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| | |-+  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 44479 times)
Scott
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« Reply #500 on: August 10, 2011, 01:56:58 am »
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Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!
I suppose you have a point.  I knew we would hear about this night all month long, regardless of the outcome.  Still, I do have some concerns about 2012.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #501 on: August 10, 2011, 02:02:54 am »
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Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."



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J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!

I read organized labor spent 33 million dollars to win two seats, one of which they would have claimed in one year.
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Meeker
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« Reply #502 on: August 10, 2011, 02:04:42 am »
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Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Yes. That's correct. Thank you for proving my point.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2011, 02:10:42 am by Meeker »Logged
BigSkyBob
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« Reply #503 on: August 10, 2011, 02:15:56 am »
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Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Umm... thank you for proving my point? Do you even understand what I just said?

I'm just noting how close it came to being a humilating defeat for the Democrats in general, and organized labor in particular. Molly Yard once said, "Take our rights! Lose your job!," or some such thing. That was a clear threat of political retribution. "Take our rights! Almost lose your job!" doesn't quite seem as threatening. [Yard  wasn't really able to follow through either.]

Tonight simply wasn't about individual races with individual dynamics. It was about whether, or not, organized labor could follow through on a threat.


Very mixed result.
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« Reply #504 on: August 10, 2011, 02:20:36 am »
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You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.
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« Reply #505 on: August 10, 2011, 02:53:28 am »
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I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

All this tells us is that Wisconsin is extremely polarized, will continue to be so, the Democrats have found some chinks in Republican armor (mainly with particularly bad or unfitting incumbents, but also in an unexpected place where they came very close to winning), but for some bizarre reason a lot of people just feel really strongly about a narrative that considers CPAs and venture capitalists more pure and hale than teachers and firefighters and farmers and nurses.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2011, 02:57:26 am by Nathan »Logged

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« Reply #506 on: August 10, 2011, 02:59:19 am »
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I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.
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Nathan
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« Reply #507 on: August 10, 2011, 03:03:46 am »
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I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.
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His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

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Scott
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« Reply #508 on: August 10, 2011, 03:14:19 am »
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I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.
A valid point.  He'll be the deciding vote on everything, now.
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« Reply #509 on: August 10, 2011, 03:39:25 am »
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As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.
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Nathan
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« Reply #510 on: August 10, 2011, 03:52:49 am »
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As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

Oh, believe me, I'm not.

Not sure where this fits into the survival strategy of the working class in this country, but the point is, I hold out hope that it does somewhere.
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His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

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Scott
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« Reply #511 on: August 10, 2011, 04:00:05 am »
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As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.
Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.
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« Reply #512 on: August 10, 2011, 04:09:45 am »
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As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.
Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.

I'm a conservative but I'm not an American so I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Thus, I try to look at the elections as unbiased as possible. Frankly, I expected the Democrats to win more than just two seats, so I would say the results are disappointing for them. Yet, I don't see a reason for the Republicans to rejoice, either. It will be more difficult for them to push through their agenda from now on.
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« Reply #513 on: August 10, 2011, 04:22:11 am »
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Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?
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« Reply #514 on: August 10, 2011, 06:36:57 am »
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Don't the absentee ballots need to be counted? Especially in the Clark-Olsen race, couldn't that change it?
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« Reply #515 on: August 10, 2011, 07:07:30 am »
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I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.
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« Reply #516 on: August 10, 2011, 07:12:58 am »
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So, how did PPP do?

In District 10, their final poll had a 54-42 lead for Harsdorf (Harsdorf +12). Harsdorf ended up winning 58-42 (Harsdorf +16). Off by 4 in the Democrat's favor.

In District 14, their final poll had a 50-47 lead for Luther Olsen (Olsen +3). Olsen ended up winning 52-48 (Olsen +4). Off by 1 in the Republican's favor.

In District 18, their final poll had a 49-48 lead for Randy Hopper (Hopper +1). King ended up winning 51-49 (King +2). Off by 3 in the Republican's favor.

In District 32, their final poll had a 54-43 lead for Shilling (Shilling +11). Shilling ended up winning 55-45 (Shilling +10). Off by 1 in the Democrat's favor.

All in all, pretty decent performance, considering they were polling a special election for the state legislature.
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« Reply #517 on: August 10, 2011, 09:04:17 am »
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I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

Yep. I think this is good enough. It shows we're not heading back to 2006/2008 any time soon (which anyone should have recognized) but 2010 is receding in the rear view mirror.
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« Reply #518 on: August 10, 2011, 09:07:46 am »
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Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!
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« Reply #519 on: August 10, 2011, 09:22:36 am »
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Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.
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« Reply #520 on: August 10, 2011, 09:24:25 am »
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I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

Except everything I saw was about 10-1 against her, almost everything on TV and the annoying youtube ads were how she "voted to cut medicare, etc, etc". Plus the district took forever to be counted, another reason why it took so long to call it for her.



Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.


Repubs are likely to win back Hoper's seat when that seat is up with someone who doesn't have a scandel since the district was made even more Republican.
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« Reply #521 on: August 10, 2011, 09:25:17 am »
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Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Not with Crazy Kim Simac you won't. She doesn't pay taxes, avoids debates and thinks schools are run by Nazi's, while that's an ideal candidate to most right-wingers, it's not exactly a fit for a marginal seat.
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« Reply #522 on: August 10, 2011, 09:29:22 am »
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Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Oh, yeah. The voters were so sick of it that they turned out in record numbers in some precincts.

You may need some of those when you finish spinning.

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« Reply #523 on: August 10, 2011, 09:34:12 am »
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I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.



This was suppose to be a win of 3-5 seats, according to the start of this thread.  I'm wondering about next week.

I mean, if the Democrats didn't think there was a good chance of flipping the WI Senate, why go to all this trouble?
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« Reply #524 on: August 10, 2011, 09:35:02 am »
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Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Edit: 57% it seems.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2011, 09:38:12 am by krazen1211 »Logged
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