from Stockholm or any of it's two boarder counties.

- He's unexperienced and untried.

Thomas Östros     



Östros, who's held too many minister positions I won't bother to list them, is one of the party's most well-known politicians due to being a member of the trio who lead the party during the past election failure. While the woman and the immigrant of said trio has already been fired for the election results, the male, white, and middle-aged Östros is now considered for a promotion. Östros is slightly to the right in the party, and has since the election called the Social Democratic tax-policies and economic-policies bad. He's very ordinary, and the only way he sticks out from the crowd is that he's extraimly academicly skilled.

+ He's very experienced

- He's seen as one of Sahlin's closest allies. He's rather boring, very uncharismatic. Basicly making him leader would mean the Sahlin leadership being continued, just with another face.


To refresh your memory, here are the two other current main candidates.

Sven-Erik Österberg



Österberg, a former Minister in the Persson Goverment and mayor of the small industrial town of Skinnskatteberg, is the current Social Democratic whip in parliament and the big favourite according to most media. He represents the centre of the party and would probably be a compromise between the left- and right-wing of the party. He has a background in the unions and has in difference to many Social Democratic politicians these days, actually had a real labour job in the forest industry. Österberg also appear to be a bit more socially conservative than most other high ranking Social Democrats, for example coming out in support for a ban on burkas during the election.

Strong sides vs. weak sides:

+ Österberg has long political experience but isn't seen as your typical establishment politician. He also has his political roots in the unions and represents the more old-fashioned industrail working-class. He'd probably be able to win back some of the socially conservative male voters that went for the Sweden Democrats this year, as well as some of the male centrist-voters that switched to the moderates in '06 or '10. The fact that he isn't from Stockholm could also be an advantage against Reinfeldt who's never lived outside of Greater Stockholm.

- He isn't a very exciting candidate. Some would call him old-fashioned and grey, and even though he might be able to win back some voters who have traditionally been Social Democrats, question is weather he'd be able to make inroads with the suburban/small town middle-class and young voters.

Leif Pagrotsky   
 
 

Pagrotsky would be the dark-horse candidate of this race. He's a famous Social Democratic economist and MP who held several cabinet positions between 1996-2006, most notably Minister of Education. He was almost sacked by PM Göran Persson in 2003 when he offically supported and campaigned for the No-side during the Euro referendum, but was saved due to the Assasination of Anna Lindh. Pagrotsky is popular among the public (and I admit, one of the few I myself like) His EU-scheptisism could hurt his chances of ever becoming party leader, although it'd probably help him in a geeral election. He had a minor controversy recently when he said Sweden was the country in Europe who was most hurt by economic crisis. He's also famous because of his hight, only 161 cm.

Strong sides vs. weak sides:   
     
+ Popular among the public. He's likable and experienced. The fact that he's not from Stockholm could also only help him outside of Stockholm.

- Old, appears slightly confused when speaking, and is weak in debates. The fact that he's never been considered a front-runner for the leader position even though he has years of experience says something.

     

I'm not going to cover Damberg. The left of the party will never accept him as leader. He won't be nominated.   

[Gustaf]

Pagrotsky has said no, it seems.

From the smoke-filled rooms, rumour has it that Östros is now the favourite, believe it or not. Damberg is still blocked by the left and Österberg seems to be viewed more as a compromise option than as a real option. Juholt seems to be more of a desperate play by the left than a serious option and Sommestad seems to have vanished.

Messing, Nuder and Eneroth have all said no, of course.

[Swedish Cheese]

Also SVT (the Swedish BBC) reporting today that Leif Pagrotsky has been asked by the Electoral Committee to be their nominee, but that he has declined. Personally I don't believe that he has actually said no, because although he akowledge that he has indeed spoken with the Electoral Committe when called by Aftonbladet's reporters, he would neither confirm or deny if they'd asked him, neither would he say that he wasn't a candidate for the job.

If Pagrotsky isn't going to accept the position, why wouldn't he say it in public, just like Nuder, Messing and Enroth? I think he will take it.

[Gustaf]

Former PM, Göran Persson apparently has called around "scaring" people into supporting Östros!

[Swedish Cheese]

We might have breaking news on the way. Press Conference with the Electoral Committee expected today at 1.00 pm Swedish time. They are expected to announce their nominees for leader and Party Secretary.

If most news sources are right, it's a surprising result indeed. 

 

[Swedish Cheese]

Shadow Minister of Defense Håkan Juholt has now officially been revealed as the nominee to become new SAP leader.

Carin Jämtin to be nominated as new Party Secretary... yes... really.

Håkan Juholt



Juholt, is the Shadow Minister of Defense, and Chairman for the regional party organisation in Kalmar County. He's been in parliament since 1994, but has never been a member of the goverment. He's relativly unknown to people who're not political junkies. Juholt is ambitious, and in difference to most Social Democratic politicians he clearly shows it. He was the first MP to call for Sahlin's (and the entire Social Democratic top's) resignation soon after the election, clearly hoping to advance in the political hiarchy. Still, few expected him to be a serious challanger for the leader job, but as other leftiest candidates have dissappeard from the race, Juholt has managed to position himself as the opposition to another leader from the party's right-wing.

+ To most people he's very much a fresh face, something that SAP might benefit from. Also he's not from Stockholm or any of it's two boarder counties.

- He's unexperienced and untried.

[Gustaf]

It's pretty crazy. Juholt seems to be a bit of a goofball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvs6DIRJpeo

[Sibboleth]

We need to get our Ed to grow a tache like that.

[Gustaf]

He looks a bit like Lukasjenko, doesn't he?

I think it's a better choice than Österberg or Östros, at least. Although it's certainly a gamble. He has said that he opposes renewing party policy.

[Swedish Cheese]

I can't really make up my mind on wether Juholt is a good or bad choice. Maybe cause like most people who're not intrested in defense policies I know very little of him. As Gustaf said, it's a gamble, and he actually seems quite charming in many ways. I hope he keeps the mustache.

Why Jämtin was made Party Secretary though is a mystery. The woman behind the subway-butlers idea is now going to be the person in charge of forming the party's national campaign...

[Gustaf]

He has promised to shave it if they win in 2014.

[Swedish Cheese]

He has promised to shave it if they win in 2014.

Another reason not to vote for them then.