Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[AmericanNation]

Since these are "just another election" where anyone can file and challenge the incumbent, can another Republican just declare for Galloway's seat, or does the resignation cancel the recall since Galloway is gone, with Galloway being replaced by a special election?

The GAB says the recall will go on ahead just without her, and yes I am pretty sure any republican can file to run. Though I am not sure how you recall someone who is no longer there... so I wouldn't be shocked if the recall gets cancelled and a special election happens instead.

1) The "recall" election can't "go away" from a resignation
2) you can't "recall" someone who has resigned.
3) you hold a "Special Election" in the event of a resignation
4) You should than hold a "Special Election" on the date (if easier) of the scheduled recall.
5) The Doyle appointed GAB will call this obvious "special election" a "recall" because they have managed to screw up an amazing number of easy things.  There is no real difference though.   

[AmericanNation]

Where are the four districts located and are there any new polls for them?


How has the open seat and Van Wanggarrd's races been progressing this past month and some change?

Van is probably slightly ahead in his Racine county district.

Fitzgerald will cruise easily.

The other two, in north west Wisconsin, I have no idea what is going on.  Maybe lean GOP.

[AmericanNation]

Well this certainly brightens things up just a bit.

Honestly I think this is a pretty good outcome, we moved the goalposts to a Barrett win with that retarded exit poll, when we were actually expecting a narrow loss. The loss was a little more than narrow, but we still managed to block Walker's future agenda despite the amount of money poured into the state.

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

State Senate is likely to go more GOP in November, Wisconsin has one of the most powerful Governorships in the country, and Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

 

[AmericanNation]

Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

The Jim Doyle GAB made this round of recalls occur in districts that no longer exist.  Good luck in actual districts this November.  

Obama will only help (if at all) in solid seats, so that's irrelevant.  

Republicans in congress have obstructed UNpopular measures and it isn't like anything serious has been purposed/pushed by democrats anyway.  Walker is a workhorse and will push his agenda/the state forward -- quite a distinct difference. 

If stuff like the mining bill (wildly popular/important) get's obstructed again, you will see dem state senators punished.  That is why a few Ds will play ball.  Not everyone will keep drinking the kool-aid.     

Nice try.          

[AmericanNation]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the new SD-21 in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.

Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state. 

[AmericanNation]

Ok, so the Dems suffering "backlash" and punishment for their behavior isn't the driving factor.

I said "IF" they "continue" their behavior.  They haven't decided to keep the inmates in charge of the asylum yet.  Adults could appear in the wis-dem party, Walker did offer an olive branch and he is a man of extreme integrity.  That is "one factor", not necessarily the "only/driving factor."   

[AmericanNation]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

[AmericanNation]

Don't forget about the Racine seat the Democrats just took this week. Under the new map it looses the city Racine to SD-22 and picks up the rural parts of SD-22. That should be a very safe Republican pick-up.

I think it's up in 2014.

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 

[AmericanNation]

Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

This is probably a textbook case of vote fraud.  What can you do about it?  Try to get convictions on a few people, write a report proving the massive vote fraud, and than in the end democrats will claim nothing ever happened. 

[AmericanNation]

1)Originally we were talking about the State Senate district, not the US House district.
2)Both districts have been redrawn, which might have some importance.