Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Kevinstat]

Could (or could have, if the deadline for new candidates has passed) members of the same party as the recalled Senator (I know technically the Senators are already deemed to be recalled when the recall election is forced) run in the recall election as members of that party and thus force the recalled Senator to face a primary which, if he or she lost, would prevent him or her from even advancing to the general election which would be effectively like a "normal" special (general) election to fill a vacancy, except that the defeated incumbent would presumably remain in office until the results of that general "recall" election had been certified?

In other words, if Kenosha County Board vice chair Fred Ekornaas, the former Kenosha County sheriff who was twice elected to that post as a Democrat and is now running a Republican primary for the right to take on Bob Wirch, had wanted to challenge Wirch in a Democratic primary, could he have?  (I'm sure he would have gone down in flames.  Then again, as a fairly recent Democrat I gather, he might go down in flames in the Republican primary against Jonathan Steitz.)  Otherwise, couldn't Kapanke, Hopper, Harsdorf et all have staved off a Democratic challenge (or forced any would-be Democratic challengers to run as Republicans), or Hoperlin, Hansen and Wirch have staved off a Republican challenge (or forced any would-be Republican challengers) by switching parties?  Could RINOs and DINOs in Wisconsin (there don't seem to be any in the Senate, at least) theoretically be recalled and challenged in the resulting recall election only by (a) member(s) of that Senator's party?  Would the result be a single election that, as a an intra-party or "primary" election, only voters enrolled in the Senator's party could vote in?  (Or does Wisconsin have open primaries?)  Or would the winner of that primary advance to a general election where voters would have the opportunity to write-in someone else (perhaps the loser of that primary, including perhaps a Senator who was just defeated in a recall primary?  It wouldn't make sense to allow all voters to vote in a recall election between candidates of the same party unless Wisconsin has open primaries.

I'll appreciate whatever answers to these questions folks here could provide.

[Kevinstat]

Also, can Independent candidates run in recall elections.  I would assume they could (perhaps with a higher petition requirement as they don't have to face a possible primary and could get signatures from any registered voter in the district), and that they would advance automatically to the general election.  Has there been any talk (or was there at some point in this "Recall-a-palooza" serious speculation about an Independent candidate running for any of these seats.  Wisconsin does not have runoff elections (following either the primary or general election) for state and federal offices, does it?  And there wouldn't be a majority requirement in a primary or general recall election either, right?

[Kevinstat]

Dems are running placeholder candidates in all of the elections so that all will be on the same day, Aug 9th.

Wouldn't that be the case anyway, though (for the seats now held by Republicans), assuming all of the fake Democrats get their petitions validated?

Are Democrats worried that some of the fake Democrats in the safest Republican seats with a recall election will withdraw so the Republicans can claim an early victory or two on July 19?  I don't think that would be that big a deal.

[Kevinstat]

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Full article

[Kevinstat]

While the above article didn't express a Democratic concern about Republicans letting their safest Senators face the music first and get some momentum going for their party, I can read between the lines.

I don't see why they would want to run placeholders in the Kapanke and Hopper seats though.  An early general election in either of those seats would be a gift.  Perhaps they're sure fake Democrats will get on the ballot in those races and the "consistency" angle plays better.

[Kevinstat]

SD-18

King(D): 50%
Hopper(R): 47%

I thought Hopper was doomed, as opposed to trailing but not to be written off.  Maybe he is doomed, I don't know.  What do people think now?

[Kevinstat]

'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?

Given that Republicans somewhat threw away their trifecta here... not as high as they might be.

Has the Governor even signed those plans yet?  I know he signed the one allowing the redistiricting to be done earlier, but I've done a Google search and can't see that he's signed a single redistricting plan.  My guess is he has, or will before the Senate has a chance to meet after Tuesday's elections and recall the bill from the Governor.

[Kevinstat]

Here's the AP results link for tomorrow today.

1st precinct in, in Senate District 2.  Cowles (R-incumbent*) up 33 votes to 2 (94% to 6%)!

*And yes, I know all the Republicans are incumbents in today's recalls.

Darn, sombody beat me to it.  But I have the raw vote totals.

[Kevinstat]

And 1 precinct in in the 14th

Clark 56%
Olsen 44%

But this is nothing yet.

With 2 precincts in:

Clark (D) 152 (52%)
Olson (R) 140 (48%)

[Kevinstat]

Precincts are starting to roll in now.  Only one race (Harsdorf's) with no results yet.  Some results in every race now.  In the others, Kapanke the only Republican trailling, and only by 52% to 48%.  It is still early yet though.

[Kevinstat]

Olsen-Clark race (which I'd heard called the pivitol one) starting to look like a longshot for the Dems.  Olsen up 59% to 41% with 17% in.

[Kevinstat]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

[Kevinstat]

Olsen down to 51% with 29% in.

[Kevinstat]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

From what I've heard, one of them should be (the other shouldn't really and doesn't seem to be) but the Republican nominee has put her foot in her mouth a bit so the Democrat is favored there.

[Kevinstat]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

From what I've heard, one of them should be (the other shouldn't really and doesn't seem to be) but the Republican nominee has put her foot in her mouth a bit so the Democrat is favored there.

[Kevinstat]

I guess, Republicans will hold majority by a whisker: the size of that whisker will be determined by county clerk Nikolaus doing her algebra.

Well, the 36 Milliwakee County precincts in so far gave Pasch a 212-vote margin per precinct, while the 7 precincts in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties gave Darling a slightly higher 241-vote margin per precinct (but lower in Waukesha where there are more precincts left), and exactly half the remaining precincts out (as I decided to start writing this message) are in each group, but Pasch has an 887-vote margin, so I think she might actually have an edge, although I don't know where the outstanding precincts in each county are from.

[Kevinstat]

According to Sykes Darling has an unreported margin of 5000 votes in Waukesha - JS has been sitting on it.

There were only 597 votes cast total in the one of 11 (so one would think about 1/11) precincts in Waukesha, so I find that doubtful.  Of course, that precinct could have been a small township.

[Kevinstat]

With 9 of the 10 outstanding precincts in Waukesha County having come in, Darling now up by 2,628 votes.

[Kevinstat]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the new SD-21 in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.

Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state.  

Until the Senators elected this November are sworn in (for their new terms) all State Senators in Wisconsin were supposed (absent any resignations and/or recalls) to represent the "old" districts.  While the next time the Senate meets will be after half (or just over or just under) of the Senators will have been elected from new districts, the other roughly half of the Senators (if not for this years recalls and that Republican State Senator who resigned) will have begun their still-current term at a time when everybody was representing the old districts.  Wanggard was elected in 2010 from the same district being used in the recall.  I'm glad their were some "Jim Doyle hacks" to prevent an incorrect decision to use the new district boundaries for the recall elections which are recalling people who represent the old districts.

Now I think all State Senators should be up in '2' year elections like in Illinois (unless you have two Senators from each district, each one elected every other even year like in West Virginia, where one Senator will represent each old district and one Senator could represent each new district from the 2012 to 2014 elections), but in the existing case in Wisconsin using the old districts for recalls before November makes more sense.  I'd argue the same even for 2013 recalls and specials in seats where the last regularly scheduled election was in 2010, but it would be more open to interpretation.