Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Lief]

I had expected the Republicans to pick up both seats, with comfortable margins of victory. The fact that they did not should be very worrying. These Democratic victories have the potential to ensure that no Republican ever wins an election in the United States ever again.

The results tonight may typify a changing attitude in the United States and indeed the Western world. They are not good news for the Republicans or conservatives, short term, and in the long term, may spell the beginning of the end for free market capitalism.

[Tender Branson]

With Florence having another 1400 votes (55% for the Republican), the total result won't change. Holperin will win with about 30500 votes to 24800 votes, or 55.2%

[Landslide Lyndon]

These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.

He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.

You can't be a real person.

Being a real person won't help you with the girls.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

[Meeker]

Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen

[Tender Branson]

Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen

If we allocate the undecideds in both races, the polls become even more accurate. More Republicans than Democrats were undecided in the PPP polls, so we can assume that they broke slightly more in favor of the Republican candidates. If allocated, the PPP polls were within about 2% of the final results. I´m already waiting for CARLHAYDEN to tell us once again that PPP is the new R2K ...

[Seattle]

Comparing to 2008, I'm really surprised with Lincoln county's results. It went 49% for Holperin last time, but 60% this time, what's with the huge shift?

[Invisible Obama]

Kim Simac is way over the top and made poor candidate for a marginal seat, so that's the reason for the shift.

[J. J.]

These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.

He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.

You can't be a real person.

I'm real.  You're just a liberal and can't tell the difference.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go again...

[ModerateCoward]

Comparing to 2008, I'm really surprised with Lincoln county's results. It went 49% for Holperin last time, but 60% this time, what's with the huge shift?

This is completely off-topic, but this guy got a variation of my name.

[Gass3268]

My guess is that the Democrats will be able to take the Senate with these recalls, yet only by a small margin. 3 of the 4 biggest targets defeated incumbents in 2010 which means there could be some buyers remorse. This is in comparison to most of the previous recalled candidates that were in a location of strength due to surviving the Obama wave.   

Van Wanggaard's district is centered in Racine, while while more conservative then the near by and often compared Kenosha district, is definitely a leaner to the left. If the Dems take any seats, it would be this one. Also while Terry Moulton in the Chippewa Falls area and Pam Galloway in the Wausau area could be good targets, but they represent a more mixed political district. The interesting race to look at if it were to occur would be Dale Schultz, who represents the Southwestern part of the state. This area of the state is traditionally more favorable to the Democrats and it swung back to that side during the 2011 Supreme Court election after going for Walker in 2010. Schultz is popular in his district and was seen as one of the few moderates for the Republicans during the special session in early 2011. Yet he did vote for all of the Republican legislation, so it is possible that opinion could have changed in his districts.

Also there will probably be attempts to recall representatives in the assembly, as there are many districts that normally vote in Democrats (Janesville and Beloit) that are currently represented by Republicans. Lastly, as expected, you'll see the Scott Walker recall which as of know looks like it could happen as poll numbers have been not been good for him, but things can obviously change here.

[Gass3268]

After quickly looking over the election results from 2010 and the district maps for Wisconsin, here are the Assembly Districts that I think a recall election could possibly take place in:

District 26 – Sheboygan
District 28 – Amery
District 43 – Edgerton, Milton, Whitewater
District 44 – Janesville
District 45 – Beloit
District 49 – Boscobel, Platteville
District 51 – Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Sauk City/Prairie Du Sauk
District 68 – Northern Eau Claire
District 72 – Wisconsin Rapids
District 75 – Rice Lake
District 93 – Southern Eau Claire

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Back again; Republican Sen. Terry Moulton is facing a recall. Organizers say they have 59% of the signatures needed to recall him.

It looks like there are also active recall campaigns against Scott Fitzgerald, Van Wanggard, and Pam Galloway, all Republicans. Except for Fitzgerald, they were all first elected in 2010.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They've got enough signatures to recall Wanggard. Sounds like the Galloway and Moulton recalls are on track to succeed, not sure about the Fitzgerald one though.

[Jbrase]

I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

And Republicans need to know that votes have consequences too. 

[Keystone Phil]

I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

And Republicans need to know that votes have consequences too.  

Yeah, ok. Then deliver the consequences at a regularly scheduled election. This never-ending legislative recall process has gotten very old and totally out of hand.

[Invisible Obama]

The moral of the story is, you don't overreach just because you have total control of the government. If Republicans don't like it, they should have thought twice about pulling the plug on collective bargaining. Recalls are approved by voter signatures and clearly enough voters are on board in many districts. That's how the process works.

[Keystone Phil]

The moral of the story is, you don't overreach just because you have total control of the government. If Republicans don't like it, they should have thought twice about pulling the plug on collective bargaining. Recalls are approved by voter signatures and clearly enough voters are on board in many districts. That's how the process works.

I understand that that's the process. That doesn't mean that I can't think that the process is totally ridiculous.

[Χahar]

I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

So they should just stand and do nothing while the capitalists destroy the livelihoods of the people?

[Jbrase]

I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

So they should just stand and do nothing while the capitalists destroy the livelihoods of the people?

That isn't exactly a fair characterization of what happened. Did public sector unions lose power? Of course. But that hardly warrants wasting state money in an never ending series of elections just to give the butt hurt Dems control again. The last round of recalls plus that race for the court seat proved that while yes, some people are rather pissed, by no means is it a vast majority of the state that wants all this nonsense.

I don't particularly care much for Walker, but I will be very much amused watching the Dem's  as they have to explain to the voters why they forced the state to waste money that could have been spent on other more beneficial things, in a failed effort to recall the Governor. But I guess on the bright side the state will have a little bit more money to throw away with the savings from that bill.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like all four Republican recalls are going ahead, they've got enough signatures for them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some Dem candidates running:

SD-21 (Van Wanggard) - ex-State Sen. John Lehman
SD-23 (Terry Moulton) - ex-State Rep. Kristin Dexter
SD-29 (Pam Galloway) - State Rep. Donna Seidel

[Senator X]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074977/-Wisconsin-state-Sen-Pam-Galloway-R-facing-recall-will-resign