Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Tender Branson]

So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

[GM Griffin]

So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

Yes, 17/16. The 17 Democrats - as mentioned - are all solidly Democratic and will be very likely to oppose any and every Walker policy put forth.

[Tender Branson]

So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

Yes, 17/16. The 17 Democrats - as mentioned - are all solidly Democratic and will be very likely to oppose any and every Walker policy put forth.

But only for the next 1/2 year ...

[GM Griffin]

We'll see what happens. The fall should be more favorable for Democratic candidates at the state level. Turnout was about 350,000 below where it needed to be for Barrett to win.

[London Man]

With this result, I think the 2012 general is going to a lot closer than I thought a few months ago.

[muon2]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

[Tender Branson]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

So, the representatives in the Senate/House are paid for --- doing nothing in the next 7 months ?

[muon2]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

So, the representatives in the Senate/House are paid for --- doing nothing in the next 7 months ?

Like many states the WI legislators get an annual salary even though the legislative days in the capital make up a few months of the year. In WI the salary is $49,943. During the non-legislative months members are working in their districts with constituents and attending occasional committee hearings on subjects not related to specific legislation.

[Torie]

members are [supposed to be] working in their districts with constituents and attending occasional committee hearings on subjects not related to specific legislation.

Perhaps my little edit makes Muon2's statement a tad more accurate, no?  

[AmericanNation]

Well this certainly brightens things up just a bit.

Honestly I think this is a pretty good outcome, we moved the goalposts to a Barrett win with that retarded exit poll, when we were actually expecting a narrow loss. The loss was a little more than narrow, but we still managed to block Walker's future agenda despite the amount of money poured into the state.

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

State Senate is likely to go more GOP in November, Wisconsin has one of the most powerful Governorships in the country, and Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

 

[Gravis Marketing]

Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

[krazen1211]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

[AmericanNation]

Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

The Jim Doyle GAB made this round of recalls occur in districts that no longer exist.  Good luck in actual districts this November.  

Obama will only help (if at all) in solid seats, so that's irrelevant.  

Republicans in congress have obstructed UNpopular measures and it isn't like anything serious has been purposed/pushed by democrats anyway.  Walker is a workhorse and will push his agenda/the state forward -- quite a distinct difference. 

If stuff like the mining bill (wildly popular/important) get's obstructed again, you will see dem state senators punished.  That is why a few Ds will play ball.  Not everyone will keep drinking the kool-aid.     

Nice try.          

[TJ in Wisco]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the new SD-21 in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.

[Vosem]

Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

You're forgetting redistricting, which was passed by Walker and the Fitzgeralds. It's a virtual certainty Republicans retake the Senate in November (unless Democrats get lucky and it's a Dem landslide year, in which case they'll have to wait for the inevitable snapback in 2014).

[Gravis Marketing]

Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

You're forgetting redistricting, which was passed by Walker and the Fitzgeralds. It's a virtual certainty Republicans retake the Senate in November (unless Democrats get lucky and it's a Dem landslide year, in which case they'll have to wait for the inevitable snapback in 2014).

Ok, so the Dems suffering "backlash" and punishment for their behavior isn't the driving factor.

[AmericanNation]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the new SD-21 in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.

Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state. 

[AmericanNation]

Ok, so the Dems suffering "backlash" and punishment for their behavior isn't the driving factor.

I said "IF" they "continue" their behavior.  They haven't decided to keep the inmates in charge of the asylum yet.  Adults could appear in the wis-dem party, Walker did offer an olive branch and he is a man of extreme integrity.  That is "one factor", not necessarily the "only/driving factor."   

[Kevinstat]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the new SD-21 in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.

Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state.  

Until the Senators elected this November are sworn in (for their new terms) all State Senators in Wisconsin were supposed (absent any resignations and/or recalls) to represent the "old" districts.  While the next time the Senate meets will be after half (or just over or just under) of the Senators will have been elected from new districts, the other roughly half of the Senators (if not for this years recalls and that Republican State Senator who resigned) will have begun their still-current term at a time when everybody was representing the old districts.  Wanggard was elected in 2010 from the same district being used in the recall.  I'm glad their were some "Jim Doyle hacks" to prevent an incorrect decision to use the new district boundaries for the recall elections which are recalling people who represent the old districts.

Now I think all State Senators should be up in '2' year elections like in Illinois (unless you have two Senators from each district, each one elected every other even year like in West Virginia, where one Senator will represent each old district and one Senator could represent each new district from the 2012 to 2014 elections), but in the existing case in Wisconsin using the old districts for recalls before November makes more sense.  I'd argue the same even for 2013 recalls and specials in seats where the last regularly scheduled election was in 2010, but it would be more open to interpretation.

[Torie]

to prevent an incorrect decision to use the new district boundaries for the recall elections which are recalling people who represent the old districts.

I agree with the above. He's absolutely right.

[Meeker]

Yeah, having a new set of voters recall someone that a different set of voters elected is pretty obviously not a fair thing.

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

[ModerateCoward]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, having a new set of voters recall someone that a different set of voters elected is pretty obviously not a fair thing.

Having two Senate maps in place at the same time is pretty obviously not a fair thing no matter what. The scenario here just shows off the absurdity a little clearer.

[Torie]

As a capstone to it all, here one can savor a montage of  MSNBC's "coverage" of election night in Wisconsin.  I just wish one could have Maddow and Hannity in the same room as a reporting "team" of it all. Maybe they should get a room. They have a lot in common.  And then there is that fat guy. Oh dear. From what rock did he slither out from under?