WI-PPP: Walker (R) would lose the election now

[Tender Branson]

If you could do last fall’s election for Governor over again, would you vote for Democrat Tom Barrett or Republican Scott Walker?

Tom Barrett ........... 52%
Scott Walker.......... 45%

February 24-27, 2011
Survey of 768 Wisconsin voters

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/BarrettWalkerRematchResults.pdf

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oooh, but all the Republican hacks were making baseless accusations that the majority supported him and his policies! You mean they were wrong?

[cinyc]

What did PPP poll exactly?   Is it registered voters?  Likely voters? All I can tell is that 7% of respondents didn't bother to vote in the 2010 election - not exactly the type of folks who'd vote in a rematch, anyway.

[Tender Branson]

What did PPP poll exactly?   Is it registered voters?  Likely voters? All I can tell is that 7% of respondents didn't bother to vote in the 2010 election - not exactly the type of folks who'd vote in a rematch, anyway.

PPP always polls Registered Voters, except 1 or 2 months before the election where they use LV.

[Dgov]

Remember that this is a PPP poll without their LV screen (Which was about 11 points more Republican than their RV screen), and their last one before the 2010 election was 9 point edge.

In other words, this means if you compare it to their last pre-election poll, Walker's only lost about 5 relative points--which considering he's actually taking on controversial legislation is pretty good for him.

That means that the only reason Barret is doing better now is because PPP's polling different electorates--Walker is tied among people who voted in 2010.

EDIT:  Spaced on PPP polling data

EDIT:  It appears that i was off again.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, this is actually pretty good for Walker.  Remember that this is a PPP poll without their LV screen (Which was about 11 points more Republican than their RV screen), and their last one before the 2010 election was a tie.

In other words, this means Walker's actually gained relative ground since getting elected in PPP polls, as he's gone from a tie to a 7 point deficit in an electorate that's 11 points more Democrat.

Their last poll before the election had a 53-44 Walker lead with a 34-30 Republican sample.

This poll has a 52-45 Barrett lead with a 33-32 Democratic sample.

Walker lost more ground overall than what the change in the samples might suggest.

The most interesting finding though is that Walker led Independents in the pre-election poll by 54-40, but now he's losing them 44-49.

[Dgov]

LOL, this is actually pretty good for Walker.  Remember that this is a PPP poll without their LV screen (Which was about 11 points more Republican than their RV screen), and their last one before the 2010 election was a tie.

In other words, this means Walker's actually gained relative ground since getting elected in PPP polls, as he's gone from a tie to a 7 point deficit in an electorate that's 11 points more Democrat.

Their last poll before the election had a 53-44 Walker lead with a 34-30 Republican sample.

This poll has a 52-45 Barrett lead with a 33-32 Democratic sample.

Walker lost more ground overall than what the change in the samples might suggest.

The most interesting finding though is that Walker led Independents in the pre-election poll by 54-40, but now he's losing them 44-49.

You caught me before i fixed my mistake.

[Tender Branson]

Also the exit poll in WI was rather similar to the final PPP poll before the election.

The exit poll was much more Democratic though. PPP had a R+4 sample, the Exit poll showed a D+1 sample. That was probably the main reason why Barrett did better on election day that what PPP projected. Walker only won by 5.8 points, not by 9 like PPP said - because more Dems turned out.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh, that's sooo sweet, Wisconsin. Now Walker would lose reelection and Feingold would be favored to return to the Senate...

But wait, thanks to you we have plactic man in the Senate for six years and Walker in gubernatorial mansion for four years.

Too late. You sucks.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Oh, that's sooo sweet, Wisconsin. Now Walker would lose reelection and Feingold would be favored to return to the Senate...

But wait, thanks to you we have plactic man in the Senate for six years and Walker in gubernatorial mansion for four years.

Too late. You sucks.

Indeed. As nice as this poll is as an "I told you so!" after the fact, it only reinforces my disdain for "independent" voters.

[DrScholl]

The lesson is to think very carefully about who you choose to vote for.

[The Dowager Mod]

It will be an interesting recall vote next year, too bad that idiot Kleefisch is Lt. Gov.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Feingold?

[Napoleon]

Prime example of what is referred to as buyer's remorse. I feel for the people of Wisconsin.

[Bacon King]

It will be an interesting recall vote next year, too bad that idiot Kleefisch is Lt. Gov.

Isn't that the "clock marriage" lady?

[The Dowager Mod]

It will be an interesting recall vote next year, too bad that idiot Kleefisch is Lt. Gov.

Isn't that the "clock marriage" lady?

     

[Dgov]

PPP's got their follow-up numbers, and it looks pretty decent for Walker.  Democrats and Unions technically "win" every poll, but only by a handful of points each time, and usually within the margin of error.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0301930.pdf

[timothyinMD]

And in Maryland, Martin O'Malley earned a 35% approval rating in 2007-08 after the '07 tax increases.  In the end, it didn't matter

[California8429]

Oooh, but all the Republican hacks were making baseless accusations that the majority supported him and his policies! You mean they were wrong?

No actually, it's liberal media making it look like everyone's going to be killed or something. Walker's plan STILL puts them in a much better position than most states for public labor unions.

[Tender Branson]

New "We Ask America" Poll:

Date of Poll: 3/27/2011
Participants: 1,693 Wisconsin residents
Margin of Error: ±2.38%

43.7% Approve
54.9% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/28/crossfire/