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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  2012 Elections and On
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections and On  (Read 10101 times)
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« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2011, 05:34:52 pm »
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congratulations, barry =)
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« Reply #51 on: March 23, 2011, 06:08:52 pm »
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11:14:Feinstien wins in California.

11:15:Barack Obama carries Ohio.

And with that...
Obama Wins

...Barack Obama is reelected to the Presidency of the United States of America with atleast 284 electoral college votes...it took 270 to win the presidency and Obama according to our projections has done so...
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« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2011, 06:26:04 pm »
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Wolf Blitzer: Well guys pretty big news here. Barack Obama who just eight years ago won his first election victory in the senate...he is now eight years later reelected President. But this came as a surprise...by the way I am told that we can project that Obama will carry the state of Wisconsin...that is called at 11:21 PM eastern standard time...for those keeping record, the election was called with Ohio at 11:15 PM...but Mary Matlin, Obama being reelected is pretty big news...espeically because he was behind in the polls for most of the campaign...this seems like not even a close race...

Mary Matlin: Well we knew that something like this was coming when Virgnia was called so early. That was a true sign of danger for the Gregg campaign and the republican party at the presidential level. Virgnia was expected to be close with maybe a slight edge for Obama...but like we said that was the first time since 1940 or 1944 that Virgnia has been called as the polls closed in the state...

James Carville: Mary is right...everyone talks about 1964 and Virgnia going for Johnson...even then, Barry Goldwater came within about a 54-46 margin of carrying the state...that does not sound close but when Johnson won that year like 61-39...54-46 in a state is close...so Virgnia going so early spelled danger for the Gregg campaign and the republican party at the presidential level...

Wolf Blitzer: Yes, most republicans were left speechless as Virgnia went as the polls closed...some thought they had heard us wrong...some waited for us to retract the state and put it back into the too close to call column...but Obama's advantage appears to be holding up where he will carry the state...

Mary Matlin: And that led to a series of events that reelects Obama to the presidency.

Wolf Blitzer: Thanks to our panel...we will be right back with maybe another projection...but Barack Obama is reelected over former new hamsphire govenor and senator Judd Gregg...more to come.

Gregg: 164
Obama: 294*

* represents projected winner
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« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2011, 06:39:35 pm »
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...Ed Case wins in Hawaii senate election....and Tom Gallagher defeats Nelson in Florida...also Ohioians who support Brown can stop holding their breath, we can project that senator Brown will return to Washington for a second term as senator...
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« Reply #54 on: March 25, 2011, 08:35:43 am »
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that wasn't supposed to happen! Sad
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« Reply #55 on: March 25, 2011, 08:27:49 pm »
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11:45:Judd Gregg carries Montana.

12:01:Judd Gregg carries Indiana.


Hold on we are going to Concord, New Hampshire, where the Gregg family has arrived and Judd Gregg is addressing his supporters. We've projected he has been defeated, lets listen in...

"My family and I are so thankful for all that you have done for us over the last eighteen months…words will never be able to express our thanks to all of you…this is a memory that will be with us for a lifetime. As many of you here know, I have called President Obama and congratulated him on his reelection to a second term as President. We spoke to Mrs. Obama and congratulated them on their election victory tonight. Everyone was very gracious.

When we began this journey eighteen months ago, we wanted to begin a crusade to change America for the better and we have done that. We have brought out new ideas for the nation and these will be seen by republicans in congress. As the polls have seen, it seems that we will be narrowing the gap in the balance of power in the senate. These will also be used in government.

I will also be personally fighting for these ideas for the rest of my life. To all of you our young supporters, you threw your heart and souls into this campaign…you gave us your all and we will never be able to express our thanks to you for that. We…I will never forget you, and I will always be thankful to you.

To all of those who have been with me through every political battle, to my family my thanks and love to you. To President Obama we extend our gracious congratulations and we thank God for all of the blessings and opportunities he has given us over the years. Thank you all very much."


We are coming right back.
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« Reply #56 on: March 25, 2011, 09:04:21 pm »
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Wonderful TL
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« Reply #57 on: March 25, 2011, 09:20:23 pm »
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Well we just heard from Judd Gregg conceeding the election and now to Grant Park in Chicago with the incumbent now reelected President Barack Obama.

"Hello Chicago…thank you all very much tonight America has spoken and given us a mandate to govern for the next four years…I do want to acknowledge that I got a gracious phone call from Judd Gregg tonight and he congragulated me…I know I speak for all of you when I thanked him for his service to our nation and that we looked forward to working with him in the future…

Now America, tonight you have spoken and chosen hope over fear and solutions over problems…we are so humbled by your support and effort put forth in our campaign. I look forward to being president of all the people over the next four years.

When I say that we…”we” are humbled by your support…who do I mean “we?”…well its my best friend, the rock of our family, the nation’s first lady…Michelle Obama…I could not do any of this without her. To my vice president and friend Joe Biden…who never fails to step up to the bat and do what he has to do for America…his wife Jill Biden is pretty good too…

…To my campaign manager David Plouffe and chief strategist David Axelrod…none of this would be possible without you all…Thank you all for what you have done…thank you again to the American people for giving us the opportunity for another four years of leadership…we will not let you down…thank you very much and God Bless America…"
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« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2011, 01:39:58 pm »
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12:30:Judd Gregg carries Alaska.

1:30:Judd Gregg carries Missouri.


The polls in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Virgnia have narrowed. Gregg led for much of the evening in Virgnia, however the call was taken by exit polls. These polls are from people that were leaving the polling place. The margin and projection came from the real northern counties of Virgnia where the margins are big for the democrats. We still believe that Obama will carry Virgnia. In Ohio and Wisconsin, Obama does have a narrow lead. Those raw vote counts have gone back and forth throughout the evening...note these states were too close to call for most of the evening...however, we still believe that Obama will carry both states narrowly, perhaps by a few points. We will keep you up to date.
Lets talk about the senate. So far, the republicans have picked up four seats. Going into tonight, the democrats held a 57-43 senate majority. The republicans must win all four of the senate races that are at this hour undecided. If the democrats can just win one of those races outstanding, we will be able to project that the senate will remain in democratic hands. However, right now, the senate is too close to call...but, the republicans must win all four of the races still outstanding to control the senate. We are close to a projection on the house. The republicans won a slim majority in 2010..and with the Obama victory, it makes it posible for the democrats to regain control. The house is too early to call...
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« Reply #59 on: March 27, 2011, 03:38:07 pm »
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Final Results for the 2012 Presidential Election:


Senate:


I welcome any questions.
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« Reply #60 on: March 28, 2011, 12:04:32 pm »
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2013

Between the election and the inauguration, the cabinet saw no major shakeups. Hillary Clinton announced that she would stay on in the state department. Close Clinton family associates say that she hopes to hold that job at least until after the 2014 mid term elections…possibly until the end of the Obama presidency. Robert Gates also announces that he will stay on at the pentagon.

These were the two high profile cabinet posts that the public was watching for changes to come. Obama told a press conference in Hawaii that he was happy to have the two still working with him. Obama and Biden took the oaths of office for a second time on January 20th 2013. Like four years ago, the weather was near sub zero temperatures, but Obama gave a spirited inaugural address that was well received by the public.

The first Gallup poll following the inauguration showed Obama’s approval rating at seventy-five percent, a very good start for the second administration. Obama held a meeting in early 2013 with republican and democratic members of congress on the economy. The meeting was private and leaders of the parties, including Obama came away from the meeting proclaiming it a success.

President Obama was willing to take some risks in a second administration, as he wanted to look at immigration more closely and even social issues such as abortion. Success or failure was yet to be determined when it came to these issues.

In 2013, some political campaigns heated up. In Virgina, Bob McDonnell, who beat Creigh Deeds in 2009, was running for reelection to the statehouse. McDonnell had enjoyed high approval ratings throughout his term and saw an easy reelection bid coming. Leslie Byrne, former democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, provided the democratic opposition.

In New Jersey, this was a little bit tougher, Chris Christie, the incumbent governor, faced a primary challenge from within his own party for the GOP nomination. As their were televised debates for the republican nomination, Christie struggled to hold his lead in the polls. However, on primary night, Christie narrowly beat back the challenge to be renominated for governor.

In the fall, he would face former New Jersey senator Bob Torricelli for the state house. Torricelli called the governorship his shining glory and the icing on the cake for his political career if he won. Torricelli came out swinging against Christie throughout the campaign and the republican fell behind in the polls…almost desperate for a way to recover. However, late in the campaign, Christie said that he was just being himself on the campaign trail…giving it his all and that if that were not enough, he would leave office knowing that he had done his best without any regrets.

On election night 2013, the citizens of New Jersey and Virgina watched and waited with great anticipation. As the polls closed in Virgina, McDonnell was reelected as governor easily defeating Byrne. McDonnell declared victory to his supporters after Byrne conceded.

In New Jersey, it was a long night and the lead went back and forth. However, Christie pulled an upset and defeated Torricelli by two points. Torricelli was gracious in defeat and Christie pleasantly surprised and relieved.
Obama publically congratulated the two governors on their reelections and pledged to continue to work with them in any capacity that came up. Obama had presided over a relatively calm year in 2013 and ended the year with an approval rating in the mid to high fifties.
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« Reply #61 on: March 28, 2011, 06:14:51 pm »
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Not bad at all.

But a correction; Virginia only allows governors to serve one term. Bob McDonnell would be out after 2013 no matter what.
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« Reply #62 on: March 29, 2011, 12:08:22 pm »
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2014

President Obama spends the year 2014 mostly on the road. But not always inside the borders of America, he attends some summit meetings throughout the world. First to a meeting in London, which was headed by Gordon Brown and other foreign world leaders. Brown had survived a tough campaign the previous year against conservative party leader David Cameron and liberal democrat leader Nick Clegg.

In that campaign, Brown had held his own but still fell in the debates due to the charisma of the other two opponents. He also made the “bigoted woman” gaffe close to the end of the campaign. However, despite all of that, on election night…the labor held a narrow majority over the other two candidates. It was thought that the gains made by the liberal democrats and a surprising drop in the polls for the conservative party as polls reported left the labor party with a narrow majority.

The meetings were seen as very successful. President Obama also visited some parts of southeast asia, and the holy land. Once Obama returned home, he began to focus on the mid term elections. In an appeal for republican support for his party, Obama pushed a tax cut through the congress.

In the fall campaign, some of the matchups made headlines. Both senators Landrieu of Louisiana and Johnson were expected to retire, however, both eventually decided to run for reelection. Some of them faced stiff challenges…especially in Louisiana where incumbent governor Bobby Jindal has decided to challenge Landrieu in the campaign. Jindal is narrowly behind Landrieu in the polls. Johnson is having an easier time in South Dakota.

Some notable races are the following:

In North Carolina, Kay Hagan has faced some ups and downs with her approval rating. Right now, it sits at about forty-seven percent. But, she faces a headline name in the republican primary…Charles Helms, a resident of Winston-Salem is her opponent. Helms…sound familiar?...it should because his father, Jesse Helms, held this same senate seat for thirty years. Helms is trying to win it back for the republicans and his family.

It could be a tough race though as Hagan has led in the polls from the start. Its like Jesse Helms would say, as he said that many people in the state did not like him…”if the democrats nominated Mortimer Snerd to run against me, he would automatically get forty-five percent of the vote and maybe more.” Will his son face the same disliking at the polls? So far it is hard to see.

In Minnesota, its Norm Coleman again running against Al Franken. It looks like this race could be as close as last time around. Last time Coleman lost by only three hundred and twelve votes. What will happen this time? Something to watch and see.

In a few others, Chambliss leads in his bid for reelection in Georgia and McConnell leads his democratic opponent in Kentucky. New Hampshire is also a rematch between Shaheen and Sununu. That race is also looking very close in the polls.
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« Reply #63 on: March 29, 2011, 06:33:27 pm »
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Mid Term Election 2014 Results:

Senate:


Going into election night 2014, the senate looked like the following:

Democrat: 54 (democrat total includes 1 independent in Vermont)
Republican: 46

Coming out of election night, the senate looked like the following:

Democrat: 51 (democrat total includes 1 independent in Vermont)
Republican: 49

The house looked like the following:

Democrat: 191
Republican: 244

Some notable gubernatorial races: Rick Perry wins again in Texas...Rick Scott looses in Florida...republican incumbents enjoy big wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio...republicans pick up Illinois state house...democrats hold state house in Minnesota...perhaps the biggest news of the evening, despite all of the union crisis, Scott Walker holds on in Wisconsin to win reelection...
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« Reply #64 on: March 29, 2011, 08:21:56 pm »
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What are Scott Brown, Gary Johnson, and Jeb Bush doing?
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« Reply #65 on: March 29, 2011, 08:24:42 pm »
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What are Scott Brown, Gary Johnson, and Jeb Bush doing?
All are out of politics right now...but they might come back in during future times...
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« Reply #66 on: March 29, 2011, 08:30:44 pm »
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What are Scott Brown, Gary Johnson, and Jeb Bush doing?
All are out of politics right now...but they might come back in during future times...

I'd like to see all three run for Senate. Maybe in 2020 when Kerry could theoretically retire (if he hasn't already), Brown could run for the seat. Or, say Kerry becomes Secretary of Defense of Secretary of State and an election is held to fill the seat. Maybe Brown could get a low level cabinet position in an upcoming administration. I'm not a big Brown fan, but I think he's the best chance the GOP has to push MA to the right, so I want him to do well.
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« Reply #67 on: March 30, 2011, 11:53:32 am »
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2015

In an address to the nation from the oval office, Obama seemed to be endorsing a “pro choice society and a pro choice America.” At least that is the way that he put it in his speech. President Obama gave an elegant speech that actually left people with more questions, than with answers and understanding.

In more news throughout the next months, it is seen that President Obama is going to be seeking to amend the constitution with a pro choice amendment. The amendment would require an abortion for women below the age of eighteen and those who had an illness, or were consistent smokers during the pregnancies.

The media gave the Obama administration a consistent pounding for the presentation of the amendment and the white house press corps gave Obama and the press secretary a difficult time. However, Obama began to meet with different members of the state senates to attempt to push the amendment through the required number of states. Obama said this was one of his goals before he left office.

Conservative backlash was loud and pro life groups protested endlessly. However, Obama continued with his mission to get the constitution amended with this pro choice plank. Obama attempted to sell it to the American people by campaigning around the country for it and addressing the nation with a joint session of congress on the issue.

This was going on at home throughout 2015, on the world stage, there was trouble in the middle east. Iran was still threatening to attack Israel. President Obama promised time and again that if Israel came under attack, that the US would hold true to its friendship and defend Israel. It seemed to most of the world that Iran's bark was tougher than their bite. They had been speaking of a possible attack for decades and had never come to bring one.
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« Reply #68 on: March 30, 2011, 12:38:20 pm »
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What? There's no need to do this. Why would Obama needlessly risk political capital on this when he could instead do something useful, like legalise gay marriage?
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« Reply #69 on: March 30, 2011, 01:50:24 pm »
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Why the hell would Obama be pushing forced abortions?
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« Reply #70 on: March 30, 2011, 06:22:01 pm »
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What? There's no need to do this. Why would Obama needlessly risk political capital on this when he could instead do something useful, like legalise gay marriage?
He doesn't have to worry about risking political capital...hes not running again in 2016...
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« Reply #71 on: March 30, 2011, 06:22:35 pm »
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Why the hell would Obama be pushing forced abortions?
Well its a lot more likely for him to do it than say Reagan or the two Bushes...
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« Reply #72 on: March 30, 2011, 06:33:41 pm »
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Nicely done Garrison! Smiley
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« Reply #73 on: March 31, 2011, 08:36:46 am »
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Great timeline, but with Obama's risky abortion push 2016 will be hard for the Dems even if the economy is doing better.
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« Reply #74 on: March 31, 2011, 09:06:45 am »
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Nicely done Garrison! Smiley
Thank you
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