Obama vs. Paul

[NHI]

Let's say Ron Paul wins the nomination by some chance; do you see him beating Barack Obama. For the sake of arguement let's say he picks Marco Rubio as his running mate.

[America™]

It wouldn't be close

[TomC]

I think the above map is generous to Paul. However, I would love to watch the debates in this matchup.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

How's the economy doing?

Ron Paul's run would come down entirely to whether the economy was doing well or not. Would be fun to watch the debates, though. He would probably do better among indies and Dems than most other Republicans, so that would be a bit of a bonus, too.

[Historia Crux]

Wait is this 2012 or 2008?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Wait is this 2012 or 2008?

Given that Paul chooses Rubio, I'd say 2012.

[NHI]

An economy that is still shaky, and unemployment at 8%. Ron Paul manages to pull the upset of the century. He wins the electoral vote, but loses the popular vote.

R: 270: 48.56%
D: 268: 48.60%

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

^What state is the closest?

[NHI]

Ohio.

[tpfkaw]

I don't see a Paul victory without NV and CO - his primary support base is out West.

[tpfkaw]

I think the map for (the rather implausible prospect of) a Paul victory would look something like this (no, seriously):

[Antonio the Sixth]

It wouldn't be close

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I think the map for (the rather implausible prospect of) a Paul victory would look something like this (no, seriously):

Hmm. Looks pretty good but:

-How would he win Maine and Oregon but not Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, or Virginia? Maine and Oregon strike me as being stronger for the Democrats than the aforementioned, and Paul would probably get bonus votes in Pennsylvania for having been born there. Also, how could he lose Alaska? Alaska is very solidly Republican.

[Napoleon]

You don't get bonus points just by being born somewhere. What kind of idiot goes into the voting booth and says "Damn, George W. Bush was born right here in Connecticut even though he talks like an uneducated Texas oilman tool... he's sure as heck got my vote!" Come on, the notion of such a phenomenon is in and of itself patently ridiculous.

Paul would get crushed but I'd consider voting for him.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

With the right VP, it would be a massive Paulslide. Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, New Hampshire,Iowa, Wisconsion, Nevada, Maine,Alaska,  The Solid South, the West minus California, Oregon, and Hawaii would all be in GOP hands.

[Oakvale]

Does anyone predicting a Paul victory actually know what Ron Paul believes? I mean, it's one thing to agree with the guy but to suggest that anything approaching a majority of Americans do so is absurd.

I for one think that advocating the privitization of Social Security will assure a landslide victory for President-elect Paul! Huzzah!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

You don't get bonus points just by being born somewhere. What kind of idiot goes into the voting booth and says "Damn, George W. Bush was born right here in Connecticut even though he talks like an uneducated Texas oilman tool... he's sure as heck got my vote!" Come on, the notion of such a phenomenon is in and of itself patently ridiculous.

Paul would get crushed but I'd consider voting for him.

Sure you do. Obama did just great in Hawaii and received lots of love for being from the state (mind, Hawaii is strongly Democratic anyway, but my point still applies)

Anyway, Pennsylvania is no Democratic stronghold. If Ron Paul was winning states like Oregon and Maine, he would probably win Pennsylvania too, born there or not.

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Certainly gains him support among younguns who don't want to pay into a big ol' ponzi scheme (especially with the birth rate going down and the number of retirees going up). That is also ignoring the fact that SS has been like a piggy bank for the Federal government to break open whenever it needs cash and doesn't want to raise taxes or ask the Federal reserve for some.

Besides that, it isn't an issue unless Obama brings it up (Ron Paul has plenty of other, currently much hated targets to go after), and if he does he will likely regret it (a serious discussion on Social Security, covered by the media, would be a great way to kill support for it and actually let Ron Paul go after it directly. The facts around its funding, its efficiency, etc mean that once you get past the emotional "Oh my god, my Grandpa will be left to die!" kind of outburst, you see quite clearly what a broken system it is).

Really, his biggest weakness would be immigration. Oh, and assuming it wasn't used already, those racist newsletters could be pulled out at the last minute (the more they get used, though, the less affect they have and the more people look into it and figure that he didn't write them anyway, whereas if they are a big surprise in 2012 it could temporarily destroy his chances before he had much of a chance to respond)

Oh, and if the economy is doing great, he will look like a complete buffoon and would doubtless lose worse than Palin, but that is entirely circumstantial (unlike the above two, which are Paul's major weaknesses). If the economy is crumbling, the inverse would occur. Hell, if it was bad enough, we might actually see him win California, Massachusetts, or New York.

[Napoleon]

Hawaii is a bit far different from any state other than (and this is debatable) Alaska.

[tpfkaw]

I think the map for (the rather implausible prospect of) a Paul victory would look something like this (no, seriously):

Hmm. Looks pretty good but:

-How would he win Maine and Oregon but not Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, or Virginia? Maine and Oregon strike me as being stronger for the Democrats than the aforementioned, and Paul would probably get bonus votes in Pennsylvania for having been born there. Also, how could he lose Alaska? Alaska is very solidly Republican.

I do have him winning Indiana...

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are due to his opposition to farm subsidies.  New Mexico and Oregon are R because Paul's brand of libertarianism is by far the strongest in the rural West.  Virginia is because Northern Virginia is entirely dependent on the federal gov't for it's economy - if Paul were the nominee then much of NoVA would vote like DC, and that would be impossible to overcome.  Pennsylvania is because it's a relatively anti-libertarian state (the one that brought us John Murtha, both Bob Caseys, and Rick Santorum).  Florida is because of the large number of retirees who like their Social Security and Medicare, as well as Cubans who like their wars.  Alaska is an interesting case - it's normally heavily Republican, but when push comes to shove, they'll vote whichever way will preserve the federal funds which make up such a large portion of the state's economy.  That's why Alaska was one of LBJ's strongest states in 1964, and why Lisa Murkowski had her incredible victory there last year.  Alaska would go Paul in a landslide, but not in a close election.  Maine and Michigan are Paul because of their relatively large libertarian and paleoconservative movements (Justin Amash, "militias" in Michigan, Paul LePage and last year's GOP convention in Maine...).

[Yelnoc]

I would say this is a best-case scenario for Paul.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana goes to Paul, Yelnac. The Libertarians here would jump to help in that race. If the Libertarians united with the GOP in 2008 Obama would have lost Indiana. If he were the 2012 nom Indiana GOP/Libertarians would smash Obama and no amount of ACORN shenanigans would be able to give him Indiana. Acorn turned Indiana blue. But the heart of this state is the reddest of red and a big haven of the Tea Party. We are not going for Obama twice.

[tmthforu94]

Certainly, with a poor economy, I could see Paul defeating Obama. He would help us make some inroads in the Northeast perhaps, at least better than Huckabee or Palin could do.

[Napoleon]

Did LePage even break 40% in Maine? Come on, it's a pipe dream. There's a reason Collins and Snowe vote the way they do.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

You don't get bonus points just by being born somewhere. What kind of idiot goes into the voting booth and says "Damn, George W. Bush was born right here in Connecticut even though he talks like an uneducated Texas oilman tool... he's sure as heck got my vote!" Come on, the notion of such a phenomenon is in and of itself patently ridiculous.

Correct.

People often don't realize that homestate advantage has more to do with, you know, actually getting elected statewide in the aforementioned state and having a base there, rather than just, uh, being born there.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I'd vote for Paul, but Obama wins.