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| | |-+  Which of the following GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?
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Question: Which of the following rust-belt GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?
Tom Corbett (PA)   -10 (23.3%)
Rick Snyder (MI)   -16 (37.2%)
Terry Branstad (IA)   -15 (34.9%)
John Kasich (OH)   -1 (2.3%)
Scott Walker (WI)   -1 (2.3%)
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Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Which of the following GOP governors is most likely to be re-elected in 2014?  (Read 2147 times)
Mississippi Political Freak
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« on: March 15, 2011, 09:28:14 pm »
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Hi!  The above governors are all elected along the rust belt (maybe except Iowa) during 2010's historic GOP wave.  I'm gathering you guys' opinion on who among them will be most likely get re-elected.  IMHO, I would say Gov. Snyder is the best bet, as the measures he has proposed to bridge his state's budget gaps has been less confrontational so far, and he has projected a image as a results-oriented moderate who can act bipartisan at times (He even appointed the outgoing Democratic State House Speaker, albeit a business-friendly one, as his State Treasurer).   

Gov. Corbett is a close second bet for me, as he has been rather low-key and non confrontational so far.  The same could be said for Gov. Branstad, although he faces a major difficulty in a divided legislature; where the GOP-controlled state House is aggressively pursuing a host of red-meat measures which would almost stand no chance from the Democrat-held state Senate.

From the developments so-far, Gov. Kasich and Walker are becoming fairly unpopular after ramming through measures curbing the influences of public sector unions.  Although it's a real long way to predict their re-election prospects, I would say both are underdogs unless improvements in their states' economies give them some redemption.

What's you choice from the above list?  Opinions and discussions are always welcome!
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2011, 09:44:01 pm »
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It would be wise to remember that Christie went from being disapproved of by 2-1 (although the poll is questioned there is no doubt that he was very unpopular at one point) to being approved of by a range of about 10 to 15 points in just one year. Daniels was DOA in 2008 as late as 2007 with Approvals in the range of Ernie Fletcher and Matt Blunt (both of whom are now gone).

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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2011, 09:46:56 pm »
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I'd say that Snyder, Corbet and Branstad are strongly favored at this point.  Based on his past electoral history, even after contentious and unpopular decisions, I'd say Walker can probably recover. The one I am least sure of is Kasich.
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2011, 10:35:47 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2011, 01:18:46 am »
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Tom Corbett.
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2011, 03:28:36 am »
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IMHO, I would say Gov. Snyder is the best bet, as the measures he has proposed to bridge his state's budget gaps has been less confrontational so far

You're not wrong, but it's kind of strange, since his proposals are arguably the farthest reaching of them all.
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2011, 03:32:10 am »
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IMHO, I would say Gov. Snyder is the best bet, as the measures he has proposed to bridge his state's budget gaps has been less confrontational so far

You're not wrong, but it's kind of strange, since his proposals are arguably the farthest reaching of them all.

Yes, as crazy as the others are, it's not at all a stretch to call Synder's policies fascist.
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2011, 11:58:37 am »
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If the job killer Jennifer Granholm can get re-elected, so can a so-called fascist.
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2011, 12:00:55 pm »
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Branstad.  Proven winner in Iowa. 
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2011, 12:40:19 pm »
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If the job killer Jennifer Granholm can get re-elected, so can a so-called fascist.

You realize that during Granholm's first term, Republicans held the state legislature, right? And during her second term, they still held the State Senate. It's amazing how she got her job-killing policies through a Republican-controlled legislature.
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2011, 07:57:43 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.
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« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2011, 08:08:16 pm »
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It would be wise to remember that Christie went from being disapproved of by 2-1 (although the poll is questioned there is no doubt that he was very unpopular at one point) to being approved of by a range of about 10 to 15 points in just one year. Daniels was DOA in 2008 as late as 2007 with Approvals in the range of Ernie Fletcher and Matt Blunt (both of whom are now gone).



Baker in Mass. is also worth a mention in regards to big approval changes.
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« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2011, 09:05:02 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Well, Obama can aspire to screw over the Democratic party with two bad midterms.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2011, 02:49:41 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2011, 04:13:26 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

     Definitely bad second midterms are much more common than bad first ones. I think I read that 1998 was the best second midterm since 1822.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2011, 05:40:18 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

Ike's first midterm wasnt too bad.  Reagan's second one wasnt too bad either, with Republicans picking up eight governorships. 
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2011, 08:48:45 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

Ike's first midterm wasnt too bad.  Reagan's second one wasnt too bad either, with Republicans picking up eight governorships. 

Governorships are pretty removed from the Presidency. Republicans got slaughtered in the Senate and House in 1986; Democrats lost a lot of Governorships simply because there were so many open seats available for Republicans to pick up. Only 2 of the GOP's pickups (Wisconsin; Texas) came from defeating incumbents.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2011, 08:56:29 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

     Definitely bad second midterms are much more common than bad first ones. I think I read that 1998 was the best second midterm since 1822.

Well, it was first midterm that the President's party gained House seats in since 1934.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2011, 09:30:22 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

Ike's first midterm wasnt too bad.  Reagan's second one wasnt too bad either, with Republicans picking up eight governorships. 

Governorships are pretty removed from the Presidency. Republicans got slaughtered in the Senate and House in 1986; Democrats lost a lot of Governorships simply because there were so many open seats available for Republicans to pick up. Only 2 of the GOP's pickups (Wisconsin; Texas) came from defeating incumbents.

Republicans lost just five seats in the House.  In 2014, I dont see Republicans being able to gain much more in the House unless Democrats are picking up 25-30 seats in 2012. 
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2011, 10:05:05 pm »
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In his favor, Kasich is a good communicator.  And, if Obama wins reelection in 2012, 2014 would traditionally be a good year for the GOP.

President's dont have two bad midterms usually.  2014 could well be a lot like 1998.

Reagan and Ike both had two bad midterms. I thought Obama was Reagan? Tongue

Ike's first midterm wasnt too bad.  Reagan's second one wasnt too bad either, with Republicans picking up eight governorships.  

Ike lost both houses of congress in 1954. In 1958 the Dems crushed the GOP so bad it gave the Dems a 40 year majority in the house.


In 1986, the GOP lost like 8 Senate seats (and the Senate Majority) and a lot of House seats.
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« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2011, 09:06:59 am »
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In 1986, the GOP lost like 8 Senate seats (and the Senate Majority) and a lot of House seats.

Part of which was due to Republicans winning a bunch of seats narrowly with weak incumbents in 1980, particularly in the South. Because 2008 was such a good year for the Democrats in the Senate, they have potential for big losses in 2014... it helps that they don't have any joke senators among their incumbents, Al Franken excepted, but even if Mark Begich is a stellar politico it won't necessarily save him.
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« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2011, 10:30:23 am »
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I didn't know Gov Snyder of Michigan had been promoting fascist policies.  What are they?
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Grumps
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« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2011, 11:05:23 am »
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Corbett.....he's doing all the dirty deeds some will hate fast and furious, which is politically necessary in my view.
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« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2011, 12:22:19 pm »
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There is a pattern with Michigan and Pennsylvania in electing governors from the party opposite to the White House. No more than one break in pattern with Mich. going back to 1978 and Pa. even further to 1938. So, who is smarter: Rick Snyder (R-Mich.) or Tom Corbett (R-Pa.)?
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« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2011, 01:34:00 pm »
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There is a pattern with Michigan and Pennsylvania in electing governors from the party opposite to the White House. No more than one break in pattern with Mich. going back to 1978 and Pa. even further to 1938. So, who is smarter: Rick Snyder (R-Mich.) or Tom Corbett (R-Pa.)?

Corbett......
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