Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

The past two decades were basically the story of Democrats losing ground in the South, and Republicans losing ground in California and New England.

With this shift more or less complete, it is apparent that new states will be shifting Dem over the next two decades- heavily Hispanic-populated states, with even Texas perhaps becoming a swing state. But will any states be shifting Republican?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could shift rep in the long term.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

What about Washington, Oregon and Michigan?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about Washington, Oregon and Michigan?

WA and OR are trending dem and will keep trending dem. Hard to tell for Michigan, but I don't see it turning rep.

[Heimdal]

It will probably be states in the Rust Belt, with populations more older and whiter than the national average. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be the first to go, probably followed by Michigan. Maybe Minnesota.

[Person Man]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

[5280]

Around post 2050

[Nichlemn]

What about Washington, Oregon and Michigan?

WA and OR are trending dem and will keep trending dem. Hard to tell for Michigan, but I don't see it turning rep.

Isn't Michigan a fair bit like Pennsylvania demographically? Why would PA trend Democratic while Michigan doesn't? (Or are you saying that it might trend Republican, but not enough to be more Republican than average?) Also, around half of all states in most cases must trend Republican. What are the states that are more likely to trend Republican than Michigan?

An annoying thing I have seen was Democrats after 2008 claiming that nearly every state was "blueing" and Republicans after 2010 claiming than nearly every state was "reddening". But in terms of trends, that obviously can't be the case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michigan is far more solid than Pennsylvania. I can't see it shifting rep before many time.

[Nichlemn]

Michigan is far more solid than Pennsylvania. I can't see it shifting rep before many time.

"Far more solid"? Arguably true for 2008, but not really in any other elections. MI was only slightly more Democratic than PA from 1996-2004, however, it was less Democratic from 1984-1992. Another thing that can be inferred from state trends is that PVIs can change quite quickly.

Also, it's unclear whether you mean "become a Republican-leaning state" or "trend Republican".

[tpfkaw]

What I expect (at the federal level):

(Green = could go either way, gray = will remain stable)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michigan is far more solid than Pennsylvania. I can't see it shifting rep before many time.

"Far more solid"? Arguably true for 2008, but not really in any other elections. MI was only slightly more Democratic than PA from 1996-2004, however, it was less Democratic from 1984-1992. Another thing that can be inferred from state trends is that PVIs can change quite quickly.

Also, it's unclear whether you mean "become a Republican-leaning state" or "trend Republican".

IMO, "shifting republican" would imply Michigan being more republican than the nation. Which is, again, doubtful.

[Niemeyerite]

What I expect (at the federal level):

(Green = could go either way, gray = will remain stable)

IMO, Mississippi and Alabama will shift democrat and california will remain stable.

[tpfkaw]

What I expect (at the federal level):

(Green = could go either way, gray = will remain stable)

IMO, Mississippi and Alabama will shift democrat and california will remain stable.

My reasoning on MS and AL is that those two states, along with SC, have very strong racial polarization (with whites voting R in the high 70s, and blacks voting D in the 90s), which has maintained a fairly high degree of stability and even strengthened in recent years.  I think that the coastal South (VA, NC, SC, GA) is going to become wealthier and gentrify quite a bit in the coming decades, which has a good potential to break down that racial voting pattern among whites in SC, but I don't see that sort of demographic/economic change happening as much in MS and AL, so I think they'll remain fairly stable for the time being.  CA I was somewhat unsure of; my reasoning there is that I can't see it becoming any more Democratic than it already is, and if the budget and economic problems aren't solved there in the next few years, I think it'll be very damaging to the CA Democrats.

Of course, all of this is assuming no platform changes in either of the two parties, which isn't terribly likely; I think the Dems will shift more in a "Jim Webb" direction (to try to regain the white working-class voters they're currently shedding) and the GOP in a "Mitch Daniels" direction (to appeal more to wealthy, socially liberal, or minority voters).  That would, of course, lead to a rather different map:

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I am curious as to why some on the forum feel the South will become more Democratic over time. Its possible for sure but I am curious why (save for the "affluent whites moving in" theory which may be highly valid).

Does anyone see any possibility that any signifcant urban area will turn Republican?

[Napoleon]

What makes Jim Webb so appealing to the white working class? I never perceived him that way, especially given his 2006 campaign. Additionally, what about Mitch Daniels could possibly be socially liberal, or even moderate?

No urban areas will be turning Republican. I'd be far less surprised if they were actually trending more Democratic.

[Heimdal]

What makes Jim Webb so appealing to the white working class? I never perceived him that way, especially given his 2006 campaign. Additionally, what about Mitch Daniels could possibly be socially liberal, or even moderate?

No urban areas will be turning Republican. I'd be far less surprised if they were actually trending more Democratic.

Mitch Daniels doesn't need to be socially liberal to be a successfull candidate. What crushed the GOP in the suburbs (outside of th South) in 2008 and 2006 was that George W Bush and the party seemed incompetent, and too focused on social issues.
Mitch Daniels is obviously a social conservative, but he doesn't let him define him the way it defines Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. To me it looks like he is defined by managerial competence, that he knows how to run the executive government in his State. I believe that will make him more competitive in the suburbs than any other Republican candidate as of today.

[Smash255]

I am curious as to why some on the forum feel the South will become more Democratic over time. Its possible for sure but I am curious why (save for the "affluent whites moving in" theory which may be highly valid).

Does anyone see any possibility that any signifcant urban area will turn Republican?

Depends on where you are talking about.  Some areas will fit in the well educated affluent northern whites moving in.  Others such as Mississippi have to do with the demographics and ages of the white and black population.    Blacks skew much younger in Mississippi than whites do, the over 65 population in Mississippi is predominately white.  So as the elderly die off the dynamics of the voting population change, and the black % of the voting population increases.

Now it won't probably be enough to make the state Democratic or even toss up, but it can certainly push it away from solid status.

[DS0816]

Which states will shift Republican over the next [few] decades?

The past two decades were basically the story of Democrats losing ground in the South, and Republicans losing ground in California and New England.

With this shift more or less complete, it is apparent that new states will be shifting Dem over the next two decades- heavily Hispanic-populated states, with even Texas perhaps becoming a swing state. But will any states be shifting Republican?

What is meant by few? How many few decades?

I believe Election 2008 is a presidenial realignment favoring the Democrats. I've mentioned this in other threads, referencing 1860-1892 (R), 1896-1928 (R), 1932-1964 (D), and 1968-2004 (R).


No way in hell does it make sense to be forecasting the Rust Belt shifting toward today's Republican Party! I'll give one of them up: West Virginia, an idiosycratic state that has been more Democratic when Democrats were at a disadvantage; it was more Republican (trendline) in 2008 when the state would've gone for Hillary Clinton had she been the 2008 nominee for the D's.

[Mehmentum]

Missouri, Florida, and Ohio are all battleground states that seem to be trending Republican.  Perhaps Ohio and Missouri are only the leading edge of the rust belt?  Its hard to say at this point. 

[Miles]

I'd agree that MN, OH and PA could very well trend GOP over the long term. The Republican governors in those states should keep them Democrat-leaning in the short term though.

[freepcrusher]

it would be a shame if Minnesota trended republican. This is the state that gave us progressive heroes like Hubert Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone etc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

it would be a shame if Minnesota trended republican. This is the state that gave us progressive heroes like Hubert Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone etc.

I feel like you, but that trend seems very strong. It basically went from D+18 in 1984 to D+2 in 2008.

[DrScholl]

Minnesota looks more stable than anything else, Republican numbers in the decade averaged about 45% presidential wise. Democrats overall ceiling seems to be 54%. I don't see a trend as much as I see stability. Republicans would have to make a dent in the metro counties and those counties haven't seemed to budge.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why is everyone thinking PA is trending GOP?  Western PA, sure.  It's old, white, and similar to West Virginia, but it's losing population.  The fastest growing counties are rapidly trending Democratic.  The Pocono region is another mixed bag.  The eastern Poconos are trending Dem due to NYC influences, but the western Poconos/Lackawanna Valley will likely trend GOP.  Look at Lancaster County.  Once nearly impossible for a Dem to win, Obama cam pretty close and people from Philly and Baltimore are moving in fast.

Overall, I'd say PA is stable, if anything trending narrowly Dem with all said and done. 2010 was a blip on the radar due to fiscal issues, but Corbett is wildly unpopular in the Southeast.