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Author Topic: If Obama wins re-election...  (Read 2290 times)
BushKenya
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« on: March 19, 2011, 07:55:24 pm »
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Who would replace Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?  She has said she will not stay on as Secretary.  Who would President Obama choose to replace her?  Who would replace Defense Secy Robert Gates?  Any other Cabinet-level positions?
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2011, 08:08:17 pm »
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Kerry would do well in either position.
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2011, 08:12:48 pm »
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State: Bill Richardson would be a leading candidate.  Susan Rice another.  Maybe Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg.  Maybe even Dick Lugar.  There's a chance the new Sec of State would be a name thrown out in 2016 chatter- which would be fairly intriguing if it's Richardson given reports that the Clintons still hold a grudge about his Obama endorsement.  I assume Obama would want to avoid a potential presidential candidate as his Sec. of State given the potential complications (being unable to commit to 4 year term for one thing).  I'd bet he's cooled to the idea of plucking Ds out of the senate so I don't see John Kerry in the mix.  Especially if Scott Brown narrowly loses in 2012 and looms as a threat.

I think gGates is grooming a successor.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2011, 08:31:31 pm »

Michele Flournoy has been regarded as the frontrunner to replace Gates for some time now, though there are several other options if it's not her: Richard Danzig, Ray Mabus, John Hamre, Jack Reed.

Despite the possibility of putting a Senate seat at risk (and I'm not sure it would be at *that* much risk), I think Kerry is the frontrunner for Secretary of State (this obviously changes if the Dems retain a majority in the Senate, and hold it by just one seat).  With the House firmly in GOP hands, it's not like Obama can get anything through Congress without GOP consent anyway, so it's not clear that the one Senate seat matters that much.

Kerry has been more or less lobbying for the job for a while now, and seems to be already acting as a de facto deputy SoS.  If it's not Kerry, then probably Jim Steinberg or Susan Rice.  Richardson's a possibility, but the ethical cloud that hung over him in his later years as governor could be an issue.  Richard Lugar is also a dark horse option.
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BushKenya
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2011, 08:35:03 pm »
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Michele Flournoy has been regarded as the frontrunner to replace Gates for some time now, though there are several other options if it's not her: Richard Danzig, Ray Mabus, John Hamre, Jack Reed.

Despite the possibility of putting a Senate seat at risk (and I'm not sure it would be at *that* much risk), I think Kerry is the frontrunner for Secretary of State (this obviously changes if the Dems retain a majority in the Senate, and hold it by just one seat).  With the House firmly in GOP hands, it's not like Obama can get anything through Congress without GOP consent anyway, so it's not clear that the one Senate seat matters that much.

Kerry has been more or less lobbying for the job for a while now, and seems to be already acting as a de facto deputy SoS.  If it's not Kerry, then probably Jim Steinberg or Susan Rice.  Richardson's a possibility, but the ethical cloud that hung over him in his later years as governor could be an issue.  Richard Lugar is also a dark horse option.


The possibility of Dick Lugar brings up another question.  Would the GOP be at much risk of losing his seat if he were to be appointed into the Cabinet?  Could Obama use his appointment as a political maneuver?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2011, 08:40:40 pm »

Michele Flournoy has been regarded as the frontrunner to replace Gates for some time now, though there are several other options if it's not her: Richard Danzig, Ray Mabus, John Hamre, Jack Reed.

Despite the possibility of putting a Senate seat at risk (and I'm not sure it would be at *that* much risk), I think Kerry is the frontrunner for Secretary of State (this obviously changes if the Dems retain a majority in the Senate, and hold it by just one seat).  With the House firmly in GOP hands, it's not like Obama can get anything through Congress without GOP consent anyway, so it's not clear that the one Senate seat matters that much.

Kerry has been more or less lobbying for the job for a while now, and seems to be already acting as a de facto deputy SoS.  If it's not Kerry, then probably Jim Steinberg or Susan Rice.  Richardson's a possibility, but the ethical cloud that hung over him in his later years as governor could be an issue.  Richard Lugar is also a dark horse option.


The possibility of Dick Lugar brings up another question.  Would the GOP be at much risk of losing his seat if he were to be appointed into the Cabinet?  Could Obama use his appointment as a political maneuver?

I'm assuming that Lugar is not reelected:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=132367.0

The scenario would be that Lugar gets Mike Castled, and then Obama picks him to serve in his Cabinet, in order to increase the number of news stories that say "Secretary of State Richard Lugar, who was dumped by extremists within his own party."
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2011, 08:59:30 pm »
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It's not just politics.  I think Lugar somewhat mentored Obama when they were on Foreign Relations committee together.  They also traveled together on missions.  If Obama wants Kerry for State, he should tell him now so he can resign in time for the election for his seat to coincide with Obama's and the other seat. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2011, 09:02:41 pm »

Yes, there is a certain logic to picking Lugar that goes beyond just politics.  Problem is, by the time Obama's 2nd term starts, Lugar would be 80 years old.  How long would he really last in this job?
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BushKenya
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2011, 09:57:45 pm »
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Yes, there is a certain logic to picking Lugar that goes beyond just politics.  Problem is, by the time Obama's 2nd term starts, Lugar would be 80 years old.  How long would he really last in this job?


Would he be in good enough shape in his early 80's to travel extensively around the world?
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2011, 08:54:43 am »
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Kerry is actively auditioning for the job in his public statements, it seems like.
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2011, 01:35:20 pm »
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State: Bill Richardson would be a leading candidate.
Egads no.   His term as Governor didnt end well.   Plus I think Obama needs fresh faces, not just recycling the same set of people.  
« Last Edit: March 22, 2011, 09:58:42 pm by WillK »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2011, 04:05:59 pm »
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Evan Bayh?
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2011, 04:54:46 pm »
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Who I want? Kerry
Who is likely to be selected? Kerry

=)
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2011, 10:57:39 pm »
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Here's an interesting possibility for SOS.

Former President Bill Clinton.  

Talk about an Obama cabinet secetary with star power.
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2011, 10:59:43 pm »
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Evan Bayh?

Why not Zell Miller?
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Senator Napoleon
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2011, 11:02:54 pm »
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Evan Bayh?

I think Democrats would rather have another (soon-to-be) former Indiana Senator for the position. Evan Bayh is a Faux News backstabber. Sometimes respectability outweighs partisanship. I wanted to say ideology there but I can't imagine Bayh having one at all.
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2011, 11:04:31 pm »
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For Secretary of Defense, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed.

The ideal pick.
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2011, 11:06:30 pm »
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For Secretary of Defense, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed.

The ideal pick.

Kucinch would be ideal, although even if Obama was a decent President, he'd still never choose him.
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« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2011, 11:15:00 pm »
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Here's an interesting possibility for SOS.

Former President Bill Clinton.  

Talk about an Obama cabinet secetary with star power.

Clearly Bill Clinton will not be asked, nor would he accept, this is fanciful, so I will have to go with the popular concensus, John Kerry.  He would do well as SOS.
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« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2011, 11:21:14 pm »
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To show a spirit of bipartisanship, how about Maine Senator Susan Collins for Secretary of Defense. 

She has the qualifications.
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« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2011, 11:26:14 pm »
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To show a spirit of bipartisanship, how about Maine Senator Susan Collins for Secretary of Defense. 

She has the qualifications.

Oh yeah, appointing Republican Senators from New England to cabinet positions has worked out real well for Obama. Obama should quit trying to appease the Republicans and try being an actual Democrat for once.
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« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2011, 11:32:21 pm »
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To show a spirit of bipartisanship, how about Maine Senator Susan Collins for Secretary of Defense. 

She has the qualifications.

Oh yeah, appointing Republican Senators from New England to cabinet positions has worked out real well for Obama. Obama should quit trying to appease the Republicans and try being an actual Democrat for once.

Bipartisanship never goes out of style, especially when it is in the best interests of the nation.
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2011, 11:36:32 pm »
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Ed Case
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2011, 12:43:03 am »
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Michele Flournoy has been regarded as the frontrunner to replace Gates for some time now, though there are several other options if it's not her: Richard Danzig, Ray Mabus, John Hamre, Jack Reed.

Despite the possibility of putting a Senate seat at risk (and I'm not sure it would be at *that* much risk), I think Kerry is the frontrunner for Secretary of State (this obviously changes if the Dems retain a majority in the Senate, and hold it by just one seat).  With the House firmly in GOP hands, it's not like Obama can get anything through Congress without GOP consent anyway, so it's not clear that the one Senate seat matters that much.

Kerry has been more or less lobbying for the job for a while now, and seems to be already acting as a de facto deputy SoS.  If it's not Kerry, then probably Jim Steinberg or Susan Rice.  Richardson's a possibility, but the ethical cloud that hung over him in his later years as governor could be an issue.  Richard Lugar is also a dark horse option.


The possibility of Dick Lugar brings up another question.  Would the GOP be at much risk of losing his seat if he were to be appointed into the Cabinet?  Could Obama use his appointment as a political maneuver?

Huge risk -- especially if a Vitriol Party type attempts to succeed him.  Note the rarity of successes among Senate appointees at holding onto a Senate seat.

If President Obama should seek Dick Lugar as Secretary of State, then such is for his quality on matters of foreign policy. 
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2011, 08:40:59 am »
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To show a spirit of bipartisanship, how about Maine Senator Susan Collins for Secretary of Defense. 

She has the qualifications.

No way is he going to do that.......he needs to appoint someone in 2011 when Gates retires, and that person will likely stay on til the end if he wins in 2012.

This appointment, in my view, is far more crucial than whatever he does for SoS.
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