State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

[Mr.Phips]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

Well, there is a major issue with money -- Republican candidates simply didn't have any in 2009. With Christie as Governor, they do. New Jersey is a state where campaign cash plays a HUGE part in elections, with State Senate candidates frequently going on network TV in New York and Philly.

The GOP is in their best shape, cash-wise, since Whitman was governor. The question is: How much will Christie let the GOP spend when he's not on the ballot, especially when control of either house won't be at stake?

[Mr.Phips]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

Well, there is a major issue with money -- Republican candidates simply didn't have any in 2009. With Christie as Governor, they do. New Jersey is a state where campaign cash plays a HUGE part in elections, with State Senate candidates frequently going on network TV in New York and Philly.

The GOP is in their best shape, cash-wise, since Whitman was governor. The question is: How much will Christie let the GOP spend when he's not on the ballot, especially when control of either house won't be at stake?

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers. 

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

[Mr.Phips]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

The majority of seats Democrats picked up in 1987 were Hudson County seats. I guess 1991 works so far as a money-isn't-everything election, but generally ... money is everything.

[Mr.Phips]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

The majority of seats Democrats picked up in 1987 were Hudson County seats. I guess 1991 works so far as a money-isn't-everything election, but generally ... money is everything.

How about 1989 when Democrats picked up a bunch more seats under Kean?  I also remember a September 1988 special election where Democrats picked up a very Republican district in either Ocean of Monmouth county. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How about 1989 when Democrats picked up a bunch more seats under Kean?  I also remember a September 1988 special election where Democrats picked up a very Republican district in either Ocean of Monmouth county. 

Well, I think I've already conceded the point that the person who spends the most money doesn't always win in New Jersey, and if we're going all the way back into the 1980s, we're not really talking about the same kind of full-contact sport that New Jersey politics turned into with the rise of Norcross in the 1990s.

Still, there are plenty of instances of money winning races that shouldn't have been won. When State Sen. Geist lost in 2003, for instance. Or when McNerney won his first County Executive race in Bergen.

[krazen1211]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

Spot on. In order to flip the chamber, the GOP has to win 2, 14, 38, and probably 4. 4 is out of reach though most likely with the current incumbent.

[rbt48]

I believe that Repbulicans will retain control of both chambers in Louisiana.  They've already clinched the State Senate as in 22 districts they don't have opposition.

In Mississippi, they will retain the Senate and take control of the House.

In Virginia, they will retake the Senate and retain the House.

In New Jersey, they will close the gap in both chambers but fall short of control or parity.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not looking good for Democrats in NJ's District 8 Senate race. Olympian Carl Lewis, who was running as a Democrat, got booted from the ballot by an appellate court.

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

It doesn't really matter; he's been fighting that ballot access case for months, I doubt he's actually had time to campaign in the district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It doesn't really matter; he's been fighting that ballot access case for months, I doubt he's actually had time to campaign in the district.

Well, yes, he wouldn't have won anyway. It's just interesting because he's got a famous name.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Zogby has a poll out that shows Sen. Whelan (D) trailing Assemblyman Polistina (R) by a fraction of a point in NJ's 2nd Senate District race.

Caveats:

• It's Zogby.
• Polling results listed to the tenth of a percent.

Still, this is no surprise. It's supposed to be close. The Republican candidates are far ahead in the race for Assembly, which is also no surprise -- a district like this defaults to the GOP unless there's a reason for it not to.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PolitickerNJ is doing a number of pieces on the top-tier State Senate and Assembly races. Today, they looked at the NJ-07 Assembly race -- Republicans probably have their best shot at winning a seat there in ten years thanks to newly drawn lines, an open seat, a strong GOP challenger, and Diane Allen at the top of the ticket.

http://www.politickernj.com/51665/christie-touts-property-tax-efforts-ld8

They've also taken a look at NJ-38's State Senate race, one of the few competitive ones in the state. Again, a Democratic incumbent made significantly more vulnerable by redistricting.

http://www.politickernj.com/51634/christie-stumps-reforms-bergen-s-election-battlefield

Republicans should be disappointed if they don't pick up anything.

[Frodo]

Why is everyone discussing New Jersey legislative races in this thread? 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I wonder if Carl Genthner can take out crazy ol' Bob Marshall in VA House 13.  It's 3 points more Democrat since redistricting, and now the combined precincts are close to the state as a whole in recent election results.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I wonder if Carl Genthner can take out crazy ol' Bob Marshall in VA House 13.  It's 3 points more Democrat since redistricting, and now the combined precincts are close to the state as a whole in recent election results.

Probably not, the district still has Marshall's base in Prince William County, and Genthner hasn't raised enough money to be competitive.

[Meeker]

Johnny can probably shed more light on this than I can, but there was a special election for the Massachusetts State House tonight where the Green nearly beat the Democrat. An independent finished third while the Republican ended up in fourth.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It was a safe Democratic seat in western Massachusetts (Pittsfield). The Green ran in 2010 and got 45% of the vote in a two-way race with the Democrat, while the Independent was a former Pittsfield City Council member.

[rbt48]

It was a safe Democratic seat in western Massachusetts (Pittsfield). The Green ran in 2010 and got 45% of the vote in a two-way race with the Democrat, while the Independent was a former Pittsfield City Council member.

It sounds like it is an extension of Vermont!

[Frodo]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

Excellent post.  

Clear, factual, and logical.

Actually, there is one other thing I should probably add. I don't know why I didn't think to put this in before. The redistricting battle may well be what determines the outcome of the House elections this year in Mississippi. If McCoy gets his way, that may be enough to hold the House for the Dems. But, if the GOP wins this battle or they run in current districts this year and run in new districts next year, that makes things considerably easier for the GOP.

Someone may find this link interesting: http://www.scribd.com/doc/50413003/Malone-Mathis-Story.  In this article, a sitting Democrat member of the House actually admits that he had the lines of his district on the new map so that he wouldn't have an opponent in the upcoming elections. There's been a lot of, shall we say, curious features about the House Democrats' map. Such as, districts in the Delta region which has lost population roughly equivalent to two House districts being stretched a bit to the east so that region wouldn't lose seats, while the Hattiesburg area, which is growing and is much more Republican-leaning, isn't gaining seats as would be expected.

Here are the current and House-propsed maps if anyone is interested:

Current: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975345/2002-House-map
Proposed: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975251/House-2011-proposal

Edit: BTW, a lot of information about the redistricting battle can be found here: http://majorityinms.com/. I know some will probably complain about the site being Republican-leaning, but they have been keeping close tabs on the process. If anyone has any interest in the subject, you can probably at least find some links you'll find interesting.

How does it look right now?  Will the GOP finally get complete control of the legislature? 

[7,052,770]

It doesn't really matter which party "controls" the Mississippi legislature.  Either way, it's 90% super right wingers.  For whatever reason, the extreme far right is the only group that's mobilized enough to run for the legislature and win.

[Frodo]

It doesn't really matter which party "controls" the Mississippi legislature.  Either way, it's 90% super right wingers.  For whatever reason, the extreme far right is the only group that's mobilized enough to run for the legislature and win.

Perhaps it doesn't matter to you, but it is still interesting to see how much more racially polarized the two parties become in the state once the remaining rural white conservative Democrats are ousted and replaced by Republicans.