Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats are better off if Darling wins in SD-08, since that seat is made unwinnable for Democrats in redistricting.  If Pasch wins, she will only be there for 15 months. 

[Mr.Phips]

Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate. Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.

Kapanke's district is heavily Democratic.  Even John Kerry won there by a pretty solid margin and he only beat a nobody opponent in 2008 by three points. 

[Mr.Phips]

The antics on Wall Street today seems likely to help the GOP hold onto the Wisconsin Senate.  I think enough folks who blame Obama for the mess and are convinced we are overspending will be motivated to get out and vote.  Not that the Wisconsin State Senate has any remote say in our national fiscal policy, but the timing couldn't have been worse for Badger Democrats.

I would think that the antics on Wall Street would make people want to vote out incumbents. 

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like in SD-08 they are waiting to see how much Darling needs out of the suburbs.  

[Mr.Phips]

King should win in SD-18.  All of Fon Du Loc is reported and Hopper is only up by 500 votes.  King will make that up in Winnebago.  

[Mr.Phips]

If the final precincts in SD-08 vote the way the counted precincts vote, Darling stands to pick up a net of just 26 votes.  If Darling mysteriously pulls into the lead, if I were Pasch, I would seriously talk to my lawyers as soon as possible.  

[Mr.Phips]

Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging.

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

[Mr.Phips]

Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging.

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

No, but what I am saying is that if he is due to the weakness of the Pubbie candidate, his party isn't going to get more than about half the vote, and his party will run behind him if Obama runs ahead of the Pubbie by some real margin, like last time or close to it.

Maybe 30 years ago, but now with straight ticket voting, I am willing to bet that Democrats will get the exact same percentage of the vote as Obama. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points.  

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November.  

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.

Not to mention that Doyle won it by 17 in 2006 in the fairly close(53%-45%) governors race that year.  

Feingold won it by 18 in 2004 when he was winning by 11 statewide.

This is at least a D+5 district and if you include the 2008 and 2004 Presidential results, its D+7.  There are currently no Republicans representing districts this blue at the House level, especially as far to the right as Kapanke.  This would be like Nancy Pelosi representing a R+7 district like IN-09.