Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2014, 02:45:02 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
| | |-+  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Bacon King)
| | | |-+  2008 - Bush vs. Democrat
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: 2008 - Bush vs. Democrat  (Read 3076 times)
mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1324
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« on: March 16, 2011, 01:59:04 am »
Ignore

If Bush had run for a third term (if it were possible under the Constitution) what would have been the results given his unpopularity? Would it have been a 40+ state sweep against him? Would he have lost a majority of US counties? Discuss with maps etc.
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2891


P
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2011, 11:03:35 am »
Ignore

Hillary vs. Bush



D: 412
R: 126
Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

21st Century Independent
Full Member
***
Posts: 124


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2011, 01:50:36 am »
Ignore

Given that possibility, Bush would have chosen a different VP after 2006 Congressional Victory by Dems to get ready for 2008. Then given his tremendous descent from his mediocre standing, whomever he picked as VP would have run in 08. My thinking is it may have been someone like Tom Ridge with more broad appeal to be competitive.
Logged
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14749


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2011, 10:16:21 pm »
Ignore

Obama 411 vs Bush 127

Logged

Please Senators, don't let the Russians, a folk of alcoholic homophobic, take Crimee
America™
All For America
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 94
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2011, 09:07:07 pm »
Ignore

You did say Democrat....



Bush/Cheney v.s. Michael Moore/ Rosie O'Donnell
Logged
Night Man
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11782
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2011, 03:54:44 pm »
Ignore

You did say Democrat....



Bush/Cheney v.s. Michael Moore/ Rosie O'Donnell

...and for a year hence, no one who truly loved America would eat a salad or drink a wine cooler in public.
Logged
Jay Roosevelt
Newbie
*
Posts: 1
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2011, 01:47:14 am »
Ignore

You have to assume the democrat would have won every state Obama did and then some. Missouri probably, North Dakota maybe. It's hard for me to imagine Bush carrying many states in the fall of '08 - especially against a more moderate democrat. Maybe against Obama he'd have carried most of McCain's states, but I think even then you'd have to assume he loses at least 2-3 additional states.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1639


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2011, 06:07:28 pm »
Ignore

Just for kicks!


George W. Bush (R-TX)/Dick Cheney (R-WY)--315 Electoral Votes
Howard Dean (D-VT)/Al Sharpton (D-NY)--223 Electoral Votes

It was the only scenario I could think of where Bush wins by a comfortable margin.  If you want a >500 electoral college victory for Bush...just flip the Democratic ticket. 
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3442
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2011, 06:32:37 pm »
Ignore



Clinton/Obama- 381
Bush/Cheney- 157
Logged
DS0816
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 973
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2011, 06:31:01 pm »
Ignore

If Bush had run for a third term (if it were possible under the Constitution) what would have been the results given his unpopularity? Would it have been a 40+ state sweep against him? Would he have lost a majority of US counties? Discuss with maps etc.

Bush's home state, Cheney's home state, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and, best performance, Oklahoma. As for the rest of the less than 100 electoral votes … who gives a damn?!
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2011, 08:25:01 pm »
Ignore



Bush/Cheney vs. Clinton/Manchin

Bush would have been lucky to have done as well as Carter in 1980.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2011, 08:29:53 pm by SayNotoJonHuntsman »Logged
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15516


Political Matrix
E: -8.39, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2011, 08:27:10 pm »
Ignore

Just for kicks!


George W. Bush (R-TX)/Dick Cheney (R-WY)--315 Electoral Votes
Howard Dean (D-VT)/Al Sharpton (D-NY)--223 Electoral Votes

It was the only scenario I could think of where Bush wins by a comfortable margin.  If you want a >500 electoral college victory for Bush...just flip the Democratic ticket. 

At first I asked why Howard Dean would lose to Bush; he would likely win with Bush being so unpopular. Then I saw Al Sharpton Tongue. Worst VP pick since, well, Palin.
Logged

GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6796
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2011, 08:33:53 pm »
Ignore



Clinton/Obama- 381
Bush/Cheney- 157
This is probably the worst case scenario against any democrat for Bush in 2008. I believe that Bush could win in the 2008 scenario.
Logged
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15516


Political Matrix
E: -8.39, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2011, 11:55:23 am »
Ignore



Clinton/Obama- 381
Bush/Cheney- 157
This is probably the worst case scenario against any democrat for Bush in 2008. I believe that Bush could win in the 2008 scenario.

Logged

Night Man
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11782
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2011, 08:03:04 pm »
Ignore

You have to understand that D turnout would be at least as  high as in real life while R turnout, even with Rove's machine, would be even worse than in real life.

My guess-

Election Day Job Approval- 32%
George W. Bush/ Richard B. Cheney  PV 42.4% 442 EVs
Barack H. Obama/ Joseph R. Biden    PV 56.2%   96 EVs



Or perhaps there would be some 3rd Party emergining


Election Day Job Approval- 32%
George W. Bush/ Richard B. Cheney  PV 36.4% 460 EVs
Barack H. Obama/ Joseph R. Biden    PV 54.9%   78 EVs
Ron Paul/Bob Barr                             PV   7.1%     0 EVs


« Last Edit: July 24, 2011, 08:14:17 pm by FL ST 800.02 »Logged
tb78
tb75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4671
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2011, 10:38:39 am »
Ignore



Bush/Cheney vs. Clinton/Manchin

Bush would have been lucky to have done as well as Carter in 1980.

I would give GA and NC to Bush, but besides that you are right on the money
Logged
Jack1475
Rookie
*
Posts: 20
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2011, 12:29:59 am »
Ignore

I think he would have done about the same as John McCain.  The Republican turnout would be higher, but the Democratic turnout would also be higher as he has both fans and enemies.
Logged
HuckReagan
Rookie
*
Posts: 34
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2011, 08:10:35 am »
Ignore

Bush/Pawlenty ...  226 electoral votes

Obama/Biden....   312 electoral votes

Even though Bush was a unpopular president incumbnent replacing Cheney with Pawlenty increased his electoral vote saving Indiana, North Carolina, and by the skin of their teeth, Florida after heavy campaigning there.
Logged
shua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10282
Russian Federation


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -4.52

View Profile WWW
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2011, 02:23:53 pm »
Ignore

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%

I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
Logged

  

" But freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order."
- Justice Robert Jackson WV SBE v Barnette
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14818
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2011, 02:30:36 pm »
Ignore

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%


Based on the LA taxpayer nomination? Cheesy
I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
Logged

mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1324
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2011, 12:00:45 am »
Ignore

These were Bush's approval numbers on election day according to exit polls....



...not a pretty picture...(I don't have A/D numbers for the CDs in Maine and Nebraska)

I would assume Bush would win states where his approvals are greater than 40%, though maybe not Texas...it's also possible he would win AR and WV due to Obama's poor cultural fit...something like this maybe:



Obama 451
Bush 38
Tossup 49


Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
shua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10282
Russian Federation


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -4.52

View Profile WWW
« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2011, 01:31:28 pm »
Ignore

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%



I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
Based on the LA taxpayer nomination? Cheesy
Yep, that's where I got the idea. I imagine in this scenario Paul goes for the Libertarian rather than the Republican nomination, and is also endorsed by Constitution Party.
Logged

  

" But freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order."
- Justice Robert Jackson WV SBE v Barnette
Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17253
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2011, 02:21:12 pm »
Ignore



Clinton/Obama- 445 EVs
Bush/Cheney- 93 EVs
« Last Edit: September 13, 2011, 02:33:11 pm by Scott »Logged



Liberalrocks
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 840
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2011, 11:40:11 pm »
Ignore



Hillary Clinton-Wes Clark:       56%    447 EV's
George W Bush-Dick Cheney: 43%    91 EV's

Closest State is Bush's home state of Texas which he wins with under 50% of the vote and about 1% point from Clinton taking. Mississippi and Louisiana are also razor close but he narrowly holds them. Clinton takes Georgia by a few hundred votes.
Logged

"If Hillary gave Obama one of her balls they both would have two ! "-James Carville.....Hillary 2016 !
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines