is winning 66% nationwide and not winning every state indicative of sorting?

[freepcrusher]

considering Obama won 66% of the under 30 vote nationwide, one would think that he would have been able to win the under 30 vote in all 50 states. After all, Reagan almost won all 50 states with nearly 59 percent. So does Obama winning 45 states in the under 30 vote indicate that a big sort is occuring?

[memphis]

What is a big sort?

[freepcrusher]

it means people moving to places where they feel they fit in more. Although it may be unintentional it leads to more 75-25 communities than 50-50 communities in elections.

[MilesC56]

The 2008 youth vote by state





I find it weird that Obama lost the youth vote in GA, considering that McCain only won there by 5 points.

[Vasall des Midas]

It's called subsample MoE.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So what fraction of old white males in Berkeley voted McCain? Yeah, location makes a big difference.

[Californian Tony]

Here's what the 2008 election would look like if Obama had won 66% of the vote :



Obama : 65.87%, 521 EVs
McCain : 32.6%, 17 EVs

[Nichlemn]

Here's what the 2008 election would look like if Obama had won 66% of the vote :



Obama : 65.87%, 521 EVs
McCain : 32.6%, 17 EVs

Assuming uniform swing? Because that seems rather unlikely, especially for landslides.

[Californian Tony]

How can you say it's unlikely ? You might be right but it can never verified in the reality.

[Nichlemn]

How can you say it's unlikely ? You might be right but it can never verified in the reality.

Well, states vary in the swingy-ness of their voters (as Nate Silver's invaluable article shows). Also, for larger swings, there's the constraint of not being able to go below 0 or above 100, and proportionally less "low hanging fruit" with the same absolute swing size in a strongly partisan state.

[Californian Tony]

How can you say it's unlikely ? You might be right but it can never verified in the reality.

Well, states vary in the swingy-ness of their voters (as Nate Silver's invaluable article) shows. Also, for larger swings, there's the constraint of not being able to go below 0 or above 100, and proportionally less "low hanging fruit" with the same absolute swing size in a strongly partisan state.

Well, you are right. Though I still believe my estimation is still the best we can get.

[DS0816]

The 2008 youth vote by state





I find it weird that Obama lost the youth vote in GA, considering that McCain only won there by 5 points.

… While Obama won the 18-29 vote in South Carolina. Yeah, that 18-29 result in Georgia was a big WTF!

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Here's what the 2008 election would look like if Obama had won 66% of the vote :



Obama : 65.87%, 521 EVs
McCain : 32.6%, 17 EVs

Could you do some more elections like this? (Winning candidate gets 66% of the vote)

[realisticidealist]

With a uniform swing, McCain at 66% of the vote wins everything except Hawaii and DC.

[Californian Tony]

Here's what the 2008 election would look like if Obama had won 66% of the vote :



Obama : 65.87%, 521 EVs
McCain : 32.6%, 17 EVs

Could you do some more elections like this? (Winning candidate gets 66% of the vote)

Of course, are you interested in one in particular ?

[Nichlemn]

66% results in a 50 state sweep for both sides in most cases since 1972. (DC always goes Democratic). Before 1972, the Deep South consistently holds out for Democrats (and Goldwater in 1964, Wallace in 1968). In 1972, Nixon wins Mississippi. In 1980, Reagan wins Utah. From 2000, however, three states start consistently going Republican (Utah and Wyoming in all three, Idaho in 00 and 04 and Oklahoma in 08). 2008 is the first time anything bar DC goes Democratic since 1964 (although Massachusetts is close in 1972 as is Georgia in 1976).

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Here's what the 2008 election would look like if Obama had won 66% of the vote :



Obama : 65.87%, 521 EVs
McCain : 32.6%, 17 EVs

Could you do some more elections like this? (Winning candidate gets 66% of the vote)

Of course, are you interested in one in particular ?

.

Just do a couple of the more modern elections.

[Californian Tony]

Here's 2000 :



Gore : 66.38%, 526 EVs
Bush : 29.87%, 12 EVs

Note that, due to independents being stronger that year, a 66% win for Gore results in a much higher margin of victory than for Obama in 2008.

[Nichlemn]

Note that, due to independents being stronger that year, a 66% win for Gore results in a much higher margin of victory than for Obama in 2008.

Perhaps it should be "66% of the two party vote". Otherwise, varying third party performances make elections not really comparable.

[Californian Tony]

Or rather "a 32 points margin of victory".

[JulioMadrid]

I'd like to see a map where Landon wins 66% of the vote (1936)

[realisticidealist]

I'd like to see a map where Landon wins 66% of the vote (1936)

[JulioMadrid]

I'd like to see a map where Landon wins 66% of the vote (1936)

Thanks =)

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

How about Mondale, McGovern or Goldwater?

[realisticidealist]

1964 Goldwater: