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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction for New Jersey: Republicans pick up one seat in the State Senate, with Whelan being the casualty. I don't think Kanka has what it takes in 14, I think Van Drew is unbeatable in 1, and while 38 will probably fall to the GOP eventually, I think they'll need a wave at their back to do it. District 36 is simply un-doable with Passaic in it. I think Sen. Addiego will clear 60% in District 8.

The Assembly is harder to predict. Democrats have a good chance at picking up the seat they never should have lost in 4 -- DiCicco is probably the only Republican who is vulnerable on any level. Democrats also have a good shot at picking up the open seat in 2, but I don't think they'll do it -- I think they need a strong Dem year to take a seat there. Republicans have an outside chance at winning one or two in 7, and the Assembly seats in 38 are more vulnerable than the Senate seat since they're lower profile. Districts 1 and 14 are far more competitive on paper than in real life -- Republicans won't win them, and likely won't come close to doing it, either.

I agree with the Senate, because of the third party candidate running in the 2nd, but if a Democrat could survive the Christie victory and the toxic climate of 2009, they should be OK in 2011. 

Well, there is a major issue with money -- Republican candidates simply didn't have any in 2009. With Christie as Governor, they do. New Jersey is a state where campaign cash plays a HUGE part in elections, with State Senate candidates frequently going on network TV in New York and Philly.

The GOP is in their best shape, cash-wise, since Whitman was governor. The question is: How much will Christie let the GOP spend when he's not on the ballot, especially when control of either house won't be at stake?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers. 

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Money isnt everything.  Republicans had more money in the Whitman years and Democrats picked up seats in 1995, 1997, and 1999.  Not to mention that most Democrats who lost in 2010 had far more money than their Republican challengers.  

The only seats that Republicans really lost in 1995, 1997 were super-Democratic seats -- like Cherry Hill-based 6 and Trenton/Princeton-based 15. The GOP lost District 14 in 1999, but that was a scandal turnover. Republicans were able to hold on to a hell of a lot of now unwinnable seats thanks to their money. I mean, my god, they held an Edison-based seat for a decade.

Well, if you wanna go back even farther, Republicans lost a bunch of seats in 1987 when they had Kean's money.   And Republicans gained something like 25 seats in 1991 when Democrats had Florio's money. 

The majority of seats Democrats picked up in 1987 were Hudson County seats. I guess 1991 works so far as a money-isn't-everything election, but generally ... money is everything.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How about 1989 when Democrats picked up a bunch more seats under Kean?  I also remember a September 1988 special election where Democrats picked up a very Republican district in either Ocean of Monmouth county. 

Well, I think I've already conceded the point that the person who spends the most money doesn't always win in New Jersey, and if we're going all the way back into the 1980s, we're not really talking about the same kind of full-contact sport that New Jersey politics turned into with the rise of Norcross in the 1990s.

Still, there are plenty of instances of money winning races that shouldn't have been won. When State Sen. Geist lost in 2003, for instance. Or when McNerney won his first County Executive race in Bergen.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not looking good for Democrats in NJ's District 8 Senate race. Olympian Carl Lewis, who was running as a Democrat, got booted from the ballot by an appellate court.

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It doesn't really matter; he's been fighting that ballot access case for months, I doubt he's actually had time to campaign in the district.

Well, yes, he wouldn't have won anyway. It's just interesting because he's got a famous name.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Zogby has a poll out that shows Sen. Whelan (D) trailing Assemblyman Polistina (R) by a fraction of a point in NJ's 2nd Senate District race.

Caveats:

• It's Zogby.
• Polling results listed to the tenth of a percent.

Still, this is no surprise. It's supposed to be close. The Republican candidates are far ahead in the race for Assembly, which is also no surprise -- a district like this defaults to the GOP unless there's a reason for it not to.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PolitickerNJ is doing a number of pieces on the top-tier State Senate and Assembly races. Today, they looked at the NJ-07 Assembly race -- Republicans probably have their best shot at winning a seat there in ten years thanks to newly drawn lines, an open seat, a strong GOP challenger, and Diane Allen at the top of the ticket.

http://www.politickernj.com/51665/christie-touts-property-tax-efforts-ld8

They've also taken a look at NJ-38's State Senate race, one of the few competitive ones in the state. Again, a Democratic incumbent made significantly more vulnerable by redistricting.

http://www.politickernj.com/51634/christie-stumps-reforms-bergen-s-election-battlefield

Republicans should be disappointed if they don't pick up anything.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The races to watch in New Jersey are thus:

State Senate
There are only two real "battleground" races. In District 2, State Sen. Whelan (D) faces a too-close-to-call battle against Republican Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). In District 38, Sen. Bob Gordon (D) may be on the ropes in an already tough race after a solid week of bad press and conflicts with organized labor over the Xanadu project. Both candidates in SD38 are on NYC network TV with ads.

Republicans have a far lesser shot at District 14, where Megan's Law dad Richard Kanka is facing off against first-term Sen. Linda Greenstein (D). No GOP seats appear to be in danger.

My best guess is that the GOP goes +1 in the State Senate.

State Assembly
Democrats have a stronger majority in the State Assembly, so perhaps it should be no surprise that the GOP found more targets to chase after there.

The GOP-friendly District 1 will be a perpetual target, though Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) has shown the ability to generate genuine coattails in the past. Likely Dem hold x2.

The far more marginal District 2 offers a solid shot for Democrats to gain territory -- incumbent Rep. Polistina is seeking the Senate. Still, polling here shows Republicans likely to hold both seats. Likely GOP hold x2.

GOP Assemblyman DiCicco was a surprise winner on Election Day 2009, picking up a seat in the heavily Democratic 4th District. Redistricting threw him into District 3, and he was written off for dead. That may have been premature -- polling shows DiCicco an even money shot to win one of the two Assembly seats here.

District 7 is strongly Democratic territory, but Republicans think they can pick up a pair of Assembly seats here for a variety of reasons. First, the ticket is led by the incredibly popular State Sen. Diane Allen (R), who has shown a strong ability to deliver coattails in the past. Second, one of the two Assembly seats is open. Third, the GOP has a strong candidate for at least one of the seats in the mayor of Mount Laurel. Fourth, redistricting made this area about 5 points more Republican on the whole. This is probably too-close-to-call.

District 11 recently rose to prominence as a contested zone when Republicans launched a poorly received attack ad at their Dem opponents. This is genuinely GOP territory, but Democrats may be able to make inroads here with a strong candidate thanks to a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

District 14: More competitive on paper than in reality. Expect a solid Democratic hold of both seats.

District 18 was another surprise on Election Night 2009 -- not because Republicans won it, but because they almost did. It's heavily Democratic territory in Middlesex, but all indications are that this area is getting less Democratic and more competitive. Republicans think they have a chance here with Marcia Silvia, who has received a number of endorsements from key Democrats in the area. Also helping the GOP: A number of high-profile corruption charges against Middlesex County Democrats. Republicans shouldn't win here, but Christie was just here campaigning the other day, suggesting that there's at least a glimmer of hope for Team Blue ...

District 27 was made significantly more Republican thanks to redistricting, but with former Gov. Codey topping the ballot, there's real question as to whether GOP attempts at the district are serious. Most are writing a strong GOP campaign here off as "preparing for the future,"possibly for 2013 if the former Governor runs against Christie.

District 38: If Democrats are struggling to hold the Senate seat in D38, then surely the two assembly seats must be vulnerable on some level as well.

My best guess for the Assembly is no change -- a swap of Jim Keenan in LD7 for DiCicco in LD3.