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Author Topic: MA-Western New England College: Sen. Brown (R) very tough to beat  (Read 1785 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 14, 2011, 01:59:29 pm »

Scott Brown Favorable Rating:

53% Favorable
27% Unfavorable

Scott Brown Approval Rating:

57% Approve
24% Disapprove

John Kerry Approval Rating:

57% Approve
34% Disapprove

Deval Patrick Approval Rating:

54% Approve
40% Disapprove

Although it is early, looking ahead to the election for the United States Senate in 2012, do you feel that Scott Brown deserves to be re-elected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be re-elected?

52% Deserves to be reelected
28% Does not deserve to be reelected

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican and Mike Capuano, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, the Republican, Mike Capuano, the Democrat, or some other candidate for Senate?

51% Brown
38% Capuano

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican and Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, the Republican, Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, or some other candidate for Senate?

51% Brown
34% Warren

The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 515 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing March 6-10, 2011. The sample yielded 472 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of registered voters.

http://assets.wnec.edu/112/SenatePressReleaseTables_03_14_11.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2011, 02:07:47 pm »
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The numbers will certainly tighten as we get closer to the Election and the Democrats nominate a candidate, but it is encouraging to see Scott Brown in such good shape. Especially considering the lackluster performance by the Massachusets GOP last year.
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2011, 03:30:22 pm »
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Only pickup opportunity for the dems is slipping away. Brown is likely to win. Vicki Kennedy should of ran instead of Coakley and we would of been having this discussion, at the outset.
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2011, 03:37:49 pm »
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In the end, the Democrat who challenges Brown will be the winner. In a Presidential year in a very Democratic state, the Democrat is going to have the edge. The sample seems to include a very low number of Democrats for MA, too low for what the actually electorate will be like.
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2011, 05:36:50 pm »
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In the end, the Democrat who challenges Brown will be the winner. In a Presidential year in a very Democratic state, the Democrat is going to have the edge. The sample seems to include a very low number of Democrats for MA, too low for what the actually electorate will be like.

I agree =)
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2011, 09:58:07 pm »
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While the approval ratings are good, it doesn't mean he's tough to beat.  I think Lincoln Chafee's ratings were touching near 60 when Sheldon Whitehouse beat him.  Joe Manchin in West Virginia was also beloved by people who voted against him.

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« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2011, 10:01:33 pm »
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And PPP has the same poll that has Brown leading by 20. As far as the Whitehouse comparison, Chafee was tea partied by Laffey and was hurt in the primary there is no such tea party challenge.
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« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2011, 10:17:27 am »
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Has Vikki Kennedy announced that she is not running?
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2011, 10:36:33 am »
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Has Vikki Kennedy announced that she is not running?

Yes, and it's for the best.
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2011, 02:29:40 pm »
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And PPP has the same poll that has Brown leading by 20. As far as the Whitehouse comparison, Chafee was tea partied by Laffey and was hurt in the primary there is no such tea party challenge.
Chafee was beat by being tied to national Republicans and control of the Senate being at stake in that election.

I don't see why that message wouldn't work in MA as well.
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« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2011, 02:45:43 pm »
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And PPP has the same poll that has Brown leading by 20. As far as the Whitehouse comparison, Chafee was tea partied by Laffey and was hurt in the primary there is no such tea party challenge.
Chafee was beat by being tied to national Republicans and control of the Senate being at stake in that election.

I don't see why that message wouldn't work in MA as well.

If I remember correctly though, Chafee's approvals were in the positives but not that great around 51-45 or so.

Also unlike Brown Chafee was known for doing nothing, little ideological difference between him and his opponent. Not to mention 2006 was a very bad year for Republicans and Chafee had an R next to his name. 2012 is unlikely to be that bad of a year for the GOP.
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« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2011, 08:47:05 pm »
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In MA there hasn't been much "seasonality" recently, as far as how good the year is for a Dem is concerned.

2008 was a good year for the Dems nationally - 25.81% margin in MA for Obama
2004 was a bad year for the Dems nationally - 25.16% margin in MA for Kerry
2000 was a bad year for the Dems nationally - 27.30% margin in MA for Gore

And being ideologically very distinct from the opponent isn't a particularly good thing when the opponent is much closer to the opinions of the electoral majority in the state.

But, in any case, Brown is not to be discounted. Still, it will be a battle for him, even with high approvals.
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« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2011, 09:33:52 pm »
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I wouldn't say that 2000 was a bad year for Democrats nationally, seeing as they gained seats in both House and Senate and did much better in the presidential race than was expected.
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« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2011, 11:57:48 pm »
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2010 was a bad year for Democrats nationally....and they won basically every single race in MA. 

Just sayin'.
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« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2011, 11:19:59 am »
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Brown stands out because few Massachusetts pols in either party are talented, likable, and good-looking. Whether that gets him past the normal partisan inclination here in a presidential year is to be seen. But if anyone can do it, he can.
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« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2011, 12:56:17 pm »
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Has Vikki Kennedy announced that she is not running?

Yes, and it's for the best.
As a republican, that was the only challenger I was really worried about...so that is good news
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« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2011, 01:53:43 pm »
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The problem for Democrats is that Scott Brown really is just about identical in his viewpoints to the median voter in Massachusetts.  They can only rely on zombie mobilization, not attack ads and such.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2011, 11:07:14 am »

The unbeatable Republican?

But the DSCC received some bad news this week when a poll it commissioned found that Brown's popularity is soaring.

The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73 percent -- easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top Democrats,  Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry.

It also found him running over the magic 50 percent mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins.

The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown.

http://www.salon.com/news/scott_brown/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/03/31/scott_brown_2012_poll
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2011, 09:21:12 pm »
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Vicki Kennedy time was January 10 she would have easily won then, but not now.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2011, 01:19:50 am »
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     Seems like the rapidly-fading New England Republicans have a host of political juggernauts in the Senate. I would normally caution against this as an internal poll, though I really don't see the point in leaking a poll showing your side getting massacred in a race that you would win easily against any other candidate.
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« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2011, 02:18:24 am »
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     Seems like the rapidly-fading New England Republicans have a host of political juggernauts in the Senate. I would normally caution against this as an internal poll, though I really don't see the point in leaking a poll showing your side getting massacred in a race that you would win easily against any other candidate.

it might be a "Don't bother" move.  I.e. the Democrats have basically given up trying to beat him, and are making that public so Liberals don't pressure them to do so when they know its going to be close to impossible.
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« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2011, 09:03:26 am »
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High approvals don't always equal re-election, plus the election over a year away and his record hasn't been hashed out, with a year of votes and positions left to take. 73% seems like a number that would come down to earth at some point, especially when he will have to defend his record.
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« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2011, 01:43:38 pm »
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Time to recruit Zombie Ted Kennedy?
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