Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Randy Hopper's 2008 opponent is running in the recall election. He only won by 263 votes last time, but of course, Obama was a big lift for the Democratic ticket in Wisconsin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Precinct data for the Supreme Court election is out (except for Milwaukee, Sauk, and one other county), and I've been trying to figure out the results by Senate district for the recall eligible Senators. Here's what I've gotten so far:

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57.9% Prosser
District 4 (Lena Taylor - D) - 73.4% Kloppenburg
District 6 (Spencer Coggs - D) - 77.5% Kloppenburg
District 8 (Alberta Darling - R) - 58.8% Prosser
District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 50.5% Prosser
District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 55.4% Prosser
District 14 (Luther Olsen - R) - 54.7% Prosser
District 16 (Mark Miller - D) - 69.8% Kloppenburg
District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 52.8% Prosser
District 20 (Glenn Grothman - R) - 74.3% Prosser
District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51.2% Kloppenburg
District 24 (Julie Lassa - D) - 54.9% Kloppenburg
District 26 (Fred Risser - D) - 82.4% Kloppenburg
District 28 (Mary Lazich - R) - 69.6% Prosser
District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 50.01% Kloppenburg (no kidding, a 7-vote margin)
District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 57.7% Kloppenburg

I make no claim as to the veracity of these numbers, because the ward reporting is kind of screwy for a lot of the larger towns in the state.

[jimrtex]

So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

There is no recall question.  There is just a new election in which the incumbent is automatically included unless he resigns.  There can also be a primary, so it can be strung out into the summer.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They finally got Milwaukee up, so I finished the results from the Supreme Court race.

[cinyc]

They finally got Milwaukee up, so I finished the results from the Supreme Court race.

What's the final margin?  Prosser by about 7,300?  Is it within 0.5%?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.

[cinyc]

Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.

Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.

[cinyc]

Kapanke is challenging the vailidity of the recall petition against him.

[Dgov]

Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.

Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.

Its not like it would matter all that much.  Recounts in WI only cost like $20,000 i think.
Though it would probably make her look like a sore loser, so i don't know.

[cinyc]

Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.

Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.

Its not like it would matter all that much.  Recounts in WI only cost like $20,000 i think.
Though it would probably make her look like a sore loser, so i don't know.

I'd ask for a recount just to make sure that there was nothing fishy about the results, particularly in Waukesha or Dane counties.  It's close enough and Kloppenburg is well within her rights to ask for one.  Doing so doesn't have to make you look like a sore loser if you do it quietly without demonizing the opposition.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Petitions to recall Olson to be filed today. 14,733 signatures required, 23,000 reportedly to be filed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I made a few mistakes in my district calculations, mostly thanks to the screwed-up formatting of the results posted by the GAB:

The 10th actually went for Kloppenburg with 51.3%, not Prosser with 50.5%.
The 16th went for Kloppenburg with 66.7%, not 69.8%.
The 30th went for Prosser with 52.2%, not Kloppenburg by a hair.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Why isn't Harsdorf getting more attention? Seems like a ripe target.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Appears she is: http://www.newrichmond-news.com/event/article/id/42647/group/News/publisher_ID/9/

Oh hey this is the district just over the Minnesota border. I can actually help out!

[Smash255]

Harsdorf petition will be filed tomorrow

http://www.twincities.com/ci_17875694?nclick_check=1

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall.

[Dgov]

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall.

Is he the one from the ~55% Walker district?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alberta Darling makes five Republicans facing recalls.

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall.

Is he the one from the ~55% Walker district?

Probably. It went about 55% for Prosser.

[ag]

Actually, it won't be just one, but three Dems: Holperin, Hansen and Wirch:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/120293779.html

So, we have 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats already w/ enough signatures. Assuming the Dems will also get enough signatures on Darling (seems to be a reasonable assumption at this point, given the nature of her district and given that Dems still have till May 5th to gather signatures), it seems that 8 state senators out of 16 eligible for recall will actually have to fight an early election (5 Reps, 3 Dems). Does it look like that will be it?

[Gravis Marketing]

Signature-gatherers in one recall race got signatures by bribing people with drinks--"shots for signatures."

I don't care so much about the fraud angle, it's nearly impossible to stamp this kind of thing out. But perhaps it indicates that the petitions may not demonstrate the strength in the voting booth that supporters hope.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/21/wisconsin-recall-shots_n_851459.html

[TexasGurl]

Funny none of the anti dem petitions have been filed yet but they say they have the needed signatures.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Funny none of the anti dem petitions have been filed yet but they say they have the needed signatures.

Uh, actually they filed three today. Hansen, Holperin, and Wirch. Darling also got filed today.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Luther Olson has an opponent, State Rep. Fred Clark.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This week is the deadline for some of the outstanding recall petitions against Democratic Senators. Lena Taylor and Fred Risser on Monday, Spencer Coggs and Mark Miller (note that he has two active, one that's not due until May 4) on Tuesday. My guess is none of them succeed, since they're all in safe districts, and the Republicans haven't had as much success getting these petitions done as the Democrats have.

The three remaining Republican petitions (Robert Cowles, Glenn Grothman, and Mary Lazich) are due May 2. I haven't heard anything about these, but since they have another week to finish them, I'm guessing at least one will be filed.

There's also one Democratic petition (Julie Lassa) which isn't due until May 16. I'd give it a 50/50 shot of happening.

[So the Heroes Fall]

LOL, Risser. Doesn't he represent the bulk of Madison? Why even bother with him?