State Changes in 2004

[TheWildCard]

I won't argue with you that my selection isn't the logical choice but I have a gut feeling on it...

I'd have to say Wisconsin

sorry but no way is Wisconsin the most marginal Dem state…while its result in 2000 was a very slim win for Gore, it was not as slim as Gore’s wins in NM and IA both of which I would say that while tossups are leaning to Bush this time around…factor in a less strong Nader run (in 2000 he got nearly 4%) and that adds between 1.5 and 2% IMHO to the Dem total…add to that the normal interchange of moderates who voted for one party last time but will vote for the other party this time around, which will probably have a very marginal effect and the Dems have the advantage…in addition the make up of its elected officials is overwhelmingly Democratic… the Governor and Lieutenant governor are Democrats, both Senators are Democrats, four of the eight congressmen are democrats and over 800,000 people took part in the Democratic primary this year…now that is a state which must be seen to lean solidly to the Democrats…admittedly it will be close, though I would hazard not as close as last time round, but it will only fall to the GOP after states such as NM, IA and MN…

Back to the original question for the GOP, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia are the most likely to be lost this time around… while for the Dems, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are probably the most at risk…                    

[Vasall des Midas]

New Mexico might very well go Republican. I'd consider it a marginally Dem-leaning tossup, just that wee bit safer than WV or NH. Like, 57,5% chance of holding?

[CTguy]

I didn't put New Hampshire on the list because I think there is almost concensus that that state is more likely than not to go for Kerry.

[Gustaf]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

[Gustaf]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

[DarthKosh]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

Richardson had a weak opponet so it wouldn't really translate.

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

Richardson had a weak opponet so it wouldn't really translate.

who...did the republican Gov from 2000...I saw him on that documentary by that Actor Philip Hoffman (I think that’s the actors name the blonde version of Jack Black) about the 2000 election...well did that Gov run for re-election (he was very pro-cannabis and other drug legalisation as I remember)...

[DarthKosh]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

Richardson had a weak opponet so it wouldn't really translate.

who...did the republican Gov from 2000...I saw him on that documentary by that Actor Philip Hoffman (I think that’s the actors name the blonde version of Jack Black) about the 2000 election...well did that Gov run for re-election (he was very pro-cannabis and other drug legalisation as I remember)...

I think he was term-limited.

[Nation]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

[DarthKosh]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

[Ben.]

 

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

really really doubt it.... PA is a second tier swing state...if the GOP wins there...then they will probably win FL, WV, NH, IA, NM and MN....a Bush swing of 3-4% would be needed to win PA...Gore did win there by 5% last time round...there are far far more marginal states

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

That's what I said.

Ben,

it was 4.17%. And I think Kerry will underperform in the steel states, especially in PA...it's just my gut feeling.

[classical liberal]

I think that after Bush bungled the protectionism he was pushing and especially after he renounced protectionism all together and began criticising his opponenent for supporting it he will be screwed amongst steelers, miners, and factory workers.  Considering that the additional profit to the manufacturing sector from the influx of foreign steel was not translated to higher pay for employees, Bush is probably screwed there too, ergo the 6% margin in Indiana after the latest poll.

[Ben.]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

That's what I said.

Ben,

it was 4.17%. And I think Kerry will underperform in the steel states, especially in PA...it's just my gut feeling.

Why?... free trade and unemployment are big issues in these states (WV, OH and PA) and both will hurt Bush…added to this both the GOP and the Dems will be pouring massive amounts of money and ads into these states so I doubt either Bush or Kerry will sweep them…if Toomey gets nominated in PA then that will also probably help Kerry… remember there are 200,000 unemployed in OH!...how many of these will vote for Bush?...Kerry will do just as well as Gore in these states IMHO, he will also benefit from those in the steel industry who voted for Bush in 2000 and are now angry at him for repealing the steel tariffs…so I really disagree with your argument that Kerry will under perform in the steel states…on the balance of things he might do worse than Gore but he still has the advantage over Bush…and don’t underestimate those blue collar steel workers who voted Bush in 2000 and will be inclined towards Kerry this time around…    

[Kghadial]

I think that after Bush bungled the protectionism he was pushing and especially after he renounced protectionism all together and began criticising his opponenent for supporting it he will be screwed amongst steelers, miners, and factory workers.  Considering that the additional profit to the manufacturing sector from the influx of foreign steel was not translated to higher pay for employees, Bush is probably screwed there too, ergo the 6% margin in Indiana after the latest poll.

A lot of Indiana republicans are mildly (well slightly more than mildly) social conservatives, but are not lockstep with the republicans in fiscal policy. That's how Bayh wins big. A lot of Bayh republicans are going to vote Kerry this time around even without Evan being on the ticket.  I'll say that Bush will lose half of his margin of victory in Indiana (winning only in the single digits). I used to think that Bayh couldn't bring Indiana into the Kerry column but more and more I think that it would be possible.  

When I went home recently I get the feeling that my home county (which hasn't went democrat since obviously '64)  is going to swing for Kerry this time around.  We had 2.9% unemployment at one point during the Clinton administration (hell even I at 15 got a $6.55 after-school job [which now a days is pretty damn good for a teenager in that county] ), and now its considerably higher and if you count discouraged workers unemployment is twice as high.

The issue of trade should kill Bush.  While I am a free-trade supporter his position is wacky.  He was for tariffs, and now he denounces those who would build economic isolationism walls. As Kerry says we do have to "level the playing field for the American worker" .  Bush seems fine with companies whose only export is sending their coporate headquarters to the Bahamas. He seems fine with the fact that its practically impossible to export anything to China or Japan.

Anecdotal evidence I have about Indiana's transformation:
My father works with a bunch West Virginian refugees, their coal mines closed, so they left to work in the county that once was the most dependent on manufacturing, in the nation. I feel bad for them, changing from one dying profession to another.  Solidly Reagan Democrat types, suporters of Dukakis (narrowly), then  half Clinton , half Perot/Bush in '92, Clinton '96, and heavy for Bush in '00 (oddly enough they talk alot about politics).  In any case my father, a pretty constant middle of the road democrat, has been passed by as they moved to Kerry's side.

Two of my good friends were for Bush in '00 because of guns, and now they are just as ABB as I am .

However, Indiana won't flip unless Bayh is on the ticket so ...

I say New Hampshire is most likely to flip, then Minnesota, then WV, then Ohio, then Florida, then NM, then Oregon, then Iowa, then Wisconsin, then Arizona,  then Missouri, then whatever state Brokaw is from

[classical liberal]

I think that Sen. Bayh on the ticket would secure MI, MN, WI, and IA against GOP inroads and pickup OH WV and IN for the Dems.  However, his party needs Indiana's senate seat.  If he had a successor who would be a sure shot to win that seat, Bayh would best serve his party by running.

[Kghadial]

Well Indiana is such a Republican state that I don't think we could have a Dem Senator who's name wasn't Bayh. Indianapolis's mayor Bart Peterson would be a good choice maybe, and I would like Fmr. Representative Roemer to go for it.  However if Indiana allows it then I think Bayh just runs to keep his seat and runs for VP, then when Kerry wins hopefully we will Give Governor Kernan his own term and he could send a Democrat to Washington to replace Bayh.  

Then we have the sticky situation of having an election in '06 for someone to finish off Bayh's term, and we would have find someone to run for Lugar's seat, assuming the old guy retires.

I think Bayh would only have an affect in Ohio and Indiana and Wisconsin and Michigan and none of the rest.  Only places who've heard news about Bayh on TV, ie. areas that get Cincy, Ft. Wayne, Chicago, or S. Bend TV are going to be swayed by Bayh.

[Rev. Matthew]

Florida most definatly

[WMS]

I've enjoyed the comments about His Majesty Bill Richardson...yep, I'm not one of his biggest fans. But he'll still help Kerry.

Anyway, I have some more poll data. Not a head-to-head matchup, sadly. It's long, but who else is doing New Mexico poll data?

Research & Polling, Inc. poll
In the Tuesday, March 23 Albuquerque Journal
"Sample of 330 registered New Mexico voters interviewed by telephone March 10-15." 'MoE: + or - 5%'

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of President George W. Bush?" 43% FAVORABLE, 38% UNFAVORABLE, 15% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 4% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of U.S. Senator John Kerry?" 44% FAVORABLE, 24% UNFAVORABLE, 18% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 14% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY
-R&P's head said that the unfavorable will probably rise once Bush's attacks get underway

-Hispanics: Kerry 55% FAVORABLE; Bush 44% FAVORABLE but also 43% FAVORABLE among Anglo voters, so support about equal by race

-Bush favored by 84% of Reps; Kerry favored by 61% of Dems; BOTH received 22% FAVORABLE ratings from members of the opposite party

-Independents: 37% FAVORABLE about Kerry; 29% FAVORABLE about Bush

-EQUAL ratings by men and women

-Albuquerque area (c. 1/3 of voters): 44% FAVORABLE about Kerry; 41% FAVORABLE about Bush.
-East and Northwest [not the reservations, but the oil patch]: 61% FAVORABLE to Bush and 56% FAVORABLE to Bush respectively
-North-Central: 70% FAVORABLE to Kerry

-74% of Baptists and 61% of other Protestants FAVORABLE to Bush; 64% of "other" religious preference and 54% of Catholics FAVORABLE to Kerry

Make of that what you will...

And, another poll, in the Wednesday, March 24 Albuquerque Journal, by Research & Polling (and yes, R&P and the Journal DO have an agreement)
"Sample of 330 registered New Mexico voters interviewed by telephone March 10-15." 'MoE: + or - 5%'

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Governor Bill Richardson?" 61% FAVORABLE, 20% UNFAVORABLE, 12% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 7% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY
-Reps: 43% FAVORABLE to 38% UNFAVORABLE
-Dems: 74% FAVORABLE
-78% of BOTH Hispanic and Catholic respondents FAVORABLE; 52% Anglo respondents FAVORABLE (to 25% UNFAVORABLE)
-most likely to be unfavorable: Reps (of course) and 'those listing no religious preference', but pluralities in both groups still FAVORABLE
-Independents: 58% FAVORABLE

-North-Central NM: 74% FAVORABLE
Northwest and East: 55% of BOTH areas FAVORABLE
-Albuquerque Metro Area: 60% FAVORABLE

-Richardson best among 18-34 year-olds (72% FAVORABLE); worst among 35-49 year-olds (55% FAVORABLE to 24% UNFAVORABLE)

Man, how many politicians would kill for numbers like that...

[Ben.]

-Richardson best among 18-34 year-olds (72% FAVORABLE); worst among 35-49 year-olds (55% FAVORABLE to 24% UNFAVORABLE)

Man, how many politicians would kill for numbers like that...

Wow...thats amazing... still dont think he should be on the ticket though and looks like he doesnt want to be either...

[ian]

My vote went to Florida, although I probably should have put "other" since Bush is screwing New Hampshire (with his environmental policies, which are destroying NH's lakes).  Jeb can't screw the Democrats this time b/c we know the kind of bull that he pulls during his brother's election.  We are going to win this time.

[ian]

 I think FL is next because there could well be a massive turnout of ANGRY Floridian democrats this year.

No joke.  I agree.