Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 06:46:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 30 Print
Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 43471 times)
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3383
United States



View Profile
« Reply #475 on: August 10, 2011, 12:21:53 am »
Ignore

Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.

These are all districts Republicans managed to win in 2008, which was a good year for Democrats. All spin aside, Democrats gained overall.

2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off. Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #476 on: August 10, 2011, 12:23:49 am »
Ignore

Obama carried the Millwaukee County portion 65.2-33.7, not much different from the numbers in this election at all.

Now, with a 5,013 vote lead for Darling (and my projection of ~2600 additional margin for Pasch in Millwaukee County), the remaining precincts would need to either be much larger than average or waaaayyyy for Democratic than the ones reported for Pasch to win. I believe this is over barring something crazy happening.

That fits in with the comment/rumor from the Darling campaign that the remaining precincts in Milwaukee County are more GOP than what has been counted, since Darling has run ahead of McCain everywhere else by another 5% or so. So if that rumor is true, it won't be very close really a margin, perhaps by about 4,000 votes or so as a guess.
Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #477 on: August 10, 2011, 12:25:07 am »
Ignore

Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.

These are all districts Republicans managed to win in 2008, which was a good year for Democrats. All spin aside, Democrats gained overall.

2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off. Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.


I guess everyone is happy then. Congratulations!  Smiley
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #478 on: August 10, 2011, 12:26:06 am »
Ignore

The AP has called it for Darling (or at least has placed a check mark next to her name on their results website).
Logged

Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51732


View Profile
« Reply #479 on: August 10, 2011, 12:26:45 am »
Ignore

Over. MSNBC and the AP call it. Lovely.
Logged

J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32037
United States


View Profile
« Reply #480 on: August 10, 2011, 12:30:12 am »
Ignore

This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
ℒief
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32339
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #481 on: August 10, 2011, 12:32:03 am »
Ignore

This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33781
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #482 on: August 10, 2011, 12:36:00 am »
Ignore

Looks like PPP and Magellan did pretty well again.

The results are about what I expected, I thought Democrats would win 2 of them.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #483 on: August 10, 2011, 12:38:52 am »
Ignore

Probably the most Dem town in the district in Milwaukee County, Shorewood, has all been counted by the way. Pasch got 73% of the vote. And it is bigger than most of the villages.
Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #484 on: August 10, 2011, 12:41:18 am »
Ignore

This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol

Is there some type of ridiculous hackery or self-parody goldmine? That quote belongs there if so.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #485 on: August 10, 2011, 12:46:43 am »
Ignore

What does this say about the 2012 elections?  Democrats got 2/3 of the way there, but still did not win.  I'm getting mixed messages.
Logged
AUH2O Libertarian
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 73


View Profile
« Reply #486 on: August 10, 2011, 12:49:34 am »
Ignore

According to the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal, Democrats and unions outspent Republican groups 2 to 1 and still couldn't take control of the senate only winning a D+8 district and a race against an adulterer.  Imagine how many teacher retirements could have been funded by the money unions dumped into these races.
Logged

Economic Score: +8.77
Social Score: -5.91

Your score pegs you as economically extremely capitalist and socially libertarian.

--------------------------------------------------

Duluth Eastsider, born and raised.
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #487 on: August 10, 2011, 12:53:49 am »
Ignore

I don't really want to join the cesspool of endless partisan spin, but do want to make one comment about the effects of this result.

The Democrats and labor unions have been publically raking Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans over the coals for most of this year about how the people were going to rise up and strike Walker and his union-bashing policies down. Maybe its because I am usually surrounded by far more liberals than conservatives or maybe it's that a showdown over public employee unions is for me a political nighmare--- I am a strongly conservative Republican who is generally pro-labor, but I have thought for some time that this would be the Republican Party's "day of reckoning" of sorts and it would go down in flames.

But it wasn't. The Democrats picked up a couple seats, one in a district Obama won comfortably and the other by a razor thin margin. But there was no tsunami, no backlash, just an ossification of our current political lines. In a concrete sense, this only effects the control over the Wisconsin State Senate; but in a larger sense shows that the tide of labor power is not very high and a shadow of its former self. To me this is more The Boy Who Cried Wolf than a reallignment: it's the reallignment that wasn't.
Logged

Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #488 on: August 10, 2011, 12:59:38 am »
Ignore

What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?
Logged
IDS Attorney General PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22466
United States


View Profile
« Reply #489 on: August 10, 2011, 01:04:27 am »
Ignore

Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.


     Of course not, though none expected Kapanke to survive & Hopper's prospects were not great either, not to mention others who could have fallen in Hopper's stead. It wasn't the worst feasible scenario for Democrats, but it was still far from the best.
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14791
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: 4.35

View Profile
« Reply #490 on: August 10, 2011, 01:08:12 am »
Ignore

What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.
Logged


Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #491 on: August 10, 2011, 01:10:54 am »
Ignore

What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.
Do you think he actually will, though?  Even if he doesn't, I think this is the end of anti-union legislation in Wisconsin.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14791
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: 4.35

View Profile
« Reply #492 on: August 10, 2011, 01:13:12 am »
Ignore

What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.
Do you think he actually will, though?  Even if he doesn't, I think this is the end of anti-union legislation in Wisconsin.

Honestly, I don't know enough about WI politics to answer that.

I've just heard random speculation on DK Elections that he could switch.
Logged


J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32037
United States


View Profile
« Reply #493 on: August 10, 2011, 01:35:35 am »
Ignore

Darling up 5000+ votes @ 99%

This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol

I guess all those people that just love public sector workers, and who listen to their protests just couldn't find the polls today, right Lief?

LOL for at Lief for ignoring polls and election results.


The Democrats and labor unions have been publically raking Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans over the coals for most of this year about how the people were going to rise up and strike Walker and his union-bashing policies down. Maybe its because I am usually surrounded by far more liberals than conservatives or maybe it's that a showdown over public employee unions is for me a political nighmare--- I am a strongly conservative Republican who is generally pro-labor, but I have thought for some time that this would be the Republican Party's "day of reckoning" of sorts and it would go down in flames.


Agreed.  This wasn't, "Pay for your own benefits" or, "Well, we're going to lay you off," or even, "You can't strike, but you'll have to listen to the arbitrator."  It was, "You can't be represented by a union in collective bargaining."  That is a very right-wing position, and far to the right of me, and even the pre-Watergate G. Gordon Liddy.  Short of saying, "You will be fired/jailed if you join a union," that is the most extreme anti-organized labor position you can take.

Walker just took that position, and the voters said yes.  They said yes in what was a fairly liberal state after a government shutdown and after a well financed and organized campaign to get them to say no.

That is bad news for organized labor, and for the Democratic Party that relies on organized labor for support, organization, and fundraising.  It has the potential breaking the backbone of the Democratic Party in WI, and of being copied elsewhere.

It shows a change in public attitudes toward unions to a more negative one, especially toward public sector unions.

Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #494 on: August 10, 2011, 01:38:38 am »
Ignore

A bunch of Republican incumbents winning in Republican districts is a stunning endorsement of Walker's policies? As noted Walker's anti-union law would not pass in the new Senate makeup due to the Republican who opposed it.

Let's see how Walker's approvals are in the next poll.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9114
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #495 on: August 10, 2011, 01:43:27 am »
Ignore

I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.

Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #496 on: August 10, 2011, 01:46:12 am »
Ignore

I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.

I think I'm just going to put him on ignore rather than risk a surge of anger resulting in a relapse to old BRTD.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2264
View Profile
« Reply #497 on: August 10, 2011, 01:47:45 am »
Ignore

A bunch of Republican incumbents winning in Republican districts is a stunning endorsement of Walker's policies? As noted Walker's anti-union law would not pass in the new Senate makeup due to the Republican who opposed it.

Which is irrelevant given the bill has already passed.

Quote
Let's see how Walker's approvals are in the next poll.
Logged

The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed.
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14169


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #498 on: August 10, 2011, 01:50:07 am »
Ignore

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #499 on: August 10, 2011, 01:54:11 am »
Ignore

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

I was going to make a new post pointing that out, but as I stated earlier, that's like screaming at your house to change its color instead of getting it painted.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 30 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines