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| | |-+  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 42233 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #450 on: August 09, 2011, 11:49:14 pm »
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?
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« Reply #451 on: August 09, 2011, 11:50:42 pm »
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The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.
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Torie
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« Reply #452 on: August 09, 2011, 11:51:59 pm »
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

Correct.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #453 on: August 09, 2011, 11:53:07 pm »
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I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!
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« Reply #454 on: August 09, 2011, 11:53:13 pm »
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

yes, of course.  Unless they persuade one of the Republicans to switch, they'd have to wait till early 2012
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« Reply #455 on: August 09, 2011, 11:54:03 pm »
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Of course, one of the remaining Republicans is a RINO who stood against Walker's union proposal.
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Torie
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« Reply #456 on: August 09, 2011, 11:54:34 pm »
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I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congratulations!
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #457 on: August 09, 2011, 11:54:39 pm »
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

Right - though doesn't this place a lot of power in the hands of the one GOP Senator who voted against Walker's bill?

I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congrats on the first part.  Never heard anyone that excited about watching MSNBC though Smiley
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Lt. Governor TJ
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« Reply #458 on: August 09, 2011, 11:54:48 pm »
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The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.

That is good for Darling as Miquon voted 3.8% better for McCain than the portion of Ozaukee County in this senate district did overall, though only a marginal difference.
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Torie
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« Reply #459 on: August 09, 2011, 11:55:46 pm »
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They spent about two hours talking about how Nikolaus "found" 14,000 votes in the supreme court election but never even mentioned once that the initial count had zero votes in the city of Brookfield. To me that seems like a critical piece of information.

You think?
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Torie
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« Reply #460 on: August 09, 2011, 11:56:28 pm »
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The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.

That is good for Darling as Miquon voted 3.8% better for McCain than the portion of Ozaukee County in this senate district did overall, though only a marginal difference.

What was the McCain margin?
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J. J.
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« Reply #461 on: August 09, 2011, 11:57:52 pm »
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I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congratulations!

Congratulations, Phil.  Smiley
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J. J.

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« Reply #462 on: August 09, 2011, 11:58:20 pm »
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59.7-39.3 in Miquon

But Darling has overperformed McCain substantially pretty much everywhere so far.
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Torie
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« Reply #463 on: August 09, 2011, 11:59:54 pm »
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One more precinct came in, and Darling now up by 4,600 votes. It was the last precinct from Waukesha - 1351(R) to 605 (D).
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« Reply #464 on: August 10, 2011, 12:00:30 am »
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The best place I have to compare to right now is the Washington County part of the senate seat because it's the only one where we have all of the precincts and McCain won it 64.9-33.8.

Darling won it 73-27.
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J. J.
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« Reply #465 on: August 10, 2011, 12:01:59 am »
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Darling 54% @ 83%
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #466 on: August 10, 2011, 12:04:57 am »
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...now all of Waukesha is in. McCain won the part in this senate seat 59.2-39.4

Darling won it 66-34.
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« Reply #467 on: August 10, 2011, 12:06:59 am »
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The best place I have to compare to right now is the Washington County part of the senate seat because it's the only one where we have all of the precincts and McCain won it 64.9-33.8.

Darling won it 73-27.

This time in Waukesha, it was Darling 9,449 to 4,767.  Somebody said she carried the county by 5,000 last time, so on a much lower turnout presumably (was it), her percentage should be up there too.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #468 on: August 10, 2011, 12:09:10 am »
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2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.
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Torie
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« Reply #469 on: August 10, 2011, 12:09:24 am »
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...now all of Waukesha is in. McCain won the part in this senate seat 59.2-39.4

Darling won it 66-34.

So what was the McCain percentage in the Milwaukee County part of the district?  With that, we will know about all we need to know.
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J. J.
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« Reply #470 on: August 10, 2011, 12:11:27 am »
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Darling 54% @ 84%
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Lt. Governor TJ
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« Reply #471 on: August 10, 2011, 12:14:31 am »
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Obama carried the Millwaukee County portion 65.2-33.7, not much different from the numbers in this election at all.

Now, with a 5,013 vote lead for Darling (and my projection of ~2600 additional margin for Pasch in Millwaukee County), the remaining precincts would need to either be much larger than average or waaaayyyy for Democratic than the ones reported for Pasch to win. I believe this is over barring something crazy happening.
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J. J.
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« Reply #472 on: August 10, 2011, 12:15:25 am »
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2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.

Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.  
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #473 on: August 10, 2011, 12:17:10 am »
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2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.

     Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.
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Lt. Governor TJ
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« Reply #474 on: August 10, 2011, 12:18:27 am »
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Let the debating framing and political spin begin.... Wink
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