State Changes in 2004

[CTguy]

hmm

[CTguy]

Changing from how it voted in 2000 to how it will vote in 2004.

[TheWildCard]

I'd have to say Wisconsin

[Ben.]

I'd have to say Wisconsin

sorry but no way is Wisconsin the most marginal Dem state…while its result in 2000 was a very slim win for Gore, it was not as slim as Gore’s wins in NM and IA both of which I would say that while tossups are leaning to Bush this time around…factor in a less strong Nader run (in 2000 he got nearly 4%) and that adds between 1.5 and 2% IMHO to the Dem total…add to that the normal interchange of moderates who voted for one party last time but will vote for the other party this time around, which will probably have a very marginal effect and the Dems have the advantage…in addition the make up of its elected officials is overwhelmingly Democratic… the Governor and Lieutenant governor are Democrats, both Senators are Democrats, four of the eight congressmen are democrats and over 800,000 people took part in the Democratic primary this year…now that is a state which must be seen to lean solidly to the Democrats…admittedly it will be close, though I would hazard not as close as last time round, but it will only fall to the GOP after states such as NM, IA and MN…

Back to the original question for the GOP, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia are the most likely to be lost this time around… while for the Dems, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are probably the most at risk…                    

[CTguy]

Not Florida???  The last poll I saw had Kerry 8 points up.

[© Tweed the Younger]

New Mexico.

[Vasall des Midas]

Other. Tied between NH and WV.

[Sibboleth]

New Mexico is very hard for Kerry to hold... WV is very hard for Bush to hold...
I voted other

[Gustaf]

I voted Iowa, but it's pretty hard to call, since there are a lot of tossups in this election.

[CTguy]

Why does everyone keep saying New Mexico will be hard to hold???  This is mind boggling to me...  Bush lost last time because he was trounced in the hispanic vote...  which has now increased as a ratio of the total vote...  I also suspect Nader will poll less there.

[Gustaf]

I agree that Iowa will probably be harder...but most importantly, people forget about PA, which I think Kerry will have trouble with...

[So the Heroes Fall]

I also don't understand why everyone thinks NM will be tough for Kerry to win. Like Arizona, it's been trending more Democratic. If Kerry has a chance at Arizona, he has no chance of losing NM.

[angus]

Given those choices:  NEW MEXICO.

[Platypus]

At this stage, I am 80% sure IA will swap, the highest probability in my mind, followed by NM and about 70%.

The highest for going GOP-dem is NH, followed by WV. I think FL is next because there could well be a massive turnout of ANGRY Floridian democrats this year.

[opebo]

New Mexico and Iowa.   In fact those could be the *only* states that shift.

[Harry]

Ohio

[Ben.]

At this stage, I am 80% sure IA will swap, the highest probability in my mind, followed by NM and about 70%.

The highest for going GOP-dem is NH, followed by WV. I think FL is next because there could well be a massive turnout of ANGRY Floridian democrats this year.

What about Ohio...economic factors there should help the dems far more than in FL or NH

[zachman]

Of these Florida. Ohio gets second. Overall NH is 80% likely to switch and West Virginia is  probably second.

[bgwah]

Party changes me sees:

1. Ohio to the dems
2. New Mexico to the reps
3. Florida to the dems



Although New Hampshire is missing from your poll, I think they have the biggest chance of switching.

[zachman]

Jesus, who will you be voting for in November?

[WMS]

I've been wondering about something that y'all brought up in this topic...

How do you think New Mexico will go this year, and just as importantly, why? I of course have my own opinions but will not state them here since I don't want to bias any of the answers. I'm very curious what the opinion of others is about odd old New Mexico...

[Beef]

Jesus, who will you be voting for in November?

Republicans think they know the answer to that - however, there are a lot of things the Republicans think they know, and are in fact clueless on .

[angus]

I'll bite.  My boss is from NM and he's a flaming Democrat.  An angry vitriolic democrat obsessed with engaging in the sort of educational pop psychology that democrats are so fond of with Republicans such as Bush, Reagan, and Lincoln, in particular, and Hoover to a lesser extent.  He says there is no way NM is going to go to Bush.  Reason enough for me to think that it is.  But since I have other reasons, I'll state them.  Primarily, it's the inroads made by the GOP with the spanish-speaking population there.  Sure, they do not turn out to vote in great numbers like other segments, but every little bit helps.  All you need is 378 more!  Not to mention the fact it's prototypically southwestern.  Clean air and low taxes.  High-spirited cowboys and such.  I was in NM just a couple of months ago.  Saw lots of BC stickers.  And Margaret, a woman I knew in graduate school, the staunchest Republican I have ever met in my life couldn't wait to get out of Boston when she finished and head straight to New Mexico.  Which she did.  Promptly.  I realize that bit of anecdotal evidence may not mean much to most people.  But it does to me.  I say NM will go to Bush.  (somebody will drag this out eight months from now and make me eat it if Bush loses.)

[WMS]

Hooked.

Pretty good description except for the low taxes part. 50+ years of Democratic control does not = low taxes.
And we're so dependent on government for employment that if the feds decided to pull stakes and leave the population would implode like something out of the 1930's. Still, not all Hispanics are alike...witness the NM polling results on gay marriage/civil union/const. amend. in another topic. This state may be borderline Democratic in voting, but it definitely leans in a socially conservative direction. So it certainly is possible for Bush to win...I'm just not sure the NM Reps are organized enough to take advantage of it...

[angus]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.