Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Gass3268]

My guess is that the Democrats will be able to take the Senate with these recalls, yet only by a small margin. 3 of the 4 biggest targets defeated incumbents in 2010 which means there could be some buyers remorse. This is in comparison to most of the previous recalled candidates that were in a location of strength due to surviving the Obama wave.   

Van Wanggaard's district is centered in Racine, while while more conservative then the near by and often compared Kenosha district, is definitely a leaner to the left. If the Dems take any seats, it would be this one. Also while Terry Moulton in the Chippewa Falls area and Pam Galloway in the Wausau area could be good targets, but they represent a more mixed political district. The interesting race to look at if it were to occur would be Dale Schultz, who represents the Southwestern part of the state. This area of the state is traditionally more favorable to the Democrats and it swung back to that side during the 2011 Supreme Court election after going for Walker in 2010. Schultz is popular in his district and was seen as one of the few moderates for the Republicans during the special session in early 2011. Yet he did vote for all of the Republican legislation, so it is possible that opinion could have changed in his districts.

Also there will probably be attempts to recall representatives in the assembly, as there are many districts that normally vote in Democrats (Janesville and Beloit) that are currently represented by Republicans. Lastly, as expected, you'll see the Scott Walker recall which as of know looks like it could happen as poll numbers have been not been good for him, but things can obviously change here.

[Gass3268]

After quickly looking over the election results from 2010 and the district maps for Wisconsin, here are the Assembly Districts that I think a recall election could possibly take place in:

District 26 – Sheboygan
District 28 – Amery
District 43 – Edgerton, Milton, Whitewater
District 44 – Janesville
District 45 – Beloit
District 49 – Boscobel, Platteville
District 51 – Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Sauk City/Prairie Du Sauk
District 68 – Northern Eau Claire
District 72 – Wisconsin Rapids
District 75 – Rice Lake
District 93 – Southern Eau Claire

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

[Gass3268]

As a capstone to it all, here one can savor a montage of  MSNBC's "coverage" of election night in Wisconsin.  I just wish one could have Maddow and Hannity in the same room as a reporting "team" of it all. Maybe they should get a room. They have a lot in common.  And then there is that fat guy. Oh dear. From what rock did he slither out from under?

I had the same idea during the 2008 Presidential elections.

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 

1) They just did that in the recall election by electing Jerry Petrowski to the 29th/Wausau seat. My guess is that he'll win by a slightly smaller margin in November.

2) Yup, the 12th is going to be really hard to hold without Senator Holperin.

3) Fond du Lac/Oshkosh seat is probably going to flip back. Jessica King almost did win in 2008, so she seems to be somewhat popular for the district, but at R+7, the 18th will more than likely flip back.

4) I doubt the 32nd/La Cross district will flip back. This is a D+2 district with 2/3rds of the Assembly seats in the district controlled by Dems.

So by January of 2013 the State Senate will probably be 18-15 in favor of the GOP.

[Gass3268]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.