Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

[Nichlemn]

Why is everyone thinking PA is trending GOP?  Western PA, sure.  It's old, white, and similar to West Virginia, but it's losing population.  The fastest growing counties are rapidly trending Democratic.  The Pocono region is another mixed bag.  The eastern Poconos are trending Dem due to NYC influences, but the western Poconos/Lackawanna Valley will likely trend GOP.  Look at Lancaster County.  Once nearly impossible for a Dem to win, Obama cam pretty close and people from Philly and Baltimore are moving in fast.

Overall, I'd say PA is stable, if anything trending narrowly Dem with all said and done. 2010 was a blip on the radar due to fiscal issues, but Corbett is wildly unpopular in the Southeast.

It has slower Hispanic growth than average (well, I'm pretty sure it does), so it should be able to trend Republican (in the Atlas sense) by standing still.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Why is everyone thinking PA is trending GOP?  Western PA, sure.  It's old, white, and similar to West Virginia, but it's losing population.  The fastest growing counties are rapidly trending Democratic.  The Pocono region is another mixed bag.  The eastern Poconos are trending Dem due to NYC influences, but the western Poconos/Lackawanna Valley will likely trend GOP.  Look at Lancaster County.  Once nearly impossible for a Dem to win, Obama cam pretty close and people from Philly and Baltimore are moving in fast.

Overall, I'd say PA is stable, if anything trending narrowly Dem with all said and done. 2010 was a blip on the radar due to fiscal issues, but Corbett is wildly unpopular in the Southeast.

It has slower Hispanic growth than average (well, I'm pretty sure it does), so it should be able to trend Republican (in the Atlas sense) by standing still.

Also don't assume Hispanic growth=Dem trend.  Most Hispanics I know are quite socially conservative and religious.  And with the old white perception PA has, remember they're dying off and not many kids to replace them.  Sure western PA will continue to trend conservative and Mark Critz's district will be washed into GOP oblivion, but still watch eastern PA which is more populated, growing, and trending Dem save the classic blue collar ethnic Catholic areas such as Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Hazleton plus Northeast/South Philly and even those areas are a push in terms of trends.

[Nichlemn]

Why is everyone thinking PA is trending GOP?  Western PA, sure.  It's old, white, and similar to West Virginia, but it's losing population.  The fastest growing counties are rapidly trending Democratic.  The Pocono region is another mixed bag.  The eastern Poconos are trending Dem due to NYC influences, but the western Poconos/Lackawanna Valley will likely trend GOP.  Look at Lancaster County.  Once nearly impossible for a Dem to win, Obama cam pretty close and people from Philly and Baltimore are moving in fast.

Overall, I'd say PA is stable, if anything trending narrowly Dem with all said and done. 2010 was a blip on the radar due to fiscal issues, but Corbett is wildly unpopular in the Southeast.

It has slower Hispanic growth than average (well, I'm pretty sure it does), so it should be able to trend Republican (in the Atlas sense) by standing still.

Also don't assume Hispanic growth=Dem trend.  Most Hispanics I know are quite socially conservative and religious.  And with the old white perception PA has, remember they're dying off and not many kids to replace them.  Sure western PA will continue to trend conservative and Mark Critz's district will be washed into GOP oblivion, but still watch eastern PA which is more populated, growing, and trending Dem save the classic blue collar ethnic Catholic areas such as Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Hazleton plus Northeast/South Philly and even those areas are a push in terms of trends.

Hispanics may become less Democratic, but it'll be a long time (if ever) that Hispanic growth doesn't result in a Dem swing (resulting in Rep trends by default in other states).

The main reason I say this is that I see many plausible-seeming arguments that just about every state is trending Democratic. Apparently the West is all trending Democratic, the Northeast is static or trending Democratic, much of the South is static or trending Democratic. Mathematically, about half of all states should be trending Republican, so where could they all be? Pennsylvania seems like an obvious candidate.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Utah will be 80%+ Republican by 2032.

[Mehmentum]

Over the long term, yes, equal amounts of states will trend both ways as the parties change to stay competitive.  The long term is also hardest to predict.

In the short and middle term, I would say more states are trending Democrat simply because of hispanic/ urban growth and the youth vote. 

[Nichlemn]

Over the long term, yes, equal amounts of states will trend both ways as the parties change to stay competitive.  The long term is also hardest to predict.

In the short and middle term, I would say more states are trending Democrat simply because of hispanic/ urban growth and the youth vote. 

I'm referring to the Atlas definition of trend, which is "swing relative to the national swing". If all states swing Dem, but some swing Dem less than others, than those states have trended Republican.

[Vote UKIP!]

Most likely Wisconsin in the short term. Maybe Michigan in the long term.

[Senator Snowstalker]

As the socon wing dies, I presume parts of the North will become more competitive--maybe Jersey, definitely Maine and New Hampshire.

The Dakotas will become more Republican at a congressional level.

In fact, given all of this, I think California could even become more competitive in the future, while the Appalachian states and the Rustbelt become more Democratic.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

The socon wing will become stronger... not die off because of the infusion of Latinos. Blacks will not vote in bloc for the democrats for much longer.

[Senator Snowstalker]

The socon wing will become stronger... not die off because of the infusion of Latinos. Blacks will not vote in bloc for the democrats for much longer.

Hispanics integrate; new generations are already more liberal, and most Hispanic Democrats are also socially moderate to liberal. When they integrate, they move towards the social norm. Combined with an overall trend towards secularization, the Republican Party norm will look less like Mike Huckabee and more like Paul Ryan. Blacks probably won't always vote >90% Democratic, as the Southern racists die out. However, most are in comparatively poorer urban or Southern rural areas, and therefore would be voting more for the party of the working man (and yes, I'm predicting a more populist Democratic Party).

[Jackson]

None

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Paul Ryan is an 'extreme element'?

Um, yes.

[redcommander]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

The Democratic Party of the George McGovern and Walter Mondale era didn't die off after being overtaken by extremist elements.

[TJ in Wisco]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

If the GOP were to die off, then the Democrats would just be taken over by extreme elements and cause GOP to be resurrected, some other party to rise, or the Democrats to split. If there was no GOP threat, the Democrats would all be in the mold of Pete Stark or Alan Grayson. This would scare off the American electorate into voting for something else, perhaps an organized Tea Party.

The US political system all but guarentees two parties and whoever is in power will be subject to more scrutiny than the opposition. We will remain essentially a 50-50 Rep and Dem country until the system changes.

[DS0816]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

A lot of the previous respondents don't realize it.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

If the GOP were to die off, then the Democrats would just be taken over by extreme elements and cause GOP to be resurrected, some other party to rise, or the Democrats to split. If there was no GOP threat, the Democrats would all be in the mold of Pete Stark or Alan Grayson. This would scare off the American electorate into voting for something else, perhaps an organized Tea Party.

The US political system all but guarentees two parties and whoever is in power will be subject to more scrutiny than the opposition. We will remain essentially a 50-50 Rep and Dem country until the system changes.

That's vague.

[TJ in Wisco]

You folks realize the GOP is pretty much a sitting duck now? It's too late for it to evolve. Once a party is taken over by the most extreme elements, that's it. That's how parties die off.

If the GOP were to die off, then the Democrats would just be taken over by extreme elements and cause GOP to be resurrected, some other party to rise, or the Democrats to split. If there was no GOP threat, the Democrats would all be in the mold of Pete Stark or Alan Grayson. This would scare off the American electorate into voting for something else, perhaps an organized Tea Party.

The US political system all but guarentees two parties and whoever is in power will be subject to more scrutiny than the opposition. We will remain essentially a 50-50 Rep and Dem country until the system changes.

That's vague.

I should have said “unless the system changes", ie. we change to a parliamentary system or allow second-choice votes or something of that nature.

[TJ in Wisco]

Is this the 2092 electoral map that some of the Democrats on this forum are expecting? Or will we have a new party? What will replace the GOP if it dies off? Will our US political system completely change by then, rendering this discussion moot? Are we in a Brave New World or something?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is this the 2092 electoral map that some of the Democrats on this forum are expecting?

With the urban areas growing in every state at the expense of the rural areas, I wouldn't be surprised.

I'd love to see what everybody's prediction is about when each GOP-leaning state will become Democratic-leaning.

[memphis]

Is this the 2092 electoral map that some of the Democrats on this forum are expecting? Or will we have a new party? What will replace the GOP if it dies off? Will our US political system completely change by then, rendering this discussion moot? Are we in a Brave New World or something?

The GOP had better improve among minorities unless they want something similar to that map to occur. There's not much future in being the party of West Virginia voters.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

With the urban areas growing in every state

at the expense of the rural areas

[Heimdal]

For the GOP to become competitive statewide outside of the South and the Midwest several things need to occur.

1. First of all they need to focus on rebuilding the state parties in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Take for example my own state, Connecticut. The state party almost doesn't excist outside of the areas in and around CT-4 and CT-5. That might net you a few Congressional seast in a wave year (although it didn't in 2010), but you wont win in a Presidential election.
They need to bring forth candidates that can apeal to middle-of-the-road voters, which means easing down on social issues and rather stressing fiscal policy.

2. Second of all. The party can't allow itself to be dominated by people like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman and Glenn Beck. They might stimulate the Conservative base in places like Texas and Oklahoma, but they are killing us in the Northeast.

3. The third issue is that the party needs to become more tolerant of different opinions. You should be able to be a pro-choice moderate like Olympia Snowe without having people call on you to leave the ancestral party.
Somewhere here we shoud probably reform the primary process. Make it more open to independent voters as well as the Conservatives.

I think these steps wouldn't just help us in Maine, Connecticut and Upstate New York, but also places we have lost ground in recently, like North-Virginia, the Research-triangle in North Carolina and the Los Angeles suburbs.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

Utah

[Communists For McCain]

I don't mean to use this line that has been used often but the Republican Party has survived in much worse political climates than the current political climate (which they somehow manage, despite everybody and their grandmother trending Democratic, capture the US House).  Yet somehow some of our posters want us to believe that "oh noes Republican Party is in it's death throes!!!!" because of a few "extreme elements"?
The Republican Party survived losses on par with the losses that ended up dooming the Federalist and Whig Parties and managed to survive.  If the Great Depression and Watergate didn't kill it off I don't see how some loudmouths would be able to either.

I will admit though with as much cynicism as the populace has shown lately towards mainstream parties and even more Americans registering as "Independent" it wouldn't surprise me if a third major party forms and leads to the dissolution of one of the major ones.

Just saying.