Which of the following GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?
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  Which of the following GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?
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Poll
Question: Which of the following rust-belt GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?
#1
Tom Corbett (PA)
 
#2
Rick Snyder (MI)
 
#3
Terry Branstad (IA)
 
#4
John Kasich (OH)
 
#5
Scott Walker (WI)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Which of the following GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?  (Read 3067 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #25 on: March 18, 2011, 09:20:57 PM »

We have a long ways to go, so I wouldn't say any of them are out of it. At this point, I'd say Branstead, Corbett, and Snyder would all be favored to win reelection, but my pick for now is Snyder.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2011, 10:02:01 AM »

Snyder?? His popularity is dropping like a rock. Polls show he'd lose an election today to the guy he trounced less than 6 months ago by nearly 20 points. He had better pull off a political bungee jumping performance of epic performance--and initial indications are his utterly confrontational "screw everyone" style contrasts "just slightly" with his "I'm just a nerd" campaign image, and doesn't portend a soft landing.
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California8429
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« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2011, 10:21:32 PM »

# 1 is Snyder or Branstead

Corbett is also pretty safe I'd say.

The rest luckily have 3-4 years to becomed loved, hey just look at Mitch Daniels, his approval once went from the 30s to past the 70s
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #28 on: March 24, 2011, 12:05:35 PM »

# 1 is Snyder or Branstead

Corbett is also pretty safe I'd say.

The rest luckily have 3-4 years to becomed loved, hey just look at Mitch Daniels, his approval once went from the 30s to past the 70s

Kasich, Walker, and Snyder are probably screwed.  As someone who actually lives in Ohio, in Kasich's former district no less, let me assure you that the anger at Kasich and Ohio Republicans is not the temporary variety.  People are really, really, really pissed off, but in a "no matter what you do, you will never get my vote" sort of way (sort of like how angry Ohio voters were in 2006).  It's not just Democrats who are pissed either.  Independents have revolted against the Ohio Republican party.  I've even talked to several McCain voters who voted straight-ticket Republican in 2010 who are saying that they will vote straight ticket Democratic no matter what when Kasich is up for reelection (one of these them said that the only way he'd vote for Kasich was if the Democrats nominated Kucinich).  Before someone says that Bob Taft was unpopular, 2002 was a Republican year, Taft was not even remotely near the height of his unpopularity, and the whole Ohio Democratic ticket that year was pretty weak.  The fact that Drew Carrey does better in polling against Sherrod Brown than people such as Husted, Mandel, and Taylor speaks volumes about how Ohio voters view the Ohio Republican party.  The Democrats still have a surprisingly solid statewide bench left.  The early success of the recall efforts in Wisconsin suggest that this is probably also the case there.  In Michigan, Snyder's unpopularity, the fact that Democrats are rumored to be planning a recall effort against Republicans in the State House and State Senate, and the way that Snyder has completely destroyed his brand mean that he is as done as he can be this early into his term.  There is really no reason to say Corbett is safe, that race is probably the least clear of the five.  Although I don't think Branstead is safe by any means (haven't seen approval rating, he's pursuing a pretty right-wing agenda), I suspect that he would still be favored at this point.  However, I could see him losing should Iowa voters react to his agenda the way voters in the rest of the Midwest have to similar agendas.  Another governor trying to pass an anti-union/anti-public employee bill is Paul LePage.  I haven't seen polling and I don't know as much about Maine politics as the Midwest and Pennsylvania, but I suspect that LePage is a political dead man walking (then again his governing style and far-right views made me think this a while ago).  I know you shouldn't write off people like that, but it's Maine and LePage is...well...LePage.  With regard to Mitch Daniels, it is important to remember several things.  First he was never part of the tea-party crowd the way Kasich, Walker, LePage, and (though not until he was elected) Snyder have been/are.  Additionally, Indiana is a far more Republican state with a significantly weaker Democratic bench (especially in 2008) than Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, or Wisconsin.  Obviously nothing can be said with too much certainty because of how far off the midterms are, but if I was forced to make a prediction, this would be it.
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