State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[Mr.Phips]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

[Mr.Phips]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

Well, there is a major issue with money -- Republican candidates simply didn't have any in 2009. With Christie as Governor, they do. New Jersey is a state where campaign cash plays a HUGE part in elections, with State Senate candidates frequently going on network TV in New York and Philly.

The GOP is in their best shape, cash-wise, since Whitman was governor. The question is: How much will Christie let the GOP spend when he's not on the ballot, especially when control of either house won't be at stake?

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers. 

[Mr.Phips]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

[Mr.Phips]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

The majority of seats Democrats picked up in 1987 were Hudson County seats. I guess 1991 works so far as a money-isn't-everything election, but generally ... money is everything.

How about 1989 when Democrats picked up a bunch more seats under Kean?  I also remember a September 1988 special election where Democrats picked up a very Republican district in either Ocean of Monmouth county. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here is another guy's predictions about the Virginia State Senate outcome. He may be a  Pubbie partisan.

Some of his ratings are full of crap.  Barker a likely loser in a D+6 district?  Puller in a tossup in a D+10 district?  Republicans didnt even pick up any seats like this in 2010.