Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Governor Scott]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!

I suppose you have a point.  I knew we would hear about this night all month long, regardless of the outcome.  Still, I do have some concerns about 2012.

[BigSkyBob]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!

I read organized labor spent 33 million dollars to win two seats, one of which they would have claimed in one year.

[Meeker]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Yes. That's correct. Thank you for proving my point.

[BigSkyBob]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Umm... thank you for proving my point? Do you even understand what I just said?

I'm just noting how close it came to being a humilating defeat for the Democrats in general, and organized labor in particular. Molly Yard once said, "Take our rights! Lose your job!," or some such thing. That was a clear threat of political retribution. "Take our rights! Almost lose your job!" doesn't quite seem as threatening. [Yard  wasn't really able to follow through either.]

Tonight simply wasn't about individual races with individual dynamics. It was about whether, or not, organized labor could follow through on a threat.


Very mixed result.

[Meeker]

You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

All this tells us is that Wisconsin is extremely polarized, will continue to be so, the Democrats have found some chinks in Republican armor (mainly with particularly bad or unfitting incumbents, but also in an unexpected place where they came very close to winning), but for some bizarre reason a lot of people just feel really strongly about a narrative that considers CPAs and venture capitalists more pure and hale than teachers and firefighters and farmers and nurses.

[Governor Scott]

I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.

[Governor Scott]

I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.

A valid point.  He'll be the deciding vote on everything, now.

[ZuWo]

As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

[asexual trans victimologist]

As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

Oh, believe me, I'm not.

Not sure where this fits into the survival strategy of the working class in this country, but the point is, I hold out hope that it does somewhere.

[Governor Scott]

As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.

[ZuWo]

As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.

I'm a conservative but I'm not an American so I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Thus, I try to look at the elections as unbiased as possible. Frankly, I expected the Democrats to win more than just two seats, so I would say the results are disappointing for them. Yet, I don't see a reason for the Republicans to rejoice, either. It will be more difficult for them to push through their agenda from now on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

[hawkeye59]

Don't the absentee ballots need to be counted? Especially in the Clark-Olsen race, couldn't that change it?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, how did PPP do?

In District 10, their final poll had a 54-42 lead for Harsdorf (Harsdorf +12). Harsdorf ended up winning 58-42 (Harsdorf +16). Off by 4 in the Democrat's favor.

In District 14, their final poll had a 50-47 lead for Luther Olsen (Olsen +3). Olsen ended up winning 52-48 (Olsen +4). Off by 1 in the Republican's favor.

In District 18, their final poll had a 49-48 lead for Randy Hopper (Hopper +1). King ended up winning 51-49 (King +2). Off by 3 in the Republican's favor.

In District 32, their final poll had a 54-43 lead for Shilling (Shilling +11). Shilling ended up winning 55-45 (Shilling +10). Off by 1 in the Democrat's favor.

All in all, pretty decent performance, considering they were polling a special election for the state legislature.

[Gravis Marketing]

I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

Yep. I think this is good enough. It shows we're not heading back to 2006/2008 any time soon (which anyone should have recognized) but 2010 is receding in the rear view mirror.

[krazen1211]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

[Gravis Marketing]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

[MasterJedi]

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

Except everything I saw was about 10-1 against her, almost everything on TV and the annoying youtube ads were how she "voted to cut medicare, etc, etc". Plus the district took forever to be counted, another reason why it took so long to call it for her.

Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Repubs are likely to win back Hoper's seat when that seat is up with someone who doesn't have a scandel since the district was made even more Republican.

[Invisible Obama]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Not with Crazy Kim Simac you won't. She doesn't pay taxes, avoids debates and thinks schools are run by Nazi's, while that's an ideal candidate to most right-wingers, it's not exactly a fit for a marginal seat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Oh, yeah. The voters were so sick of it that they turned out in record numbers in some precincts.

You may need some of those when you finish spinning.

[J. J.]

I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.

This was suppose to be a win of 3-5 seats, according to the start of this thread.  I'm wondering about next week.

I mean, if the Democrats didn't think there was a good chance of flipping the WI Senate, why go to all this trouble?

[krazen1211]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Edit: 57% it seems.