Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Gravis Marketing]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

[Gravis Marketing]

Does any other Democrat feel kind of relieved about this result because at least it meant that Walker ramming through all that legislation before the recalls didn't result in laws passing that wouldn't have passed anyway? I feel better about that.

[hawkeye59]

Well, it's not that bad, because
A. We still have Dale Schulz
B. We will recall Walker next year
C. We will recall other senators next year.

[Gravis Marketing]

Well, it's not that bad, because
B. We will recall Walker next year

You think? Between this and the Prosser result, I wouldn't think that Walker could be successfully recalled. There may be benefit in trying and putting him through that, but I expect he'd be reelected by a narrow margin.

[krazen1211]

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

Certainly less, but so was Randy Hopper.

In the last year, the bulk of candidates that really tick off the left in districts like this have lost. However, some have won.

Per the OP this district is more Republican than Hopper's district and about equal to Olsen's district.

We shall see!

[Talleyrand]

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

Certainly less, but so was Randy Hopper.

In the last year, the bulk of candidates that really tick off the left in districts like this have lost. However, some have won.

Per the OP this district is more Republican than Hopper's district and about equal to Olsen's district.

We shall see!

In terms of presidential results it is more blue than all of them except Kapanke's. (53% Obama)
But as you said, we will wait and see.

[rob in cal]

Is it reasonable to assume that without Hoppers scandal he would have retained his seat.  If so, than last night would have been very disappointing for Dems.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

I must give credit to Walker. Those photo ID laws and other voting restraining laws made a difference. Instead of stopping his agenda it will only be slowed down by a bunch. He is still being recalled next year though. I hope his challenger is Feingold.

Also that State Senator that voted against Walker's union busting bill is the reason Fitzgerald remains the majority leader there. Him also being recalled would had handed the Dems the majority.

[Former Moderate]

Well, it's not that bad, because
B. We will recall Walker next year

You think? Between this and the Prosser result, I wouldn't think that Walker could be successfully recalled. There may be benefit in trying and putting him through that, but I expect he'd be reelected by a narrow margin.

Given this result, it seems that Walker would survive a recall. That's just my opinion, of course, but it seems like the numbers point to him  being favored.

I doubt any of the subsequent recalls will go anywhere either.

(Wisconsin should consider changing their recall laws, in any case.)

[Landslide Lyndon]

(Wisconsin should consider changing their recall laws, in any case.)

Why so timid?
They should just abolish the legislature and install Walker as Governor for Life, governing by decree.
The voters vindicated him after all.

[TJ in Wisco]

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

The main reason why it took so long to call this race was that only Washington County had fully reported its results for quite a while and a large portion of Milwaukee County was still unreported. It remained unreported even until after the AP called the race, though once almost every precinct in the other counties came in (including all of Waukesha, the outstanding precincts when this was called were 12 in Milwaukee and 2 in Ozaukee). The AP waited until it became clear that it was impossible for Pasch to make up the vote difference based on the outstanding Milwaukee precincts. They called it exactly when I did.

However, the insinuation from the Democrats here is that Waukesha County was the reason it took so long when 10/11 precincts in Waukesha County reported about an hour before it was called and Milwaukee was missing 12 precincts for about two hours. I know the Wisconsin Democrats are going to allege vote tampering in Waukesha County, but the numbers don’t really support it (turnout and the margin were pretty similar to Washington and Ozaukee Counties) and unless they know something I don’t, these allegations are nothing more than a hollow attempt to destroy the credibility of our Democratic process.

[Invisible Obama]

I have to repeat again that the districts retained are more Republican than the state of Wisconsin on average and are all places Walker won anyway. He could perform well in all these districts in a recall and still lose. On a statewide level, it's not like Democratic and swing areas aren't going to play a role, there wasn't enough of that sort of territory in play for most of the recalls to be successful. It's a completely different ball game.

[Talleyrand]

Republican recruiting failures will probably keep Holperin and Wirch in office. State Rep. Samantha Kerkman could have made the Wirch seat competitive. She is just 37 and is a rising star, but maybe she didn't think she could win in the Dem district.

ALL 3 of Holperin's district's assembly seats are in GOP hands, but surprisingly, none of them challenged him. Holperin's pretty moderate, has a horrible opponent, and has been through a recall before (1990, when he was in the assembly), but the political composition of the district will still keep it competitive.

[Torie]

Darling won by 54% by the way, by 5,400 votes. Those remaining precincts in Milwaukee county were about a wash.  We would have known the result last night about 11 pm central time or thereabouts if only we had known where those missing precincts were from. Milwaukee county election reporting sucks.  

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

[krazen1211]

I must give credit to Walker. Those photo ID laws and other voting restraining laws made a difference. Instead of stopping his agenda it will only be slowed down by a bunch. He is still being recalled next year though. I hope his challenger is Feingold.

Also that State Senator that voted against Walker's union busting bill is the reason Fitzgerald remains the majority leader there. Him also being recalled would had handed the Dems the majority.

The photo ID laws that are not in effect yet, and the senator that is not eligible for a recall?

Amusing!

[krazen1211]

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

That is not so much a function of gerrymandering as it is a function of the extreme underpopulation of the 4 Democratic held Milwaukee districts.

[MasterJedi]

Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Oh, yeah. The voters were so sick of it that they turned out in record numbers in some precincts.

Voter turnout =/= voter opinion. I live here, people are sick of it, but they'll still turn out to the polls to vote for since they want their opinion to be heard. But I guess I'll bend to your opinion since you live in Greece and I only live in WI!

What I write below is in general, hence the line, so I'm not just saying it to you, so you can settle lol.


But seriously, Hopper's district was made more Republican and he likely would have run this time around too if he didn't have his own scandel.

The other big thing was there was almost nothing said about collective bargaining the whole damn campaign, it was all about how the Republican Senators was trying to take away everyone's medicare

[BigSkyBob]

I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.

Didn't you mean to say, "Republican incumbents...can still hold Obama districts?"

Wasn't that the meme right up until the night the Democratic nominees lost?

2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

[So the Heroes Fall]

As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

I don't think any Democrats are acting that way.

The point is more that this doesn't prove anything beyond that non-scandal plagued Republican incumbents can win in Republican districts. Not that the public wants to carry out a mass lynching of public sector employees.

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

Wisconsin is too fluid, nothing can shield against a Dem wave there, just look at the swing from 2004 to 2008. The inverse is true too of course if there was a Dem gerrymander.

[BigSkyBob]

You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.

Oh, I know what your point was, and, I know the biggest issue on election night is whether, or not, organized labor can inflict retribution, or not.

[MilesC56]

I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.

Didn't you mean to say, "Republican incumbents...can still hold Obama districts?"

Wasn't that the meme right up until the night the Democratic nominees lost?

No, the districts still had Republican PVI's.

Except Kapanke's.

[Vasall des Midas]

Two seats flipping was really the over/under here. Losing but one would have been a Republican moral victory, three (obviously) a major victory for Democrats.

Oh yeah, only thing remotely surprising is Harsdorf's margin. About the final results that is, maybe there's more in a county breakdown.

[Governor Scott]

Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Voter turnout =/= voter opinion. I live here, people are sick of it, but they'll still turn out to the polls to vote for since they want their opinion to be heard. But I guess I'll bend to your opinion since you live in Greece and I only live in WI!

So it is Republicans who are sick of the process. Thanks for the clarification.

And no, being from Wisconsin sadly doesn't make your opinion the Absolute Truth.

[Torie]

Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging.

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.