Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like we're up for more recalls in 2012.

2011 recall information

These districts are having recall elections:

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57-42 Bush, 52-46 Obama, 58-42 Prosser
opponent: ex-Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum (D)

Result: 60-40 Cowles.

District 8 (Alberta Darling - R) - 53-46 Bush, 51-47 Obama, 59-41 Prosser
opponent: State Rep. Sandy Pasch (D)

Result: 54-46 Darling.

District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 51-48 Bush, 50-48 Obama, 51-49 Kloppenburg
opponent: laid-off teacher Shelly Moore (D)

Result: 58-42 Harsdorf.

District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 53-46 Bush, 53-46 Obama, 55-45 Prosser
opponent: recall organizer Kim Simac (R)

Result: 55-45 Holperin.

District 14 (Luther Olsen - R) - 56-43 Bush, 52-47 Obama, 55-45 Prosser
opponent: State Rep. Fred Clark (D)

Result: 52-48 Olsen.

District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 57-42 Bush, 51-47 Obama, 53-47 Prosser
opponent: Oshkosh Deputy Mayor / '08 candidate Jessica King (D)

Result: 51-49 King -- recalled.

District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51-48 Kerry, 57-41 Obama, 51-49 Kloppenburg
opponent: attorney Jonathan Steitz (R)

Result: 58-42 Wirch.

District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 52-47 Bush, 56-42 Obama, 52-48 Prosser
opponent: recall organizer David VanderLeest (R)

Result: 66-34 Hansen.

District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 53-46 Kerry, 61-38 Obama, 58-42 Kloppenburg
opponent: State Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D)

Result: 55-45 Shilling - recalled.

Primary elections for the six Republican recalls were held on July 12 (all the fake Democrats lost), with a general on August 9.

Primary elections for Holperin and Wirch Democratic recalls were held on July 19, with a general on August 16. The general for Hansen was on July 19.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are the results of the Kos/PPP polls:

Democrat 55
Dan Kapanke 41

Democrat 49
Randy Hopper 44

Democrat 49
Luther Olsen 47

Rob Cowles 45
Democrat 43

Sheila Harsdorf 48
Democrat 44

Alberta Darling 52
Democrat 44

Mary Lazich 56
Democrat 34

Glenn Grothman 60
Democrat 32

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd be wary of anything other than a clear lead for "generic Democrat". Kapanke does look doomed, and Hopper is in quite a bit of trouble as well. Beyond that I wouldn't count any of them as being in the bank for the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Senator Hopper's mistress got a job with the state of Wisconsin last month. Coincidence?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Someone posted a tweet on SSP saying that they have enough signatures to recall Randy Hopper now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems are saying they have the signatures to recall Kapanke as well.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kapanke recall signatures filed. They got 22,561 in 29 days (they have 60), while they needed 15,588.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Actually, Hopper's petitions are the second to be filed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dan Kapanke has an opponent, State Rep. Jennifer Shilling.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Randy Hopper's 2008 opponent is running in the recall election. He only won by 263 votes last time, but of course, Obama was a big lift for the Democratic ticket in Wisconsin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Precinct data for the Supreme Court election is out (except for Milwaukee, Sauk, and one other county), and I've been trying to figure out the results by Senate district for the recall eligible Senators. Here's what I've gotten so far:

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57.9% Prosser
District 4 (Lena Taylor - D) - 73.4% Kloppenburg
District 6 (Spencer Coggs - D) - 77.5% Kloppenburg
District 8 (Alberta Darling - R) - 58.8% Prosser
District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 50.5% Prosser
District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 55.4% Prosser
District 14 (Luther Olsen - R) - 54.7% Prosser
District 16 (Mark Miller - D) - 69.8% Kloppenburg
District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 52.8% Prosser
District 20 (Glenn Grothman - R) - 74.3% Prosser
District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51.2% Kloppenburg
District 24 (Julie Lassa - D) - 54.9% Kloppenburg
District 26 (Fred Risser - D) - 82.4% Kloppenburg
District 28 (Mary Lazich - R) - 69.6% Prosser
District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 50.01% Kloppenburg (no kidding, a 7-vote margin)
District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 57.7% Kloppenburg

I make no claim as to the veracity of these numbers, because the ward reporting is kind of screwy for a lot of the larger towns in the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They finally got Milwaukee up, so I finished the results from the Supreme Court race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Petitions to recall Olson to be filed today. 14,733 signatures required, 23,000 reportedly to be filed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I made a few mistakes in my district calculations, mostly thanks to the screwed-up formatting of the results posted by the GAB:

The 10th actually went for Kloppenburg with 51.3%, not Prosser with 50.5%.
The 16th went for Kloppenburg with 66.7%, not 69.8%.
The 30th went for Prosser with 52.2%, not Kloppenburg by a hair.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alberta Darling makes five Republicans facing recalls.

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall.

Is he the one from the ~55% Walker district?

Probably. It went about 55% for Prosser.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Funny none of the anti dem petitions have been filed yet but they say they have the needed signatures.

Uh, actually they filed three today. Hansen, Holperin, and Wirch. Darling also got filed today.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Luther Olson has an opponent, State Rep. Fred Clark.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This week is the deadline for some of the outstanding recall petitions against Democratic Senators. Lena Taylor and Fred Risser on Monday, Spencer Coggs and Mark Miller (note that he has two active, one that's not due until May 4) on Tuesday. My guess is none of them succeed, since they're all in safe districts, and the Republicans haven't had as much success getting these petitions done as the Democrats have.

The three remaining Republican petitions (Robert Cowles, Glenn Grothman, and Mary Lazich) are due May 2. I haven't heard anything about these, but since they have another week to finish them, I'm guessing at least one will be filed.

There's also one Democratic petition (Julie Lassa) which isn't due until May 16. I'd give it a 50/50 shot of happening.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Taylor and Risser recall efforts have failed, and the group attempting to recall Coggs says they're going to miss the deadline as well. The second link also says the Robert Cowles recall petitions will be filed this week. No word on Mark Miller Petition I.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yep, Coggs and Miller recalls failed. As I said, there's another committee trying to recall Miller, but I don't see how that would end up any differently.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Cowles petitions filed. The remaining two Republicans (Grothman and Lazich) are probably not going to get recalled. The only Dem left is Julie Lassa.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Buried in this article is a bit of information about when the recalls will take place:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

It looks like State Rep. Sandy Pasch is going to run against Darling.

Grothman and Lazich recall efforts failed.