Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #425 on: August 09, 2011, 11:12:21 PM »

With 9 of the 10 outstanding precincts in Waukesha County having come in, Darling now up by 2,628 votes.
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Torie
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« Reply #426 on: August 09, 2011, 11:12:54 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 11:14:58 PM by Torie »


Because Waukesha did its vote dump. Supposedly 17 precincts still out. So yes, it might be tight.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #427 on: August 09, 2011, 11:14:06 PM »

I was aware Tongue
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snowguy716
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« Reply #428 on: August 09, 2011, 11:14:49 PM »

I wouldn't call this turkey cooked, but I'd say she's about done.  And it will be in Darling's favor.
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J. J.
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« Reply #429 on: August 09, 2011, 11:17:55 PM »

Darling 53% @ 80%
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Torie
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« Reply #430 on: August 09, 2011, 11:21:03 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 11:23:42 PM by Torie »

I wouldn't call this turkey cooked, but I'd say she's about done.  And it will be in Darling's favor.

Darling bounced up again, up now by 3,100 votes at 53%.  The Dem percentages in the north shore suburbs of Milwaukee county vary some, so whether it is skin tight, or Darling winning by about 1,500, depends on where the Milwaukee county precincts that have been counted came from.

How many precincts are out in Milwaukee County?  Is it only 10?  If so, that means one in Waukesha, and 4 still out in Ozaukee. And that makes it a very tall order for the Dem.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #431 on: August 09, 2011, 11:22:40 PM »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.
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Torie
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« Reply #432 on: August 09, 2011, 11:24:45 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 11:28:27 PM by Torie »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  Smiley

By the way, Darling's performance matches the one she had in 2008 - everywhere. There are no anomalies.

One more precinct came in (15 still out, including the one in Waukesha), and Darling's margin increase t0 3,800.
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J. J.
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« Reply #433 on: August 09, 2011, 11:25:49 PM »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

BREAKING:  The Democratic Party just realized how badly they are down.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #434 on: August 09, 2011, 11:28:32 PM »

If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.
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Torie
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« Reply #435 on: August 09, 2011, 11:30:45 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 11:34:52 PM by Torie »

If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to be GOP, but went Dem (think Montco county in PA), but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole. They currently by the way are in Sessenbrener's CD, but were dumped in the redistricting since they were the most Dem available territory around in which the Milwaukee CD could expand.  
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #436 on: August 09, 2011, 11:31:10 PM »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  Smiley

I just report the stuff, my good friend. I leave it up to the dear reader to decide the veracity of any claims I make or claims of third parties I report.
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Torie
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« Reply #437 on: August 09, 2011, 11:32:04 PM »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  Smiley

I just report the stuff, my good friend. I leave it up to the dear reader to decide the veracity of any claims I make or claims of third parties I report.

OK.  Given who you are, I was not sure what your posture was. Tongue
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #438 on: August 09, 2011, 11:34:42 PM »

If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to by GOP, but went Dem, but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole.

I meant the other 39 Millwaukee County precincts in the senate district that have already reported, not the entire county.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #439 on: August 09, 2011, 11:35:11 PM »

here's a link for those scalawags what doubt my journalistic integrity: http://www.wisdems.org/news/press/view/2011-08-waukesha-county-tampering
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Shilly
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« Reply #440 on: August 09, 2011, 11:36:48 PM »

Rumor has it that Pasch only made up 1,000 votes from the rest of Milwaukee.
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Torie
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« Reply #441 on: August 09, 2011, 11:38:11 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 11:41:41 PM by Torie »

If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to by GOP, but went Dem, but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole.

I meant the other 39 Millwaukee County precincts in the senate district that have already reported, not the entire county.

Oh, OK. Given that - game over. There is not that much variation in the north shore suburbs in turnout, and I am just hearing on the radio now that the Milwaukee County precincts still out are more GOP friendly than the ones that have been counted. I wish I knew which burbs have reported.
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J. J.
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« Reply #442 on: August 09, 2011, 11:39:24 PM »

BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  Smiley

By the way, Darling's performance matches the one she had in 2008 - everywhere. There are no anomalies.

One more precinct came in (15 still out, including the one in Waukesha), and Darling's margin increase t0 3,800.

Lief thinks that government workers are popular and they have to do is protest and people will love them, too.

The Democrats just challenged the most far right labor position in the US, in a fairly liberal state, and it is starting to look like they lost.  It certainly was not the expected victory.  The world is changing.

Darline 53% @ 82%
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Torie
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« Reply #443 on: August 09, 2011, 11:40:57 PM »

Rumor has it that Pasch only made up 1,000 votes from the rest of Milwaukee.

And still 1 precinct left Waukesha, 2 in Ozaukee. 12 are uncounted in Milwaukee, which allegedly only generated a 1,000 margin for the Dem. How one knows that I don't know.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #444 on: August 09, 2011, 11:42:51 PM »

It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.
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ag
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« Reply #445 on: August 09, 2011, 11:45:46 PM »

It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They are just a bit behind. But the truth is, Milwaukee was ahead of the rest of the district most of the night.

The interesting thing is, I have a suspicion, Nikolaus has been overuled. She has said she is not reporting by town on the night of the election, but there is reporting by precinct, in fact. But there is no link to this from her website (at least, originally there was not). And most of the precincts were reported right after she said it will take another hour. Funny.
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Torie
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« Reply #446 on: August 09, 2011, 11:46:31 PM »

It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They probably don't know that, and are just repeating the Dem talking points. And they certainly don't know how to detect anomalies. In any event, it may be around a 3,000 vote margin, and that would mean that the voters in Waukesha really voted close to even, but then had their votes changed by the clerk or something to the normal 2-1 GOP margin. Pathetic talking heads.  Pathetic.
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Torie
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« Reply #447 on: August 09, 2011, 11:48:34 PM »

It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They are just a bit behind. But the truth is, Milwaukee was ahead of the rest of the district most of the night.

The interesting thing is, I have a suspicion, Nikolaus has been overuled. She has said she is not reporting by town on the night of the election, but there is reporting by precinct, in fact. But there is no link to this from her website (at least, originally there was not). And most of the precincts were reported right after she said it will take another hour. Funny.

My link I put up 45 minutes ago is from her website actually. So there goes that theory!  Smiley On the other hand, I can't find anything from Milwaukee County. Very suspicious!  Tongue
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #448 on: August 09, 2011, 11:49:02 PM »

They spent about two hours talking about how Nikolaus "found" 14,000 votes in the supreme court election but never even mentioned once that the initial count had zero votes in the city of Brookfield. To me that seems like a critical piece of information.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #449 on: August 09, 2011, 11:49:14 PM »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?
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